智能电网背景下的电力供需分析与电价研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 05:37

本文关键词： 智能电网定价博弈论可再生能源　出处：《电子科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：温室效应气体排放导致了气候问题，严峻的气候形势使得重度污染空气的电能来源必须向清洁环保的方向发展；电力设备的老化问题和电力系统结构的高度互联使得电力系统在安全性和可靠性方面的问题变得尤为突出；同时用户对电能的质量也有较高的要求，这些因素使得传统的电力系统遇到前所未有的挑战。在严峻的形势下，，开发安全、可靠、经济、高效、环境友好和使用灵活的智能电网成为未来电力系统发展的目标。因此，在新的环境下，从学术的角度对智能电网进行研究意义重大。智能电网是一个新的课题，本文从经济学的角度分析智能电网时代供需双方的特点，以及供电公司针对供需双方的特点应该制定的定价策略。首先，文章对智能电网时代发电侧的特点进行了研究。在智能电网时代，发电侧的电源主要有像火电、水电、核电这样的常规电能和以风电为代表的可再生能源的电能。笔者通过对风电负荷进行数据统计分析，得出风电出力具有波动性大，随机性明显，间歇发电的特点，引出了可再生能源接入电网存在的问题并给出了未来智能电网解决上述问题的途径与方法。然后，本文对智能电网时代需求侧的特点进行了分析。笔者通过对用户各个时段内的用电负荷进行统计分析，分析结果表明用户用电负荷具有季节性和日周期性，用电高峰和低谷时期明显，峰谷差比较大。同时本文通过对传统电网和智能电网的需求侧管理特点进行对比分析得出智能电网具备有力引导用户调整用电时间的条件，指出智能电网需要制定合理的定价策略来引导用户用电，这样才能平缓用户的峰谷差。最后，本文对智能电网下供电公司的定价策略做了研究。笔者首先用动态博弈的思想分析了智能电网供电公司售电决策过程，得出供电公司的售电决策是一个四步的动态博弈过程。接着笔者用数据分析了风电发电时间和用户用电时间具有反周期的特点，并提出一个定价模型。笔者给出了这个模型的数学表达式，用算例验证了这种定价模型的可行性。通过该定价模型，供电公司可以在可再生能源发电充足的时期，随着用户用电越多，制定越高电价，在可再生能源发电不足时候，随着用户用电越多，制定越低电价，从而可以更有利的引导用户改变用电时间，从而提高用电侧可再生能源的使用效率。
[Abstract]:The greenhouse effect gas emission causes the climate problem , the severe weather situation makes the electric power source of the severe polluted air must be developed in the direction of clean and environmental protection ; the aging problem of the power equipment and the high interconnection of the system structure make the power system meet the unprecedented challenges . In the new environment , the intelligent power grid is developed safely , reliably , economically , efficiently , environment - friendly and flexible . Therefore , in the new environment , the characteristics of the supply and demand side in the intelligent power grid era are analyzed from the angle of economics , and the pricing strategy that the power supply company should formulate for the characteristics of the supply and demand side should be developed . First , the paper studies the characteristics of the power generation side in the smart grid era . In the smart grid era , the power supply on the power generation side mainly includes the conventional electric energy such as power , electricity , nuclear power and the electric energy of the renewable energy which is represented by wind power . Then , this paper analyzes the characteristics of the demand side of the intelligent power grid era . By the statistical analysis of the electric load in each period of the users , the author compares the demand side management characteristics of the traditional power grid and the intelligent power grid , and concludes that the intelligent power grid has the condition of guiding the user to adjust the electricity consumption time , and points out that the intelligent power grid needs to formulate a reasonable pricing strategy to guide the user electricity , so that the peak - valley difference of the user can be gently . In the end , the paper studies the pricing strategy of the power supply company under the intelligent power grid . First , the author analyzes the power supply decision process of the intelligent power grid by using the idea of dynamic game , and concludes that the electricity sale decision of the power supply company is a four - step dynamic game process . Then , the author presents a pricing model . By using the pricing model , the higher the electricity price can be established as the power consumption of the user is enough , and the lower the electricity price can be established as the power consumption of the user is insufficient , so that the user can be guided to change the electricity consumption time , so that the use efficiency of the power utilization side renewable energy can be improved .

【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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