湖南怀化地区电力需求预测及其实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 20:05

本文关键词：湖南怀化地区电力需求预测及其实证研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着电力体制改革的不断深入,电力系统逐渐形成了以发电侧、输配电侧和用户侧为三大主体的复杂系统,电力市场的初步建立,带给了发电侧、输配电侧和用户侧新的任务和挑战。因此,如何对电力需求进行准确预测,保证电能稳定充足供应,使电力系统与整个社会形成和谐的可持续发展,为社会带来巨大的经济效益和社会效益,成为电力行业首要解决的重大课题。在此大背景下,为满足湖南省怀化地区的经济快速稳定发展,保证电力的充足供应,电力需求的准确预测已经成为研究的重点。由于电力市场的快速发展,影响电力需求的因素不断变化,导致电力需求情况瞬息万变,因此,根据历史数据对电力需求进行预测会大大降低预测精度,预测出的电力需求数据对电力行业的决策没有特别大的实际意义。由于马尔可夫理论既适用于空间序列,又适用于时间序列,同时,马尔科夫链具有无后效性,这一点与现代电力需求的特点相适应,使得马尔可夫理论在现代电力需求预测中可以得到广泛的应用。本文首先分析了国内外现有的关于电力需求预测的方法；其次,在对涉及到的电力需求预测相关理论和方法进行了分析的基础上,对湖南省怀化地区经济发展状况、电力需求状况、电力供应能力和主要存在的问题以及影响电力供需的主要因素进行分析；然后分别采用灰色预测方法和加权马尔可夫残差修正预测方法对该地区的总社会电力需求量进行预测,并将其预测结果进行了对比,通过对比发现,加权马尔可夫残差修正预测具有更高的精确度,预测数据结果更具有可信度,克服了传统预测方式预测精度低,预测数据不具有普适性的问题。为怀化电力公司的电源规划、电网建设等决策提供一定的参考依据。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the power system, power system gradually formed in the generation side, the complex system of power transmission and distribution side and user side for the three main, preliminary establishment of power market, power transmission and distribution to the side, side and user tasks and challenges. Therefore, how to accurately forecast the power demand. To ensure the stable power supply, the power system and the formation of the whole society harmonious sustainable development, bring huge economic benefits and social benefits to the society, has become a major issue to solve the electric power industry. Under this background, in order to meet the Huaihua area of Hunan Province, the rapid and stable economic development, to ensure adequate power supply, accurate prediction the electric power demand has become the focus of the study.
Due to the rapid development of power market, power demand factors are constantly changing, resulting in changing power demand, therefore, according to the historical data of power demand forecasting will greatly reduce the prediction accuracy, the prediction of the decision-making power demand data of the power industry have no practical significance. Especially because of Markov's theory is not only applicable to space sequence it is suitable for time series, at the same time, Markov chain has no aftereffect, this with modern power demand characteristics to adapt, the Markov theory can be widely used in the modern electric power demand forecasting. This paper first analyzes the domestic power demand forecasting method; secondly, the demand for electricity related to the prediction theory and method are analyzed on the basis of the economic development in Huaihua area of Hunan Province, the electric power demand. Condition, main factors of power supply capacity and the main problems and the influence of power supply and demand analysis; then using the grey prediction method and weighted Markov prediction method of residual correction for the region's total social electricity demand forecasting, and the prediction results were compared, by comparison, the weighted Markov prediction residual error correction with higher accuracy, forecast result has more credibility, to overcome the traditional prediction methods of low prediction accuracy, the prediction data is not universal problem. As the power supply planning of Huaihua electric power company, provide a reference for power grid construction and decision-making.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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