城市电网规划风险预警系统研究

发布时间：2018-02-16 13:46

本文关键词： 电网规划风险评价物元可拓模型风险预警　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来城市经济快速增长，电网投资建设加速，致使电网规划的风险规避成为电网企业自身发展与保障城市经济发展的重要研究课题，建立风险预警系统迫在眉睫。当前关于电网规划风险的研究多集中在风险要素处理方法和风险评价方面，对于城市快速发展对电网规划带来的风险考虑不足，电网规划风险预警也缺少有效工具。因此，科学合理地构建城市电网规划风险预警系统具有重大的理论和现实意义。论文在查阅大量文献资料及实地调研基础上，着重研究了城市发展与电网规划间的关系，对投融资、信贷、担保等金融政策不健全对电网规划的风险进行了重点分析，，构建了电网规划风险预警指标体系；针对不同风险要素特点，用不同分布函数对风险要素发生概率进行了计量，在此基础上建立了基于物元可拓理论的城市电网规划风险综合评价模型和基于全寿命周期风险利润的评价方法，将这几种方法结合起来作为电网规划风险评价方法；基于构建的预警系统框架、风险预警识别和风险预警评价系统，设计了电网规划风险预警系统；利用开发的电网规划风险预警系统软件，以康巴什新区电网规划10kV中压配电方案为例运行，参照预警得到的综合评价风险等级和财务风险水平，结合康巴什新区发展的特殊性，从电网公司和政府部门两个角度提出相应的风险防范策略。实证说明论文所建立的指标、模型与预警系统具有可行性，在后续研究中会对该系统不断完善，以期对电网企业提供更好的参考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid growth of urban economy and the acceleration of power grid investment and construction, the risk avoidance of power network planning has become an important research topic for the development of power grid enterprises and the protection of urban economic development. It is urgent to establish a risk early warning system. The current research on the risk of power network planning is mostly focused on the risk factor treatment and risk evaluation, and the risk caused by the rapid development of the city to the power network planning is not considered enough. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to construct the urban power network planning risk early warning system scientifically and reasonably. On the basis of consulting a lot of literature and field investigation, this paper focuses on the relationship between urban development and power network planning, and focuses on the risk of imperfect financial policies, such as investment and financing, credit and guarantee, to power network planning. According to the characteristics of different risk factors, the probability of occurrence of risk elements is measured with different distribution functions. On this basis, the comprehensive evaluation model of urban power network planning risk based on matter-element extension theory and the evaluation method of risk profit based on the whole life cycle are established, and these methods are combined as the power network planning risk evaluation method. Based on the framework of early warning system, risk early warning identification and risk early warning evaluation system, a power network planning risk early warning system is designed, and the software of power network planning risk early warning system is developed. Taking the power network planning of Kangbashi New area as an example, the 10kV medium voltage distribution scheme is operated, and the comprehensive evaluation risk grade and financial risk level obtained by early warning are referred to, combined with the particularity of the development of Kangbashi New area. Put forward the corresponding risk prevention strategy from two angles of grid company and government department. The empirical results show that the index, model and early warning system established in this paper are feasible, and will be improved continuously in the follow-up study, in order to provide a better reference for power grid enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.24;F426.61

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