中国—俄罗斯油气合作的政治风险研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 00:32

本文关键词： 中国俄罗斯油气合作政治风险分析　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源问题是当今世界普遍关注的重大问题。能源安全和一个国家的生存和发展紧密相关。随着经济的持续快速发展,中国能源需求越来越大,而国内能源生产又无法满足能源消费需求。由于中俄互为最大的邻国,与油气资源丰富的俄罗斯开展能源合作有助于中国摆脱对中东产油国的依赖性,并且能帮助中国实现油气来源多元化战略。从俄罗斯方面来看,中国快速发展的能源市场对俄罗斯油气产业也具有巨大的吸引力。表面看来,中俄油气合作对两国都具有重大的战略意义,并且符合双方的利益。但这仅仅是问题的一方面,当今油气作为不可再生的战略资源,日益成为国家间博弈的政治工具。其实,油气与政治是紧密联系的,不涉及政治的油气几乎不存在。21世纪以来,油气公司面临相当大的政治风险影响。目前油气产业在很大程度上依赖于国家政策。当今主要趋势是由国有企业进行的油气资产整合。因此,由于种种因素,为确保中国与俄罗斯的油气合作稳定和可持续发展,正确看待和评价中俄油气合作的政治风险具有重大的意义。本文主要目标是通过分析中俄油气合作的政治风险不同层次,对中俄油气合作的政治风险进行定性分析。本论文的绪论给出了本研究的基础信息,之后是简短的文献综述。研究的问题中,讨论了学科的起源、阐释,而研究目的是认清中俄石油天然气领域合作中的政治风险因素。这样界定了主要研究的问题,并列出研究设计与数据收集模式。第一章的焦点是：形成本研究中与政治风险有关的核心术语的概念。这一章的目的是检验理论观点与背景环境,建立基础框架,在这一框架内界定特定行业政治风险因素,并把它运用到中俄石油天然气行业合作中。第二章主要关注特定行业政治风险分析及其实际运用。目的是根据第一章中的基本政治风险理论,加上与政治风险及其分析在实践方面有关的补充文献,建立一个框架。之后,进一步发展这个框架,先分析政治风险以及它与全球环境、石油天然气行业的关系,再与特定行业政治风险分析相关联。讨论与石油天然气行业有关的变量,以及建立政治风险模型的方法论。这一章的结论中,把政治风险分析作为一种决策与管理工具对其进行考察。第三章在不同层次对中俄石油天然气合作进行分析,主要重点在于中俄双边关系上,同时也关注了俄国的投资环境、与俄国相关的政治风险、以及石油天然气特定行业。俄国的投资环境是矛盾的——需要外国投资者的资本与技术,但国家又想夺回对投资项目的控制权,尤其是在战略领域。在俄国石油天然气行业中,主要行为者是总统、总理、以及国有公司如俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司和俄罗斯国家石油公司。因此,这一部门的政治风险来源于政府顶层,而非地区层。投资者本国与东道国的关系将严重影响投资者所面临的政治风险,尤其是在石油天然气行业中,因为交易是在政府顶层进行的。传统上,外国投资者在俄国石油天然气领域中最大的风险便是国有化以及股份的强制出售。但是,这一风险几乎是不可能的,因为所有的磋商都是在两个政府的顶层间进行,俄国权力机构若如此做,这就意味着公开反对中国,将会严重影响到双边关系。政治风险可能更多地出现在一些运营问题上,如税收、进出口许可、立法改变及价格控制上。但是,如果投资项目对俄罗斯政府有利,那么,即使是最困难的实际问题也可在政府权力机构的协助下被轻松解决。中俄油气合作充满不确定因素：中国在油气合作方面极有可能多元化自己的对外联系,因此无法保证中国对俄国石油天然气的长期需求,而且无法确定俄国能保障在未来长期向中国供应烃类产品。考虑到俄国经济极度依赖石油天然气行业,而自然资源又是有限的,所以任何战略投资,以及相应的国外公司对该部门自然资源的控制,都被俄国当权视为威胁。中国公司在尝试投资于俄国油气工业时,不止一次碰到了严重阻碍。在已经形成的模式下,中国更喜欢“以贷款换原料”的方式,因为这样,类似合作的风险可被降为最低。尽管自身开发新矿床、建造管道以及基础设施的资金不足,俄国尚不准备邀请中国共同开发战略矿产地,当前政府的资源民族主义态度极为强烈,而这种态度在可预见的将来,未必会有改变。尽管中俄间宣传着“战略伙伴关系”,但双边关系中的互不信任问题极为尖锐,这阻碍了石油天然气的合作发展。双边关系中可能的改变,将直接影响到未来石油天然气领域共同项目的政治风险程度。
[Abstract]:The energy problem is a major issue of common concern in the world today. The survival and development of energy security and a country closely related. With the sustained and rapid economic development, China energy demand increasing, while domestic energy production can not meet consumer demand. Because of energy between China and Russia, and Russia's rich oil and gas resources to carry out energy cooperation to help get rid of Chinese on Middle Eastern oil dependence, and can help to realize the strategy of diversifying the sources of oil and gas Chinese. From the Russian point of view, the rapid development of the Chinese energy market also has great appeal to the Russian oil and gas industry.
