基于WSR系统论的变电工程造价分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 03:22

本文关键词： 变电工程造价 WSR系统论支持向量机模糊偏好解释结构模型　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国国民经济的飞速发展,电力需求高速增长,由此推进了变电站建设的大规模兴起。为了电力工程建设项目的健康、持续、稳定发展,其投资经济性必须要得到科学的规划和控制。变电工程造价研究是实现电力工程投资效益的关键,也是关系电力相关行业未来发展路径的首要问题。本文利用“事理”-“人理”-“物理”(WSR)系统方法论对变电工程造价的影响因素开展系统性识别,构建相应的“人理”、“事理”、以及“物理”体系,并对其进行深度解析。首先介绍我国变电工程造价目前的研究背景,以及国内外变电工程造价管理研究现状。其次详细梳理WSR系统论的内容、原则、特点、以及流程步骤,并分析利用WSR系统论研究变电工程造价的适用性。然后,运用“WSR”理论将庞杂的变电工程造价影响因素构建为“物理”、“事理”、“人理”体系。最后针对国内某地区的“十一五”变电站造价历史数据,利用数据挖掘方法对所构建的“物理”体系进行数据预处理和偏相关分析,同时运用支持向量机方法构建了变电站估算模型,并验证其预测优越性。运用模糊偏好方法对“事理”体系进行了指标评价。运用解释结构模型对“人理”体系进行指标的阶层划分,得到深层指标、浅层指标和表层指标,并对所呈现的结果进行合理解释。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's national economy and the rapid growth of power demand, the large-scale rise of substation construction has been promoted. For the healthy, sustained and stable development of electric power engineering construction projects, The research on the cost of substation project is the key to realize the benefit of power engineering investment, and it is also the most important issue related to the future development path of the electric power industry. In this paper, the systematic identification of the factors affecting the cost of substation engineering is carried out by using the methodology of "principle"-"human principle"-"physics") system, and the corresponding "human principle", "principle" and "physics" system are constructed. First of all, it introduces the research background of the cost of substation engineering in China and the current research situation of cost management in China and abroad. Secondly, the contents, principles, characteristics and process steps of WSR system theory are analyzed in detail. The applicability of using WSR system theory to study the cost of substation project is analyzed. Based on the theory of "WSR", the influential factors of the cost of substation engineering are constructed as "physics", "principle" and "human science" system. Finally, according to the historical data of substation cost in a certain area in China, The data preprocessing and partial correlation analysis of the constructed "physical" system are carried out by using the data mining method. At the same time, the substation estimation model is constructed by using the support vector machine (SVM) method. The prediction superiority is verified. The index evaluation of "principle" system is carried out by using fuzzy preference method. The stratification of "human science" system is carried out by using the explanatory structure model, and the deep index, shallow index and surface index are obtained. The results presented are explained reasonably.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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