复杂风险环境下弹性生物能源供应链网络建模与优化

发布时间：2018-03-20 11:55

本文选题：复杂风险　切入点：情境　出处：《东北大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济的高速发展,全球性能源危机、环境污染等问题愈演愈烈。传统的能源结构已经无法满足人类生产生活的需求,人们开始积极寻找既清洁又可再生的新能源。生物能源因其原料易得、清洁度高等独特优势很快成为了新能源中的主力军,受到了许多国家乃至全球的关注,例如巴西、美国等,其生物能源的利用已经初具规模。发展生物能源产业已成为包括中国在内的世界能源政策的一个重要方向。生物能源在为解决世界能源危机做出贡献的同时,也带来了新的风险与挑战,即为了保证生物能源产业健康发展,一个合理有效的供应链网络是必不可少的。生物能源供应链网络主要包括原材料产地、原料收集中心、精炼厂及最终需求中心四个阶段。由于网络中各节点设施间具有较高的依存度,因此失效风险及不确定性事件一旦发生就极易产生连锁反应,所产生的影响将迅速波及整个生物能源供应链网络,最终导致生物能源企业利润下降,甚至威胁其生存。近年来,随着世界环境日益复杂,失效及不确定性事件的发生越来越频繁。其中失效风险主要表现为自然灾害、事故灾难、社会公共安全事件等几大类,而不确定性因素则主要表现在供应、需求、价格等方面,且在生物能源供应链网络的实际运营中,二者经常融合在一起形成复杂的风险环境,这就给供应链网络决策者进行决策带来了更大的挑战。因此,复杂风险环境下的弹性生物能源供应链网络优化显得尤为重要。针对上述问题,本文在前人研究的基础上,对复杂风险环境下的弹性生物能源供应链网络集成优化问题进行了比较深入的探讨和研究。主要研究工作如下：(1)介绍了本文的研究背景及相关意义,并进一步提出了全文的研究思路框架和研究内容。(2)对弹性生物能源供应链网络优化的相关理论及现有文献进行了总结概述,主要包括生物能源供应链网络优化、供应链网络风险管理以及失效风险环境下的弹性供应链网络优化等三个方面的内容。(3)设计了复杂风险环境下的四级单周期生物能源供应链网络,通过多源供应及替代源供应等策略来增加供应链网络的弹性,以应对复杂风险的威胁。同时,以系统成本最小化及金融风险最小化为目标分别建立了基于情境的供应链网络优化模型。(4)算例分析。通过算例对上面所建数学模型进行求解及灵敏度分析,最终验证了所建模型的合理性及有效性。(5)最后对全文内容进行总结,给出研究结论,并指出存在的不足,最后对下一步研究工作进行了合理的展望。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the world economy, the global energy crisis, environmental pollution and other problems have intensified. The traditional energy structure can no longer meet the needs of human production and life. People are actively looking for new sources of energy that are both clean and renewable. Bioenergy, because of its readily available raw materials, has quickly become the main force in new energy sources, with the unique advantage of higher cleanliness, which has attracted the attention of many countries and even the world, such as Brazil. The use of bioenergy in the United States has begun to take shape. Developing the bioenergy industry has become an important direction of world energy policy, including China. While making contributions to the solution of the world energy crisis, bioenergy has made its contribution to the solution of the world energy crisis. It also brings new risks and challenges, that is, in order to ensure the healthy development of bioenergy industry, a reasonable and effective supply chain network is essential. Because of the high degree of dependence among the node facilities in the network, failure risk and uncertainty can easily produce a chain reaction once they occur. The impact will quickly spread to the entire bioenergy supply chain network, leading to a decline in profits and even a threat to the survival of bioenergy companies. In recent years, as the world environment becomes increasingly complex, Failure and uncertainty events occur more and more frequently. The risk of failure is mainly manifested in natural disasters, accident disasters, social public safety events and so on, while uncertainty factors are mainly manifested in supply, demand, price and so on. And in the actual operation of the bioenergy supply chain network, they often merge together to form a complex risk environment, which brings more challenges to the decision makers of the supply chain network. The optimization of elastic bioenergy supply chain network in complex risk environment is particularly important. In this paper, the integration optimization problem of flexible bioenergy supply chain in complex risk environment is discussed and studied in depth. The main research work is as follows: 1) the background and significance of this paper are introduced. Furthermore, the paper puts forward the research framework and research content of this paper. It summarizes the related theories and existing literatures on the optimization of elastic bioenergy supply chain network, mainly including the optimization of bio-energy supply chain network. Supply chain network risk management and flexible supply chain network optimization under failure risk environment. To increase the flexibility of supply chain networks through such strategies as multi-source supply and alternative source supply to cope with the threat of complex risks. At the same time, Taking the system cost minimization and financial risk minimization as the goal, this paper establishes a situation-based supply chain network optimization model. An example is given to solve the above mathematical model and to analyze its sensitivity. Finally, the rationality and validity of the model are verified. Finally, the content of the paper is summarized, the research conclusions are given, and the shortcomings are pointed out. Finally, a reasonable prospect of the next research work is given.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F274;F426.2

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