中国汽车制造企业财务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 03:31

本文关键词：中国汽车制造企业财务风险预警研究　出处：《广西科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代以来，随着经济的高速发展，中国汽车制造业取得了蓬勃发展，已成为中国重要的支柱产业之一。汽车产量由1980年的22万辆迅速增长到2012年的1927.18万辆，销量从1996年的14.59万辆增长到2012年的1930.64万辆。汽车产业的集中度、制造能力、管理水平都有显著地提高。汽车产业结构随着中国加入WTO后得到了不断的升级和调整，企业间的兼并重组也被不断推进。同时，国外汽车制造企业进入中国市场的速度日益加快，导致国内汽车制造企业生产经营的内外部竞争环境进一步激烈化。此外，兼并重组也给企业带来了潜在风险，部分企业开始出现资金周转不灵、偿债能力及主营业务能力下降等不利现象。中国汽车制造企业在面临良好发展机遇的同时也将承受更大的经营风险和财务风险。目前国内外对财务风险预警的研究较多，但由于各类型企业面临的情况不同，财务风险预警的应用也没有达到预想的效果。中国汽车制造企业是资金密集型企业，投资规模大、回收期长，市场环境复杂，财务活动可能存在各类风险。因此，对中国汽车制造企业财务风险进行准确的分析不仅关系到企业的健康发展，而且也是市场竞争体制的客观要求。鉴于此，，本文结合财务风险管理理论以及汽车制造企业自身的特点，利用小波神经网络模型、预警结果分析等定量和定性分析相结合的方法，对中国汽车制造企业的财务风险预警进行了较为深入的探讨。本文首先通过对企业财务风险预警理论进行归纳和总结，界定了财务风险和财务风险预警的概念，概述了与企业财务风险预警相关的理论，分析了中国汽车制造企业的发展历程以及风险管理现状，并从内、外部环境两方面对其成因进行分析。然后，以选择预警模型、选取预警模型样本及指标、构建财务风险预警模型、对模型进行实证分析的基本思路建立了基于小波神经网络的中国汽车制造企业财务风险预警模型。最后，利用本文所构建的预警模型对某一具体汽车制造企业财务风险状况进行预测，并针对该企业预警结果提出相应的防范对策。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, with the rapid development of economy, China's automobile manufacturing industry has made vigorous development. It has become one of the most important pillar industries in China. Car production increased rapidly from 220,000 in 1980 to nineteen million two hundred and seventy-one thousand and eight hundred in 2012. Sales rose from 145,900 in 1996 to nineteen million three hundred and six thousand and four hundred in 2012. The concentration and manufacturing capabilities of the auto industry. With China's entry into WTO, the structure of automobile industry has been continuously upgraded and adjusted, and the merger and reorganization among enterprises has been continuously promoted. The speed of foreign automobile manufacturing enterprises entering the Chinese market is accelerating day by day, which leads to the internal and external competition environment of domestic automobile manufacturing enterprises becoming more intense. In addition, merger and reorganization also bring potential risks to enterprises. Some companies are starting to experience liquidity problems. At the same time, the Chinese automobile manufacturing enterprises will also bear greater operating and financial risks while facing good development opportunities. At present, there are many researches on financial risk early warning at home and abroad, but due to the different situations faced by different types of enterprises. The application of financial risk warning has not achieved the desired results. Chinese automobile manufacturing enterprises are capital-intensive enterprises with large scale of investment, long payback period and complex market environment. Therefore, it is not only related to the healthy development of enterprises, but also the objective requirements of the market competition system. This paper combines the theory of financial risk management and the characteristics of automobile manufacturing enterprises, using wavelet neural network model, early warning results analysis and other quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. This paper makes a deep discussion on the financial risk early warning of the automobile manufacturing enterprises in China. This paper first summarizes the theory of enterprise financial risk early warning, defines the concept of financial risk and financial risk early warning, and summarizes the theory related to enterprise financial risk early warning. This paper analyzes the development history and risk management status of Chinese automobile manufacturing enterprises, and analyzes the causes of its formation from two aspects of internal and external environment. Then, to select the early warning model, early warning model samples and indicators. The financial risk early warning model is constructed, and the basic idea of empirical analysis of the model is established. Finally, the financial risk early warning model of Chinese automobile manufacturing enterprises is established based on wavelet neural network. The financial risk situation of a specific automobile manufacturing enterprise is forecasted by the early warning model constructed in this paper, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward for the early warning result of the enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：广西科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.471

【参考文献】