建筑节能中太阳能利用的技术经济评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 02:04

本文选题：太阳能热水系统　切入点：成本分析　出处：《云南师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：太阳能热水器给企业带来的显著节能效益，加上技术上成熟，最近几年越来越受市场欢迎。但对其经济性缺少一个定量的分析与预测，而企业要进行对系统有效的管理，就要对项目有个定量的认识。针对此矛盾，本文借助云南德范绿源科技有限公司为石林某酒店设计和实施太阳能热水系统的机会，对太阳能酒店热水系统的价值进行评估。针对所做工作具体开展了如下研究：（1）太阳能热水系统投资风险的衡量，非上市公司的系统风险难以直接度量，利用证券市场反馈过来的信息，先算出太阳能行业上市公司的系统风险，再估算出此系统的β值。其结果表明：考虑负债成分下项目的β值为1.275。（2）项目的必要报酬率，由第一步得知β值，长期国债利率视为无风险利率，GDP（9.8%）增长率作为市场平均报酬率，中国银行长期贷款利率为6.55%，酒店资产负债率为36.6%。其结果表明：太阳能热水系统所占用资金的必要报酬率为11.58%，加权平均资本成本为9.14%。（3）通过系统实际运行状况，，每年可以节约费用支出137,798元，多交所得税34,450元，二氧化碳减排量124T/a，二氧化硫减排量1T/a，粉尘减排量0.5T/a。税后每年现金净流入量（相对燃油锅炉热水系统每年节约费用支出）为111,460元，太阳能热水系统税后净现值为239,315元，税后动态回收期为5.60年；税后内含报酬率为19.73%。（4）通过杜邦财务分析，得出权益净利率为27.37%，并对其作了敏感性分析，其结果为：安装太阳能热水系统相比于原燃油锅炉热水系统所带来的净利率对权益净利率敏感度1.57%为最高，贷款利率敏感度只有0.19%为最低。对系统进行本量利研究，其盈亏临界点的产热水量要达到39709吨，超过39709吨后才能带来盈利。
[Abstract]:The remarkable energy-saving benefits brought to enterprises by solar water heaters, coupled with their technical maturity, have become increasingly popular in the market in recent years. However, there is a lack of a quantitative analysis and prediction of their economy, and enterprises want to manage the system effectively. In view of this contradiction, this paper uses Yunnan Defan Green Source Technology Co., Ltd. to design and implement a solar water heating system for a hotel in Shilin. Evaluate the value of the solar hotel hot water system. The following studies have been carried out in the light of the work done:. 1) to measure the investment risk of solar water heating system, the system risk of the non-listed company is difficult to measure directly. The system risk of the listed company in the solar energy industry can be calculated first by using the information feedback from the stock market. The 尾 value of the system is estimated. The result shows that the 尾 value of the project is 1.275 when the liability component is taken into account. (2) the necessary rate of return for the project. The first step is to know the value of 尾. The interest rate on long-term government bonds is regarded as a risk-free interest rate.) the growth rate is taken as the market average rate of return. The bank of China's long-term loan interest rate is 6.55 and the hotel's asset-liability ratio is 36.6. The results show that the necessary rate of return for the funds occupied by the solar water heating system is 11.58 and the weighted average capital cost is 9.14. Through the actual operation of the system, we can save 137,798 yuan in expenses and 34,450 yuan in income tax each year. Carbon dioxide emission reduction 124T / a, sulfur dioxide emission reduction 1T / a, dust emission reduction 0.5T / a. Net cash inflow after tax (cost savings per year relative to oil-fired boiler hot water system) is 111,460 yuan, and the net present value of solar water heating system after tax is 239,315 yuan. The dynamic payback period after tax is 5.60 years and the rate of return after tax is 19.73. Through the financial analysis of DuPont, the net interest rate of equity is 27.377.The sensitivity analysis is made. The results are as follows: the sensitivity of installing solar water heating system to the net interest rate brought by the original oil-fired boiler hot water system compared with that of the original oil-fired boiler hot water system is 1.57% is the highest. The sensitivity of loan interest rate is only 0.19% is the lowest. For the system, the critical point of profit and loss must reach 39709 tons of hot water, more than 39709 tons can bring profit.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.6;F719

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