基于趋势组合的我国煤炭需求预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 02:03

本文关键词：基于趋势组合的我国煤炭需求预测模型研究　出处：《商业研究》2014年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：煤炭资源是我国第一大能源资源,准确地预测煤炭需求动态趋势,对于保障能源供需平衡和规避能源供给风险,促进我国经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。由于煤炭消费具有非线性和不确定性特征,任何单项煤炭需求预测模型都不能较好地拟合煤炭需求的变动趋势,进而导致预测精度偏低。本文利用ARMA模型拟合其不确定性趋势,紧紧围绕我国煤炭实际消费的非平稳变动特征,通过趋势外推模型拟合煤炭需求的确定性趋势;建立了基于趋势组合的我国煤炭需求预测模型,该模型运用表明其实用性和精确度都好于已有的组合预测模型。
[Abstract]:Coal resource is the largest energy resource in China. Accurately predicting the dynamic trend of coal demand will ensure the balance of energy supply and demand and avoid the risk of energy supply. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of economy and society in China. Because of the nonlinear and uncertain characteristics of coal consumption, no single coal demand forecasting model can fit the changing trend of coal demand. This paper uses ARMA model to fit the uncertainty trend and closely revolves around the characteristics of non-stationary change of actual coal consumption in China. The deterministic trend of coal demand is fitted by trend extrapolation model. A coal demand forecasting model based on trend combination is established in this paper. The application of this model shows that its practicability and accuracy are better than that of the existing combination forecasting model.
【作者单位】：西安科技大学管理学院;
【分类号】：F224;F426.21
【正文快照】： 一、引言煤炭资源是我国第一大能源资源,在我国一次能源生产和消费构成中,煤炭占到七成以上,生产和消费量是世界的1/2左右。2012年,全国原煤产量36.5亿t,消费24.4亿t,生产和消费总量分别同比增加3.8%和2.5%。研究表明,尽管受气候变化、经济结构和能源结构调整的影响,在未来较

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