可再生能源配额交易制对我国电源结构的影响机理研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 15:48

本文关键词： 可再生能源配额制绿色证书系统动力学电源结构　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为消除可再生能源发电、上网和市场消纳三大主要障碍、鼓励成本竞争和推动技术进步、有效调整电源结构并实现政府政策目标,“十二五”期间,中国将推出可再生能源配额制(RPS),并推进可再生能源配额交易制度的建设。可再生能源配额交易制度,不仅有利于消除可再生能源发电产业发展面临的三大主要障碍,而且有利于可再生能源产业的规模化发展和竞争性市场的形成。基于上述背景,在分析国内外研究现状及成果的基础上,本文研究了可再生能源配额交易制对我国电源结构的影响机理及效果。首先,从制度变迁的角度分析了实施可再生能源配额制的制度环境和相关机制设计；然后,建立了可交易的绿色证书(TGC)市场和电力市场的局部均衡模型,分析了TGC市场与电力市场的相互作用以及R.PS对电源结构的作用机理；以此为基础,构建了TGC市场和电力市场交互作用的系统动力学模型,运用vensim软件对RPS制度在2012-2020年的实施情况进行模拟仿真和情景分析,以得到RPS实施后对TGC市场的影响(包括TGC价格、可再生能源装机和可再生能源发电量)、对电力市场的影响(包括电力价格、传统能源装机和传统能源发电量)以及最终对我国电源机构的影响效果。研究结果表明：①在TGC市场中,受市场供求规律及价格管制政策的影响,TGC价格从基准价格上升到价格上限,维持一段时间后快速下降至极小值并发生小幅度震荡；可再生能源在建装机随着TGC价格的波动曲线而变化,因此,可再生能源发电量经历了加速增长、匀速增长和减速增长的过程。②在电力市场中,电力价格从初始价格平稳下降到价格下限,维持低位一段时间后快速上升至极大值并发生小幅度震荡；传统能源在建装机随着电力价格的波动曲线而变化,因此传统能源发电量经历加速增长、减速增长、低速匀速增长和加速增长的过程。③在调整电源结构方面,传统能源发电量增速小于可再生能源发电量增速,因此煤电占比逐年下降且绿电占比逐年上升。RPS的实施通过推动绿电需求,促进了TGC市场的发展,再通过市场机制作用以及与电力市场的交互影响,激励了可再生能源装机的投资,并在一定程度上抑制了传统能源装机的投资,从而促进了我国电源结构的调整。④情景分析表明,国家规定的配额比例越高,交互作用的TGC市场与电力市场越不易实现均衡,但其最终对优化我国电源结构的作用效果越明显。
[Abstract]:In order to eliminate the three major obstacles of renewable energy generation, access to the Internet and market acceptance, encourage cost competition and promote technological progress, effectively adjust the power supply structure and achieve government policy objectives, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. China will introduce a renewable energy quota system and promote the establishment of a renewable energy quota trading system. It is not only helpful to eliminate the three major obstacles to the development of renewable energy power generation industry, but also conducive to the large-scale development of renewable energy industry and the formation of competitive market. Based on the above background, based on the analysis of domestic and foreign research status and results, this paper studies the mechanism and effect of the renewable energy quota trading system on the power supply structure in China. From the perspective of institutional changes, this paper analyzes the institutional environment and related mechanism design of implementing the renewable energy quota system. Then, the local equilibrium model of tradable green certificate market and electricity market is established, and the interaction between TGC market and electricity market and the mechanism of R.PS on power supply structure are analyzed. Based on this, the system dynamics model of the interaction between TGC market and electricity market is constructed. Vensim software is used to simulate and analyze the implementation of RPS in 2012-2020. In order to obtain the impact on the TGC market after the implementation of RPS (including the price of TGC, renewable energy installed and renewable energy generation), the impact on the electricity market (including electricity price). Traditional energy installation and traditional energy generation) and the final impact on the power supply mechanism in China. The results show that in the TGC market, the price of TGC rises from the base price to the upper limit due to the influence of market supply and demand law and price control policy. Maintain a period of time after a rapid decline to the minimum value and small shocks; With the fluctuation curve of TGC price, renewable energy generation has experienced accelerated growth, uniform growth and deceleration growth process. 2. 2 in the electricity market. The price of electric power drops steadily from the initial price to the lower limit of the price, after maintaining low level for a period of time, it rises rapidly to the maximum value and has a small oscillation. The traditional energy generation is changing with the fluctuation curve of electricity price, so the traditional energy generation goes through the process of accelerating growth, decelerating growth, increasing at low speed and accelerating growth. 3. 3 in the adjustment of power supply structure. The traditional energy generation rate is smaller than the renewable energy generation rate, so the coal power share and the green power share increase year by year. The implementation of RPS promotes the development of the TGC market by promoting the green electricity demand. Through the effect of market mechanism and interaction with electricity market, the investment of renewable energy installation is encouraged, and the investment of traditional energy installation is restrained to a certain extent. Therefore, the adjustment of power supply structure in China shows that the higher the quota ratio, the more difficult it is for the interactive TGC market and electricity market to achieve equilibrium. But its function effect to optimize the power supply structure of our country finally is more obvious.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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