中国钢铁资源与生产流程结构的长期预测——基于动态物质流与ARIMA-Logistic组合模型

发布时间：2018-04-03 18:53

本文选题：钢铁工业　切入点：生产流程　出处：《资源科学》2014年03期

【摘要】：钢铁是社会经济发展的重要基础材料,在钢铁生产过程中,"电炉短流程"比"高炉长流程"的能耗、排放与资源消耗都要低。作为"短流程"的重要原料,废钢是钢铁流程演变的重要驱动力。本文在1960-2009年钢铁相关数据的基础上,建立了以ARIMA-Logistic组合模型和动态物质流分析为主的系统研究框架展开研究。结果表明:ARIMA-Logistic组合模型比单一Logistic模型能更准确地预测中国钢铁积蓄量的增长;从2010年开始,折旧废钢量会快速上升而钢铁需求量相对保持平稳;"短流程"将会逐渐替代目前主流的"长流程",并在2043年之后成为主流程。这将有效减少钢铁工业对铁矿石的依赖,同时,社会废钢回收变得十分重要。为此,政府应出台相关政策,指导钢铁生产企业通过合理调整生产结构来应对钢铁流程结构的演变,同时要引导社会建立废钢处理、拆解、利用的产业链。
[Abstract]:Iron and steel is an important basic material for the development of social economy. In the process of iron and steel production, the energy consumption, discharge and resource consumption of "electric furnace short flow" are lower than "blast furnace long process".As an important raw material of short process, scrap is an important driving force in the evolution of iron and steel process.Based on the related data of steel and iron from 1960 to 2009, a systematic research framework based on ARIMA-Logistic combination model and dynamic material flow analysis is established.The results show that the weight ARIMA-Logistic model is more accurate than the single Logistic model in predicting the growth of iron and steel accumulation in China.Depreciation scrap will rise rapidly and demand for steel will remain relatively stable; the "short process" will gradually replace the current mainstream "long process" and become the main process after 2043.This would effectively reduce the iron ore industry's dependence on iron ore, and social scrap recycling would become important.Therefore, the government should issue relevant policies to guide iron and steel production enterprises to adjust their production structure to cope with the evolution of iron and steel process structure, and to guide the society to establish the industrial chain of scrap treatment, disassembly and utilization.
【作者单位】：北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院;北京科技大学机械工程学院;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目“钢铁流程系统的能耗排放特征及其广义热力学优化”(编号2012CB720405)
【分类号】：F426.31

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