省域能源消费对经济增长的作用

发布时间：2018-01-07 16:26

本文关键词：省域能源消费对经济增长的作用　出处：《广西师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着人类社会的不断发展,资源能源问题已日益成为制约经济前进的绊脚石。低碳经济逐渐成为新时代人类进步的又一大挑战。能源环境问题己成为全球关注的焦点,从2003年《能源白皮书》的问世到2009年联合国气候会议的召开,各国均致力于解决能源环境问题。我国作为二氧化碳排放量最多的国家,节能减排任重道远。低碳经济实质是能源高效利用,清洁能源开发,追求绿色GDP的问题。我国目前正处于城市化和工业化快速发展的阶段,能源资源的有限性与经济发展所面临的对其的刚性需求之间的矛盾日益激化。随着经济的不断发展,能源资源表现出对经济增长的约束,制约了经济的进一步发展,在保持经济发展的同时如何提高能源的利用效率是我们目前需要解决的问题。我国地缘辽阔,各地资源禀赋不同,资源能源表现出的先天优势将对该地区的经济发展产生显著影响,这种能源资源表现出的集聚现象,不利于提高我国总体的能源强度,资源分布的不均势必会阻碍区域经济的整体发展。面对区域间能源资源禀赋的差异,各地区所表现出的能源对经济增长的作用各异,一刀切的经济增长策略不适合全国整体的经济发展,因此如何协调区域能源资源以促进全国经济的发展事关重要。鉴于此,本文在分析国内外相关文献的基础上,分析对比我国各省域能源资源现状,以及各省市地区经济增长状况,分析各省能源消费对经济的作用。本文拟从省域人均能源消费出发,同时借助经济增长模型,研究不同区域间能源消费增长率的阀值,最后结合实际人均能源消费分析不同地区能源消费对其经济增长的作用,并试图解释经济增长背后,集聚的负外部性。具体地,首先将经济增长作为因变量,以资本存量、劳动力、能源消费三要素生产函数为基础对我国30个省域(西藏除外)1990-2011年面板数据进行全面分析,以找寻经济增长背后各生产要素的影响程度；紧接着将我国30个省域划分为北方、南方及西部地区三个区域,再分别对这三个区域进行面板数据回归,以此来阐释各生产要素在不同区域间对经济增长产生的作用不同。最后,本文拟通过面板门槛回归技术,以人均能源消费作为门限变量,试图寻找其阀值,以此全面分析我国30个省市(西藏除外)经济所处状态,从而合理分配能源,促进区域协调发展。通过上述实证检验,得到如下结论：第一,在对我国30个省域整体进行面板数据回归发现,将能源消费加入到两部门生产函数中是合理的。资本存量、劳动力以及能源消费对经济增长均表现出显著的正向拉动作用,但影响程度不同,影响系数大小依次为能源消费、资本存量、劳动力,因此可以看出能源消费对经济增长的作用不容忽视。因此将能源消费作为生产要素之一加入到经济增长模型当中具有实践性的指导意义。第二,在将我国30个省域划分为北方、南方及西部地区后分别进行回归发现,不同区域间各生产要素对其经济增长影响系数存在差异。其中能源消费影响系数在三个区域均表现出显著的正向作用,在北方地区超过了1,而在其他两个区域均小于1,可见能源消费在北方地区对经济的发展做出了很大贡献,而相对而言西部地区要偏小；资本存量影响系数同样在三个区域间均表现出显著的正向影响系数,但其差别不大,北方相对略高于南方及西部地区；而劳动力对经济增长的影响只有在西部地区表现出显著的负向作用,而在北方及南方均不显著,且系数均为负,此种现象表明劳动力在我国三个区域间相对过剩的现状。第三,在上述经济增长模型中,对全国30个省域1990-2011年间数据进行面板门限回归发现,以人均能源消费为门限变量,存在明显的门限效应且门限值接近真实值,以能源消费为核心变量分析时得出不同省域能源消费对经济增长表现的作用不同,具体在低于门限变量时表现为显著的负向作用,一旦超过门限值则表现出显著的正向作用。从分析结果可以看出在保证经济增长的同时,不同省域间生产要素的合理分配必不可少,同时政府在制定节能减排目标与任务时要针对不同的省域制定不同的任务,这样更加科学合理。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of human society, resources and energy issues have become the obstacle that restricts economic progress. Low carbon economy has become a big challenge and a new era of human progress. Energy and environmental problems have become the focus of global attention, held from 2003 "energy white paper > came to the 2009 UN Climate Conference, all countries are committed to to solve the energy and environmental issues. China's carbon dioxide emissions as the most populous country, energy saving and emission reduction work. The essence of low carbon economy is the efficient use of energy, clean energy development, the pursuit of green GDP. China is currently in the rapid development of the City and the stage of industrialization, the contradiction between the rigid demand faced by energy resources the limitation and economic development is increasingly intensified. With the development of economy, energy and resources show the constraints on economic growth, restricted the economic in Step by step, how to improve the efficiency of energy utilization while maintaining economic development is a problem we need to solve at present.
China's geopolitical vast resources around the different energy resources show the advantage of will have a significant impact on the economic development of the region, the agglomeration of energy resources show, is not conducive to improving the energy intensity of China's overall development, the overall resource distribution is not balance will hinder the regional economy. In the face of regional differences energy resources, all regions showed energy had various effects on economic growth, economic growth strategy across the board is not suitable for the country's overall economic development, so how to coordinate the regional energy resources is important to promote the development of the national economy.
