动态视角下可再生对不可再生能源的替代

发布时间：2018-04-09 09:39

本文选题：能源替代　切入点：不可再生能源　出处：《系统工程》2014年03期

【摘要】：基于可再生能源对不可再生能源替代视角研究能源企业间的动态博弈问题。假定不可再生能源企业面对的是能源储量约束,而可再生能源企业面对的是技术知识约束,并将RD投资作为可再生能源的决策变量。本文的基本结论为:(1)可再生能源产出增长率恒为正,且不断增大;不可再生能源产出增长率恒为负,且不断降低。但在替代过程中,能源总产出增长率的符号不确定,为正的条件是技术积累的正效应大于市场博弈的负效应。(2)能源替代速率恒为正,即可再生能源会逐步取代不可再生能源。替代速率随能源间差异性降低而增加,随技术折旧率减小而增大,随贴现率的增加而增加。(3)当不可再生能源企业退出市场时,系统刚好达到鞍点均衡。即存在一条稳定路径趋向均衡点。
[Abstract]:Based on the perspective of renewable energy alternatives to non-renewable energy, the dynamic game problem among energy enterprises is studied.It is assumed that non-renewable energy enterprises face energy reserve constraints, while renewable energy enterprises face technical knowledge constraints, and R D investment is regarded as the decision variable of renewable energy.The basic conclusion of this paper is: (1) the growth rate of renewable energy output is always positive and increasing, while the growth rate of non-renewable energy output is always negative and decreasing.However, in the process of substitution, the sign of total energy output growth rate is uncertain, and the positive condition is that the positive effect of technology accumulation is greater than the negative effect of market game. 2) the rate of energy substitution is constant and positive, that is, renewable energy will gradually replace non-renewable energy.The substitution rate increases with the decrease of energy difference, increases with the decrease of technology depreciation rate, and increases with the increase of discount rate) when the non-renewable energy enterprises withdraw from the market, the system reaches the saddle point equilibrium.That is, there is a stable path towards equilibrium point.
【作者单位】：暨南大学产业经济研究院;
【基金】：广东省高等学校珠江学者岗位计划项目(2012) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271100)
【分类号】：F407.22

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