我国区域能源效率演变规律分析

发布时间：2018-01-31 05:32

本文关键词： 全要素电力效率全要素能源效率数据包络分析全要素能源效率指数　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源是经济发展的原动力,是现代文明的物质基础。安全、可靠的能源供应和高效、清洁的能源利用是实现社会经济持续发展的基本保证。如何保持能源、经济和环境的可持续发展是我们面临的一个重大战略问题。虽然我国能源总量丰富,但人均能源资源贫乏,能源利用技术相对落后,同时随着经济的增长我国能源需求持续增加,能源消费量已超越美国,成为世界第一大能源消费国。这些问题将使我国能源问题面临长期的挑战。因此提高能源效率成为解决我国能源问题的有效途径。电力作为一种优质、高效、清洁能源,在国民经济发展中发挥着重要作用。我国电力消费以火电为主,尽管风电、水电等清洁能源发电比例持续提高,但火力发电依然在电力消费能源结构中占有绝对的地位。因此火力发电不仅是我国煤炭消费的主体,同时也是二氧化碳等污染物产生的主要来源。电力行业在节能减排中责任重大,电力效率的提高是节能减排的重要途径。本文主要研究我国区域全要素能源效率、电力效率及其驱动因素,探讨全要素能源效率、电力效率与区域经济增长之间的相关关系,从而为节能减排政策的制定提供参考。应用数据包络分析理论建立了区域全要素能源效率评价模型；基于Malmquist生产率指数建立了全要素能源效率分解模型,以探讨全要素能源效率变化的驱动因素；建立动态面板数据模型,探讨全要素能源效率与经济增长之间的相关关系。以1995—2008年中国30个省、市、自治区的数据为样本,测算了区域全要素能源效率和全要素电力效率,结果表明经济发展快的区域全要素电力效率比较高,基于一般矩估计的动态面板数据模型的估计结果进一步证实了中国区域全要素电力效率与人均国内生产总值呈正相关关系,但与产业结构呈负相关关系；区域全要素能源效率与经济发展水平成正相关关系,而产业结构对不同区域全要素能源效率有不同的影响。全要素能源效率和全要素能源和电力效率分解模型的结果表明,除湖南外,其他区域的技术水平在提高。研究结果具有较高的政策建议价值,即技术进步和产业结构调整是提高中国区域全要素能源效率的重要措施。
[Abstract]:Energy is the driving force of economic development and the material foundation of modern civilization. Safe and reliable energy supply and efficient and clean energy utilization are the basic guarantee to realize the sustainable development of social economy. The sustainable development of economy and environment is an important strategic problem we face. Although China is rich in energy resources per capita energy resources are poor and energy utilization technology is relatively backward. At the same time, with the economic growth, China's energy demand continues to increase, energy consumption has surpassed the United States. As the world's largest energy consumer, these problems will make our energy problems face long-term challenges. Therefore, improving energy efficiency is an effective way to solve China's energy problems. As a kind of high quality, high efficiency and clean energy, electric power plays an important role in the development of national economy. Thermal power is the main power consumption in China, although the proportion of clean energy such as wind power, hydropower and other clean energy power generation continues to increase. But thermal power still occupies an absolute position in the structure of power consumption energy, so thermal power generation is not only the main body of coal consumption in China. At the same time, it is also the main source of carbon dioxide and other pollutants. The power industry is responsible for energy saving and emission reduction, and the improvement of power efficiency is an important way to save energy and reduce emissions. This paper mainly studies the regional total factor energy efficiency, power efficiency and its driving factors, and discusses the correlation between total factor energy efficiency, power efficiency and regional economic growth. Therefore, it provides a reference for the formulation of energy saving and emission reduction policies. The evaluation model of regional all-factor energy efficiency is established by using the theory of data envelope analysis. Based on Malmquist productivity index, a decomposition model of total factor energy efficiency is established to explore the driving factors of total factor energy efficiency change. A dynamic panel data model was established to explore the correlation between total factor energy efficiency and economic growth. Data from 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 1995 to 2008 were taken as samples. The regional total factor energy efficiency and the total factor power efficiency are calculated. The results show that the regional total factor power efficiency with rapid economic development is relatively high. The estimation results of the dynamic panel data model based on the general moment estimation further confirm the positive correlation between the total factor power efficiency and the GDP per capita, but the negative correlation with the industrial structure. Regional all-factor energy efficiency has a positive correlation with the level of economic development. The industrial structure has different effects on the total factor energy efficiency in different regions. The results of the total factor energy efficiency and the total factor energy and power efficiency decomposition model show that, except Hunan. The technical level of other regions is improving. The research results have high policy value, that is, technological progress and industrial structure adjustment are important measures to improve the energy efficiency of all elements in China.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F206;F426.2

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