In view of this, based on the analysis of the related literature at home and abroad, analysis of the current situation of China's energy resources of all provinces and cities, regional economic growth situation, analysis of energy consumption on the economic role of the provinces. This paper starts from the per capita energy consumption province, at the same time with the economic growth model of energy consumption growth in different regions the rate of the threshold, according to the analysis of energy consumption on the economic growth in different regions of the actual per capita energy consumption, and tries to explain behind economic growth, the negative externality agglomeration. Specifically, the economic growth as the dependent variable, the stock of capital, labor, energy consumption of three elements of the production function based on China 30 provinces (except Tibet) 1990-2011 panel data to conduct a comprehensive analysis, to find the influence degree of economic growth behind the various factors of production; followed by China's 30 provinces plan The north is divided into three regions, the southern and western regions, respectively, of the three areas of the panel data regression, in order to explain the production factors to economic growth in different regions of different functions. Finally, this paper proposed by the panel threshold regression techniques, per capita energy consumption as the threshold variable, trying to find the this threshold, a comprehensive analysis of 30 provinces of China (except Tibet) the state economy, and rational allocation of energy, promoting coordinated regional development. Through the empirical analysis, conclusions are obtained as follows:
First, in our country 30 provinces overall regression panel data, the energy consumption was added to the two sector production function is reasonable. The stock of capital, labor and energy consumption on economic growth showed a significant positive effect, but the impact is different, the size of order influence coefficient of energy consumption, capital the stock of labor, it can be seen that the energy consumption on economic growth can not be ignored. Therefore, the energy consumption as one of the factors of production into the economic growth model with practical guidance.
In second, China's 30 provinces will be divided into North, South and west regions respectively after the regression analysis showed that different regions of each factor of production of the influence coefficient differences in economic growth. The impact of energy consumption coefficient in the three regions showed a significant positive effect, more than 1 in the northern region, and in the other two regions were less than 1, visible energy consumption in the northern area of economic development has made a great contribution, while the western region are smaller; the capital stock also influence coefficient in three regions showed a positive influence coefficient is significant, but the difference was not significant, the north is higher than the South and west area and labor; the impact on economic growth in the western region only showed significant negative effects, while in the north and South were not significant, and the coefficient is negative, this phenomenon shows that the labor force in our country The relative surplus between the three regions.
In third, the economic growth model, the national 30 provinces during 1990-2011 data panel threshold regression found that the per capita energy consumption as the threshold variable, obvious threshold effect and the threshold value is close to the true value to energy consumption as the core variable analysis to different provincial energy consumption on economic growth performance the effect of different, specific below the threshold variables showed significant negative effects, once exceeded the threshold showed a significant positive effect. From the results of the analysis can be seen in ensuring economic growth at the same time, the reasonable distribution of different provincial essential factors of production, at the same time, the government in the formulation of energy-saving emission reduction targets and tasks to develop different tasks in different provinces, it is more scientific and reasonable.

【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F426.2;F206

【参考文献】