山东省城市化与能源消费综合评价及协调性分析

发布时间：2018-01-12 00:35

本文关键词：山东省城市化与能源消费综合评价及协调性分析　出处：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪是“城市的世纪”，城市发展已经成为中国社会全面发展的关键。2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获奖者之一斯蒂格利茨认为城市化问题居于新世纪中国面临三大挑战之首，中国城市化目前存在很多问题，现状仍然不容乐观。能源是现代社会最重要的物质基础，是发展国民经济的基本条件之一。能源贯穿于经济运行的每一个环节，是现代社会不可或缺的生活、生产资料。能源要素的基础性和稀缺性使得能源要素成为对经济发展的制约要素之一。化石能源的大量消费，对生态环境造成的影响也日益严重。城市化水平对能源消费具有双向的影响作用。一般来说，城市化水平越高，对能源消费的需求就越高，因而能源供给的重要性也就越大；同时，在能源供给有约束的情况下，能源消费结构不合理，反过来又会抑制城市化进程。当今，正处于城市化快速推进阶段，能源消费刚性需求比较大。在这一阶段，如果在能源消费与城市化的政策导向发生偏差，将会导致大规模的资源无效配置，给未来的城市化发展造成障碍。在这种背景下，加强对城市化、能源消费以及二者之间的协调性问题的关注和研究，不仅具有积极的学术理论意义，更是对城市发展、能源消费结构调整等相关政策的制定有重要的实践参考价值。考虑到我国地区之间城市化水平与能源消费情况差异比较大，视角深入到具体地区的研究较少，所以，本文以山东省城市化水平与能源消费状况作为研究对象，来分析二者的协调度问题，从而为把握山东省能源战略方向，保证山东省城市化健康持续发展提出合理的政策建议。本文共分为六个部分：第一部分为引言，主要是对研究背景、研究目的和意义、国内外相关研究现状、研究方法及论文结构和论文的创新与不足等情况做出相关说明。第二部分为城市化与能源消费相关理论介绍。第三部分以1978—2008年为考察时间段，利用主成分分析方法分别对这期间山东省城市化水平和能源消费情况进行综合评价。第四部分综合运用熵变方程法、状态协调度函数法等实证方法，分析山东省城市化与能源消费之间的协调性，得到山东省城市化与能源消费之间静态和动态的协调关系。第五部分利用时间序列回归、普通最小二乘法、协整理论等实证方法，对山东省的城市化水平和伴随着城市化进程的能源需求量进行预测。第六部分是对全文工作的总结，并根据研究结果提出相关政策建议。本文主要研究结论如下：（1）山东省城市化与能源消费综合得分总体上均呈上升趋势，但是城市化从增长速度上看，表现出一定的阶段性，而能源消费则具有波动性。（2）基于熵变法的研究结果，发现考察期间内，城市化与能源消费有14年处于协调发展状态，10年是基本协调状态，另外6年则处于相当不协调状态。（3）通过状态协调度函数方法分析，两者之间的关系静态协调性上具有一定的波动性，而动态协调性方面，以1992年作为转折点，之前处于高度协调状态，之后呈下降趋势。（4）2015年山东省城市化水平将达到47.12%，能源消费总量为6.63亿吨标准煤，约为2005年能源消费量的2.81倍；2020年城市化水平将为54.04%，能源消费总量是6.65亿吨标准煤，约为2005年能源消费量的2.82倍。作为政策建议，文中指出：山东省必须在提高能源利用质量的同时，适当控制城市化进程速度，维持城市化与能源消费之间的协调发展。借助城市化发展对于工业化进程的影响，积极调整产业结构和产品结构，使其朝着更有利于节能环保的方向演进，同时建立有助于资源节约型的城市化进程模式。
[Abstract]:Twenty-first Century is the century of the city, "city development has become a key.2001 Chinese social development one of the winners of Nobel prize in economics Stiglitz believes that the city problem is in the new century Chinese faces three major challenges in the first, Chinese city at present there are many problems, the status quo is still not optimistic.
Energy is the most important material foundation of modern society, is one of the basic conditions for the development of the national economy. Energy throughout every aspect of the economy, is the indispensable part of the modern society life and production data. The key elements of energy and energy scarcity makes elements become one of the factors that restrict the economic development of the consumption of fossil fuels. The impact on the ecological environment has become increasingly serious.
City level has an effect on the energy consumption of the two. In general, the higher the level of the city, the energy consumption demand is higher, so the importance of energy supply is higher; at the same time, in the energy supply constraints, unreasonable energy consumption structure, which in turn will inhibit the process of city. Today, is in the stage of rapid improvement of city, energy consumption demand rigidity is relatively large. At this stage, if there is deviation in energy consumption and city policy, will lead to large-scale resource allocation, create an obstacle to the development of the city did not come.
In this context, to strengthen the city, the problem of coordination between energy consumption and two of the attention and research, not only has theoretical significance and positive, is to the city development, has important practical reference value for the adjustment of energy consumption structure and other related policies. Considering between China's urbanization level of the city with the energy consumption of relatively large differences, in-depth perspective to research on specific areas of less, so, based on the status of Shandong province city level and energy consumption as the research object, to analyze the two coordination problems, so as to grasp the strategic direction of energy in Shandong Province, which puts forward reasonable suggestions of sustainable city in Shandong province development.
This paper is divided into six parts: the first part is the introduction, mainly on the research background, research purpose and significance, research status at home and abroad, research methods and thesis structure and the innovation and shortcoming ofthesis and so on. The second part is the city of energy consumption and the related theory. The third part of the 1978 2008 - for the investigation of the time, using the method of principal component analysis were carried out on the comprehensive evaluation of Shandong Province during the city level and energy consumption. The fourth part is the integrated use of the entropy change equation method, function method for the method of state coordination, coordination analysis between Shandong province and the city of energy consumption, the coordination of relations the city of Shandong province and the energy consumption between static and dynamic. The fifth part uses the time series regression and ordinary least squares method, the empirical method of cointegration, the city of Shandong Province The sixth part is the summary of the full text work, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the research results.
The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the city of Shandong province and the energy consumption of the comprehensive score of overall upward trend, but the city from the growth point of view, showing a certain stage, while energy consumption is fluctuant. (2) the results based on the entropy method, found in the inspection period the city and the energy consumption for 14 years in the state of coordinated development, 10 years is the basic coordination state, another 6 years is very inconsistent. (3) the state coordination degree function method, the relationship between the static coordination with a constant volatility, and dynamic coordination, in 1992 as a turning point, before in a highly coordinated state, then decreased. (4) city of Shandong province in 2015 will reach the level of 47.12%, the total energy consumption of 6.63 tons of standard coal, about 2.81 times the energy consumption of 2005; in 2020 the city of The level will be 54.04%, and the total energy consumption is 6.65 million tons of standard coal, about 2.82 times the energy consumption in 2005.
As policy suggestions, this paper points out that Shandong province must improve energy quality at the same time, proper control of city urbanization speed, maintain coordinated development between city and energy consumption. With the effect of city development for industrialization, actively adjust the industrial structure and product structure, make it towards a more conducive to energy conservation and environmental protection the direction of evolution, at the same time will help to establish a resource-saving city urbanization mode.

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.2;F426.2

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