能源消费总量控制下的电力消费量区域分解方法研究

发布时间：2018-02-22 09:22

本文关键词： 能源消费总量电力消费量控制目标区域分解信息熵基尼系数　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源是经济社会发展的重要物质基础。改革开放以来,我国能源工业飞速发展,而能源发展和资源、环境之间的矛盾也日益显现。在能源供给日趋紧张、资源环境约束加剧的背景下,节能降耗、控制能源消费总量是经济社会可持续发展的重要保障。能源消费总量控制的手段主要包括市场手段和行政手段,将全国目标分解到各省区是现阶段我国实施能源消费总量控制行之有效的行政手段,也是我国“十二五”规划纲要确定的能源发展和改革任务之一。电力消费是终端能源消费的重要组成部分,控制电力消费量可以间接实现控制能源消费总量,科学合理的进行电力消费量控制目标区域分解是实施电力消费量控制的重要前提。本文综合考虑我国各地区的经济社会发展的差异,建立了体现公平性并具有可操作性的电力消费量区域分解方案。首先,本文介绍了电力消费量区域分解的原则,分析了电力消费量影响因素,并根据影响因素选择表征指标,确立了电力消费量区域分解的指标体系；其次,本文将熵值法和基于时间维度的动态分析方法引入模型,构建了基于信息熵的电力消费量区域分解模型,同时以当前电力消费量为初始分配,应用基尼系数优化调整等方法建立了基于基尼系数法的电力消费量区域分解模型；最后,本文对两种电力消费量区域分解模型进行了算例分析,将“十二五”末全国电力消费量控制目标分解至各地区,并比较分析两种方法的差异性和适用性,结果表明基于信息熵的分解法在反映不同地区差异性方面更具优势,更适合在现阶段我国各地区经济社会发展差异较大的情况下应用。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material foundation for economic and social development. Since the reform and opening up, the energy industry in China has developed rapidly, and the contradiction between energy development, resources and environment has become increasingly apparent. Under the background of intensified resource and environmental constraints, energy conservation and consumption reduction, energy consumption control is an important guarantee for sustainable economic and social development. The means of total energy consumption control mainly include market means and administrative means. It is an effective administrative means for our country to implement the total energy consumption control at the present stage by breaking down the national goals to the provinces and regions. It is also the energy development and reform Ren Wuzhi defined in the outline of China's 12th Five-Year Plan. Electricity consumption is an important part of the end energy consumption, and the control of electricity consumption can indirectly control the total energy consumption. Scientific and reasonable decomposition of power consumption control target area is an important prerequisite for the implementation of power consumption control. Considering the differences of economic and social development in various regions of China, this paper establishes a scheme of regional decomposition of electricity consumption which embodies fairness and is operable. Firstly, this paper introduces the principle of regional decomposition of electricity consumption. The influencing factors of electricity consumption are analyzed, and the index system of power consumption area decomposition is established according to the choice of representative index. Secondly, the entropy method and the dynamic analysis method based on time dimension are introduced into the model. A regional decomposition model of electricity consumption based on information entropy is constructed. At the same time, with the current electricity consumption as the initial distribution, the Gini coefficient optimization adjustment method is used to establish the regional decomposition model of electricity consumption based on the Gini coefficient method. Finally, In this paper, two regional decomposition models of electric power consumption are analyzed, and the national power consumption control target is decomposed into different regions at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, and the difference and applicability of the two methods are compared and analyzed. The results show that the decomposition method based on information entropy has more advantages in reflecting the differences of different regions, and is more suitable for application in the present situation where the economic and social development of different regions in China is quite different.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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