我国沿海进口煤炭储备基地选址研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 00:34

本文关键词：我国沿海进口煤炭储备基地选址研究　出处：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国煤炭供需呈现背离局面,东部地区,特别是沿海地区,经济发达,工业发展速度快,煤炭需求相对旺盛,但这些沿海省市的煤炭产量却很低,需要从其他省区调入。而在这庞大的调入量当中,进口煤炭的比率不断上升,成为保证我国沿海地区煤炭安全可靠供应的重要力量。同时,国际海运费也波动下行,进口煤炭贸易日益便利,与受运力瓶颈及高生产成本因素制约的国内煤炭相比具有明显的比价优势。因而,探讨我国沿海地区进口煤炭储备,对我国沿海地区经济的持续稳定发展具有重要的作用。本文首先分析了煤炭需求的影响因素,运用协整理论对国民经济、产业结构、能源结构等因素进行分析,建立了基于协整理论的煤炭需求模型,对我国煤炭需求进行了预测,并根据近年来进口煤炭占煤炭总需求平均比重,对未来我国进口煤炭需求做出预测,为我国沿海进口煤炭储备基地的规模决策提供了依据。其次,建立了基于模糊优选的进口煤炭储备基地选址模型。由于东南沿海地区对进口煤炭的需求更为迫切,因此以华东地区和华南地区为主,分别以宁波-舟山港、上海港、连云港港,广州港、防城港、珠海港为沿海进口煤炭储备基地备选地址,建立多层次评价指标体系,并对各备选方案进行模糊优选,最后得到各备选方案的优选排序。最后,借鉴石油战略储备的相相关经验,对影响进口煤炭储备规模的因素进行了分析,并建立了基于VPRS的进口煤炭储备规模决策方法,为我国合理确定沿海进口煤炭储备规模提供了一个思路和可行方案。
[Abstract]:China's coal supply and demand showing departure from situation, the eastern region, especially in coastal areas, economic development, industrial development speed, coal demand is relatively strong, but the coastal provinces of coal production is very low, need to be transferred from other provinces. In this huge amount transferred, the ratio of coal imports continue to rise, become the guarantee an important force for a reliable supply of coal mine safety in China's coastal areas. At the same time, the international freight fluctuation downward, imported coal trade has become more and more convenient, compared with restricted capacity bottlenecks and high production cost of domestic coal has obvious price advantage. Therefore, on imports of coal reserves in the coastal area of China, which plays an important role in the sustained and stable the economic development of the coastal areas of China.
This paper first analyzes the factors affecting coal demand, using cointegration theory to the national economy, industrial structure, energy structure and other factors, the establishment of coal demand model based on cointegration theory, the demand for coal in China is forecasted, and according to the recent coal imports accounted for the total coal demand forecast average proportion. The future of China's imports of coal demand, provides the basis for China's coastal imported coal reserve base of the scale decision.
Secondly, a location model of fuzzy optimization based on imported coal reserve base. Because the demand for imported coal in southeast coastal areas is more urgent, therefore in East China and Southern China regions, respectively, in Ningbo - Zhoushan port, Shanghai port, Lianyungang port, Guangzhou port, Fangchenggang port, Zhuhai coastal imported coal reserve base alternative the address, the establishment of a multi-level evaluation index system, and for each alternative fuzzy optimization, finally get the optimal ordering of the alternatives.
Finally, relevant experience of strategic oil reserves, the influence factors of imported coal reserves are analyzed, and the establishment of the imported coal reserve decision method based on VPRS, provides a feasible solution for our ideas and reasonably determine the coastal imported coal reserves.

【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.61;F426.21;F552

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