长三角能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 12:51

本文关键词： 长三角能源消费碳排放经济增长　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球环境问题尤其是气候问题的日益凸显，各国学者逐渐认识到研究能源消费、碳排放和经济增长之间关系的重要性。经济增长不能缺少能源要素的投入，而大量的能源消费直接导致了全球碳排放过量，三者的变化和发展是相互影响、相互关联的。如何维持三者综合平稳的可持续发展，在保持经济发展的同时，合理使用能源，减少碳排放量，是迫在眉睫的问题。长三角地区主要包括上海、江苏和浙江三个省份，是我国经济发展最具代表性的地区之一，在社会经济发展水平、国内外投资环境、科技创新能力等方面在都处于全国领先位置。同时该地区近二十年的能源消费和二氧化碳排放量也占据了全国很大的比重，经济快速发展导致环境问题日益加重，而生态环境的破坏又会影响到地区经济进一步的发展。面对社会经济可持续发展这一重大课题，深入了解三者之间的内在联系，对长三角地区合理规划未来的可持续发展战略和制定切实有效的政策措施有重要的指导意义。基于这方面的考虑，本文在理论研究的基础上，重点从实证的角度分析研究了长三角地区能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系。第一章为本文的绪论部分，阐明了本文的选题目的和意义，介绍了国内外学者在相关领域的研究成果，提出了本文的研究思路与方法以及创新与不足之处。第二章首先介绍了能源消费、碳排放和经济增长之间存在的内在关系，其次从三者关系的阶段性特征方面说明了相应研究的主要内容。第三章为统计分析部分，运用对比分析的方法，将长三角地区的能源消费、碳排放和经济增长的数据进行对比研究。结果说明，三者具有大致相同的变化趋势，即三者之间存在互相影响的关系。第四章为计量分析部分，利用面板数据和向量自回归的研究方法分析了三者之间的动态关系。结果表明：在长期内，长三角地区的能源消费与经济增长、碳排放与经济增长存在协整关系，且三者之间也存在协整关系；在短期内，长三角地区的能源消费与经济增长、碳排放与经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系。第五章为库兹涅兹曲线存在性研究，基于库兹涅兹曲线的理论，实证检验了长三角地区存在环境库兹涅兹曲线和碳排放库兹涅兹曲线，并预测出曲线拐点分别将在2022和2025年左右出现。第六章为文章总结部分，，并提出一些有利于长三角地区实现可持续发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly prominent global environmental problems, especially climate issues, scholars from all over the world have come to realize the importance of studying the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. Economic growth can not lack the input of energy elements. And a large amount of energy consumption directly leads to the global carbon emissions excess, the changes and development of the three are mutually affected and interrelated. How to maintain the three integrated and stable sustainable development, while maintaining economic development. Rational use of energy, reducing carbon emissions, is an urgent problem. Yangtze River Delta region mainly includes Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, is one of the most representative areas of economic development in China, in the level of social and economic development, investment environment at home and abroad. The ability of science and technology innovation is in the leading position in the country. Meanwhile, the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of the region have accounted for a large proportion of the country in the past two decades. The rapid development of economy leads to increasingly serious environmental problems, and the destruction of ecological environment will affect the further development of regional economy. Deeply understanding the internal relationship between the three has important guiding significance for rational planning of the future sustainable development strategy and formulation of effective policy measures in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on this consideration. On the basis of theoretical research, this paper analyzes the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region from an empirical point of view. The first chapter is the introduction of this paper, the purpose and significance of this paper, the introduction of domestic and foreign scholars in the relevant fields of research results, the research ideas and methods of this paper as well as innovation and deficiencies. The second chapter first introduces the internal relations among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, and then explains the main contents of the corresponding research from the phase characteristics of the three relations. The third chapter is the statistical analysis, using the method of comparative analysis, the Yangtze River Delta energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth data are compared. The three have roughly the same trend of change, that is, there is a relationship between the three. Chapter 4th is the econometric analysis part. The dynamic relationship between them is analyzed by panel data and vector autoregressive method. The results show that the energy consumption and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region in the long run. There is a cointegration relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, and there is also a cointegration relationship among the three. In the short term, there is a two-way causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta. Chapter 5th is a study on the existence of Kuznets curve. Based on the theory of Kuznets curve, the paper empirically tests the existence of environmental Kuznets curve and carbon emission Kuznets curve in Yangtze River Delta. It is predicted that the inflection point of the curve will appear around 2022 and 2025, respectively. Chapter 6th is the summary of the article, and puts forward some policy suggestions for realizing sustainable development in the Yangtze River Delta region.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205;F426.2;F224

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