海岛电力市场模式及其电源投资决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 18:45

本文关键词：海岛电力市场模式及其电源投资决策研究　出处：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：远离大陆的海岛供电问题一直以来未能得到很好的解决,海岛电源主要是由柴油机组成,不仅电能质量低,电力设施安全可靠性不高,电价也居高难下。由于难以有效解决海岛用电问题,海岛经济始终无法实现快速发展,而且极大地影响了岛上民生问题的改善。在当今电力市场化进程的大环境下,在海岛地区推行电力市场化改革已然成为一种趋势。本文对海岛地区的市场结构和模式进行了探讨,并研究了在市场模式下的海岛电源投资决策问题,主要研究内容可概述如下：首先,对国内外海岛地区的电力建设以及市场推进情况进行了全面调研及总结。对比总结了国内外海岛电力建设的不同思路,建议我国海岛市场的建立应该参照国外市场化改革的思路,并结合我国海岛情况进行市场化改革,促进海岛电力持续有力发展。其次,以商业模式为市场建立视角,应用e3-value方法对海岛的市场成员目标及其价值活动进行了深入分析,在此基础上应用该方法建立了三种类型海岛电力市场结构和模式,分别为：垂直一体化模式,引入部分竞争模式和寡头垄断模式。最后,研究了三种模式下海岛电源投资问题。分析了三种模式下电源投资决策的不同点,并分别建立了相应的电源投资模型,运用净现值法对垂直一体化垄断模式的海岛投资决策问题进行了分析计算,研究了政府电价补贴率以及燃料费对项目净现值的影响；应用实物期权理论建立了初级市场模式及寡头垄断模式的电源投资决策模型,前者深入研究了政府政策以及折旧率对独立发电商投资决策问题的影响,并进行了仿真分析。后者则主要研究了考虑其他发电商进入投资时,发电商的投资决策将会相应的变化,模型分析表明其会促进发电商提前进行投资。
[Abstract]:The island power supply problem far from the mainland has not been solved well. The island power supply is mainly composed of diesel engine, which is not only low power quality, but also low safety and reliability of power facilities. The electricity price is also very high. Because it is difficult to effectively solve the problem of island electricity consumption, the island economy has never been able to achieve rapid development. Moreover, it has greatly affected the improvement of the livelihood of the people on the island. Under the general environment of the current electricity marketization process, it has become a trend to carry out the market-oriented reform in the island area. This paper discusses the market structure and mode of the island area, and studies the investment decision of the island power supply under the market mode. The main research contents can be summarized as follows: Firstly, the paper makes a comprehensive investigation and summary of the electric power construction and market advancement in the island area at home and abroad, and compares and summarizes the different ideas of the electric power construction at home and abroad. It is suggested that the establishment of the island market in our country should be based on the ideas of foreign market-oriented reform and the marketization reform should be carried out in combination with the situation of the islands in China so as to promote the sustainable development of island electric power. Secondly, from the perspective of business model, the paper analyzes the target of market members and their value activities by using e3-value method. On the basis of this method, three types of island power market structure and model are established: vertical integration model, partial competition mode and oligopoly mode. Finally, the paper studies the island power investment problem under three modes, analyzes the difference of the power investment decision under the three modes, and establishes the corresponding power investment model respectively. The net present value (NPV) method is used to analyze and calculate the island investment decision in the vertical integrated monopoly mode, and the influence of government electricity price subsidy rate and fuel cost on the NPV of the project is studied. Based on the real option theory, the paper establishes the power investment decision model of primary market model and oligopoly mode. The former deeply studies the influence of government policy and depreciation rate on the investment decision of independent power generation company. The latter mainly studies how the decision will change when other generators enter the investment, and the model analysis shows that it will promote the generator to invest ahead of time.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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