Apparently, the Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation is of great strategic significance for the two countries, and in the interests of both sides. But this is only one aspect of the problem, as a strategy of non renewable resources in oil and gas, has become a political tool of the game between countries. In fact, oil and gas and politics are closely linked, since not involved the politics of oil and gas is almost non-existent in.21 century, oil and gas companies face political risk considerable influence. At present, the oil and gas industry depends heavily on national policy. The main trend is the integration of oil and gas assets by state-owned enterprises. Therefore, due to various factors, in order to ensure the China with Russian oil and gas cooperation and stability and sustainable development is of great significance to correctly view and evaluate the political risks of Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation. The main goal of this paper is through the analysis of the political risks of different levels of the Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation, Sino Russian oil The political risk of gas cooperation is qualitatively analyzed.
The introduction of this paper gives the basic information of the study, after a brief literature review. Research questions, discuss the subject origin, interpretation, and purpose of the study is to understand the political risks of Sino Russian cooperation in the field of petroleum and natural gas. It defines the main research issues, and lists the research design and data collection model.
The first chapter is the focus of the formation of concepts related to the political risks of core terms in this study. The purpose of this chapter is to examine theories and context based framework, the definition of political risk factors in specific industries within this framework, and apply it to the Sino Russian cooperation in the oil and gas industry.
The second chapter focuses on the analysis of political risks in specific industries and its practical application. According to the basic theory of political risk in the first chapter, coupled with the political risk and risk analysis in practice the relevant supplementary documents, the establishment of a framework. After the further development of the framework, the first analysis of political risk and its relationship with the global environment, oil the natural gas industry, and analysis of the political risk associated to specific industries. Talk about the oil and gas industry variables, and the method of establishing the model of political risk in theory. The conclusion of this chapter, the political risk analysis as a decision-making and management tools for their study.
The third chapter analyzes the Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation at different levels. The main focus is on Sino Russian bilateral relations. At the same time, it also focuses on Russia's investment environment, the political risks related to Russia, and the specific industries of oil and gas.
Russia's investment environment is contradictory, needs capital and technology to foreign investors, but the country wants to take control of the investment projects, especially in the field of strategy. In the Russian oil and gas industry, the main actors are the president, prime minister, and state-owned companies such as Ross, Russia's Gazprom and Rosneft the company. Therefore, the Department of political risk from the top of the government, rather than the area. Relationship between country of investors and the host country will seriously affect the political risk faced by investors, especially in the oil and gas industry, because the transaction is in the top of the government.
Traditionally, the risk of foreign investors in the Russian oil and gas field is the largest state-owned and forced the sale of shares. However, this risk is almost impossible, because all consultations are in the top two of the Russian government, if the authority to do so, this means that public opposition China, it will seriously affect bilateral relations. The political risk is more likely to appear in some operation problems, such as tax, import and export license, legislative changes and price control. However, if the investment project, the Russian government that, even the most difficult problems in the government authority can also help is easy to solve.
The Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation is full of uncertain factors: China cooperation in oil and gas is likely to own diversification of external relations, therefore cannot guarantee China long-term demand for Russian oil and natural gas, and cannot be determined in the future to Russia to guarantee long-term supply of Chinese hydrocarbon products. Considering the Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas industry, and the natural resource is limited, so any strategic investment, in the Department of natural resources and the corresponding control of foreign companies, is Russia's power as a threat. Chinese companies trying to invest in the Russian oil and gas industry, more than once encountered a serious impediment. In the formation of mode, Chinese more love "the loan for raw material", because of this, the risk of a similar cooperation can be reduced to a minimum. In spite of its own development of new deposits, pipeline construction and infrastructure funds are not sufficient, Russia China is not ready to invite Chinese joint development strategy of mineral resource nationalism, the current government's attitude is very strong, and this attitude in the foreseeable future, may not have changed. Although the propaganda of the Sino Russian strategic partnership, but mistrust in bilateral relations is extremely sharp, which hindered the oil and gas development cooperation. Change possible in the bilateral relations, will directly affect the future political risk degree of petroleum and natural gas field project.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.22;F451.2;D822.351.2

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