风力发电工程投标报价风险分析及决策研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 01:57

本文选题：风力发电　切入点：投标报价　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会的高速发展和科技的不断进步,社会对能源的需求量不断增加,风力发电在国家政策的大力支持下,迅速地发展起来。风力发电涉及到技术、资金、劳动力、科技、现代化信息管理等各个方面,因此是一个充满着各种风险的复杂不确定性过程,而投标报价是风力发电过程中的一个重要过程,投标报价的风险受工程性质、技术、资源、环境、时间等各方面的影响。因此投标方在投标报价时面临着巨大的风险,如果不重视或者忽视这些风险,投标方则有可能不能中标,而且还面临着巨大的损失。因此投标方在投标报价时要加强风险的分析和研究,在对风险合理评估的基础上投标报价,不仅能起到降低风险的作用,而且还有可能中标实现盈利的目的。本文在简要介绍了风力发电工程投标报价的背景、现状及存在问题的基础上,提出了改进的最低可接受投标报价风险决策模型。首先对影响风力发电工程投标报价的各种风险因素进行了系统的识别和分类,并通过风险定量评价方法进行了风险值的量化,求得各风险因素权重的大小；其次在最低可接受投标报价模型基础之上,引进了影响投标报价的相对偏离系数,通过已经确定的定量化的风险因素权重和相对偏离系数提出了投标报价修正系数,然后将修正系数和各投标方的中标概率结合产生了投标报价检验值,在检验值的基础上对投标方的投标报价进行了分析,确定最优报价；最后用改进的投标报价模型对某一风电工程进行了实例验证计算,求得了最优报价,证明了模型的可行性和科学性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of society and the continuous progress of science and technology, the demand for energy is increasing, and wind power generation is developing rapidly with the support of national policies.Wind power generation involves technology, capital, labor, science and technology, modern information management and other aspects, so it is a complex and uncertain process full of various risks, and bidding is an important process in the process of wind power generation.The risk of bidding is affected by engineering nature, technology, resources, environment, time and so on.Therefore, the bidder is faced with great risks when bidding. If these risks are not valued or ignored, the bidder may not be able to win the bid and face huge losses.Therefore, the bidder should strengthen the risk analysis and research when bidding, and bid on the basis of reasonable assessment of risk, not only can play a role in reducing risk, but also may win the bid to achieve the purpose of profit.On the basis of a brief introduction of the background, present situation and existing problems of bidding quotation for wind power generation project, an improved risk decision model for lowest acceptable bidding price is proposed.Firstly, the paper systematically identifies and classifies the various risk factors that affect the bidding price of wind power project, and quantifies the risk value by means of the risk quantitative evaluation method, and obtains the weight of each risk factor.Secondly, on the basis of the lowest acceptable bid quotation model, the relative deviation coefficient which affects the bid price is introduced, and the revised coefficient of bid price is put forward through the quantitative risk factor weight and the relative deviation coefficient that have been determined.Then, the revised coefficient and the winning probability of each bidder are combined to produce the test value of the bid quotation, and on the basis of the test value, the bidding price of the bidder is analyzed to determine the best price.Finally, an example of a wind power project is given by using the improved bidding quotation model, and the optimal quotation is obtained, which proves the feasibility and scientific nature of the model.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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