我国海外石油投资项目决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 01:04

本文关键词：我国海外石油投资项目决策研究　出处：《中国石油大学（华东）》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：石油安全问题已成为我国经济发展的瓶颈,而海外石油投资项目是缓解石油供应紧张的必要途径之一。随着石油企业“走出去”战略的实施和深入,海外投资项目逐渐增多在此过程中取得了不少成绩,但由于经验不足、决策失误等使得决策实施效果低于预期,投资回报率低下,给企业和国家造成了重大的经济损失,也严重阻碍了我国石油企业的国际化之路。因此,重视海外石油投资项目的决策研究,建立科学合理的决策指标体系和决策模型,提高海外石油投资项目的决策水平,是提高海外石油投资项目总效益的有效手段。基于此,论文以石油安全为出发点,在分析海外石油投资项目当前决策现状与存在问题的基础上,结合海外石油投资项目决策的特殊性和指标建立的各项原则,以石油供给、风险控制和经济效益三大决策目标为框架基础,对当前现有的决策指标体系进行补充和完善,建立了新的海外石油投资项目决策指标体系。其次,论文选用层次分析法确定各层次指标的权重,进而引入灰色系统理论和层次分析法结合的灰色多层次方法构建了海外石油投资项目决策模型。然后,为了验证决策模型的科学性和合理性,对A、B两个项目进行决策,并对结果进行分析。最后对本次研究做出总结和展望。
[Abstract]:The problem of petroleum security has become the bottleneck of our country's economic development, and the overseas petroleum investment project is one of the necessary ways to alleviate the shortage of oil supply. With the implementation and deepening of the "going out" strategy of petroleum enterprises. Overseas investment projects gradually increased in this process has made a lot of achievements, but due to lack of experience, decision-making errors and so on, the effect of decision-making implementation is lower than expected, and the rate of return on investment is low. It has caused great economic losses to enterprises and countries, and has also seriously hindered the internationalization of Chinese oil enterprises. Therefore, we should pay attention to the decision making of overseas oil investment projects. It is an effective means to improve the total benefit of overseas oil investment projects by establishing scientific and reasonable decision-making index system and decision model and improving the decision-making level of overseas oil investment projects. Based on this, the paper takes the petroleum security as the starting point, on the basis of analyzing the current decision-making status and existing problems of overseas oil investment projects. Combined with the particularity of overseas oil investment project decision-making and the establishment of the principles of indicators, based on the oil supply, risk control and economic benefits of the three decision-making objectives as the framework. The existing decision index system is supplemented and perfected, and a new decision index system for overseas oil investment projects is established. Secondly, the paper uses AHP to determine the weight of each hierarchy index, and then uses the grey system theory and AHP to construct the decision model of overseas petroleum investment project. In order to verify the scientificity and rationality of the decision-making model, this paper makes a decision on two items of AHB, and analyzes the results. Finally, the paper makes a summary and prospect of this study.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.22

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