北京市碳排放、能源消费与经济增长关系的研究

发布时间：2018-02-20 16:54

本文关键词： 碳排放能源消费经济增长能源结构　出处：《河北大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前，全球正面临着经济危机和气候危机的考验，各国政府正努力转变现有的高能耗、高污染以及高排放的经济增长模式。我国作为最大的发展中国家，能源消费与碳排放量已达到世界第二的水平，面对全球共同的责任，中国政府决定从2005年到2020年单位国内生产总值碳排放量下降40%-45%。在这样的背景下，如何在不影响经济增长的条件下协调碳排放和能源消费成为关键问题。碳排放、能源消费和经济增长三者之间有着复杂的关系，经济的增长需要大量的能源消耗，同时也导致了二氧化碳的排放。因此，降低能源排放强度是中国节能减排政策的重点，这不仅要提高能源的利用效率，更为重要的是要改变以煤炭消费为主的能源结构，大力发展清洁技术。基于此，本文在理论和实证上系统分析北京市碳排放量、能源消费和经济增长的关系。本文在运用可持续发展、能源·经济·环境以及库兹涅茨倒“U”型假说等理论基础之上，对北京市碳排放量、能源消费和经济增长三者之间关系进行系统的研究。首先根据《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》所提供方法，采用北京统计年鉴数据，计算出北京市近30年的碳排放量；接着，运用协整模型和误差修正模型实证检验了北京市碳排放量、能源消费与经济增长之间的长期及短期关系；再者，利用库兹涅茨假说理论，进一步研究能源消费与经济增长、碳排放量与经济增长之间的关系；最后，运用LMDI分解方法，对北京市碳排放增量进行分解研究。通过以上的分析，本文得到如下的结论：（1）北京市经济增长是碳排放与能源消费增长的原因，为了寻求碳减排的措施，，应该从产业结构、产业规模、能源消费结构及清洁技术水平入手，努力实现在经济增长的条件下实现碳减排的目标；（2）北京市碳排放和能源消费的库兹涅茨曲线拐点在2013年到来，尽管时间提前于全国大部分地区，但碳减排的任务仍然很重；（3）北京市产业结构和能源强度对于碳减排的作用空间已然不大，为了继续提高碳减排的力度，调整能源结构是北京市政府目前的当务之急。
[Abstract]:At present, the world is facing the test of economic crisis and climate crisis, and governments are trying to change the existing economic growth model of high energy consumption, high pollution and high emission. Energy consumption and carbon emissions have reached the second highest in the world. In the face of shared global responsibility, the Chinese government decided to reduce carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product from 2005 to 2020. Against this background, How to coordinate carbon emissions and energy consumption without affecting economic growth has become a key issue. There is a complex relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth, and economic growth requires a large amount of energy consumption. It also leads to carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, reducing energy emission intensity is the focus of China's energy conservation and emission reduction policy, which not only improves the efficiency of energy use, but also changes the energy structure dominated by coal consumption. Based on this, the relationship among carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing is systematically analyzed theoretically and empirically. Based on the theories of sustainable development, energy, economy and environment, and Kuznets' inverted "U" hypothesis, this paper studies the carbon emissions from Beijing. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is systematically studied. Firstly, based on the method provided by the IPCC guidelines for National greenhouse Gas inventories of 2006, the Beijing Statistical Yearbook is used to calculate the carbon emissions of Beijing for nearly 30 years. Cointegration model and error correction model are used to test the long-term and short-term relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing. Furthermore, the Kuznets hypothesis is used to further study energy consumption and economic growth. The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth. Finally, the LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the carbon emissions increment in Beijing. Through the above analysis, this paper draws the following conclusion: (1) the economic growth in Beijing is the reason for the increase in carbon emissions and energy consumption. In order to seek measures for reducing carbon emissions, we should look for measures to reduce carbon emissions from the industrial structure, industrial scale, Starting with the energy consumption structure and the level of clean technology, we will strive to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions under the conditions of economic growth) the turning point of the Kuznets curve of carbon emissions and energy consumption in Beijing will arrive on 2013. Although the time is ahead of that in most parts of the country, the task of reducing carbon emissions is still very heavy.) the industrial structure and energy intensity of Beijing have not much room for carbon abatement. In order to continue to increase the intensity of carbon abatement, Adjusting the energy structure is the urgent task of the Beijing Municipal Government at present.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F127;F426.2

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