海外铁矿资源开发投资环境评价研究与应用

发布时间：2018-04-20 06:23

本文选题：铁矿 + 海外开发　；参考：《江西理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本论文来源于教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“重要矿产资源海外开发战略选区风险评价技术研究”（项目编号：12YJA790208）。本文以海外矿产资源开发投资环境评价为研究主线，在投资环境评价理论及国内外研究进展的基础上，以铁矿资源为例利用变权理论与方法对海外矿产资源开发投资环境进行评价。本文的主要研究内容及结论如下：阐述了选题背景以及研究的理论意义和实际意义。全面综述了投资环境的理论基础、传统投资环境的评价方法及投资环境评价的国内外研究进展，并在此基础上提出以变权理论为主的研究方法和技术路线，丰富了传统的投资环境评价方法。以我国粗钢产量、我国生铁产量和我国GDP增长率为驱动变量，建立了我国铁矿资源需求情景数学模型，利用BP软件对模型进行了测算，得出我国铁矿资源在2013~2025年的进口依赖程度处于25%~35%之间。系统分析了影响海外铁矿资源开发的主要因素，包括政治法规环境、宏观经济环境、矿业市场环境、社会文化环境和自然资源环境。根据影响海外铁矿资源开发的主要因素，构建了海外铁矿资源开发投资环境评价指标体系，利用专家调查法确定了各个评价指标的权重，然后根据指标数值确定了指标分级规则和评价等级集合。确定了14个铁矿资源比较丰富的国家为评价对象，详细分析了所评价国家各个指标的情况，建立了常权和变权评价模型，并对所评价国家的政治法规环境、宏观经济环境、矿业市场环境、社会文化环境和自然资源环境等分别进行了评价，最后对被评价国家铁矿资源开发投资环境进行了综合评价。研究结果表明：拥有极端指标的国家在受惩罚变权后，其评价结果会发生变化，在进行海外铁矿资源开发区位选择时应注意东道国极端指标的影响。根据评价结果提出了海外铁矿资源开发的首选区、次选区和慎选区，评价结果和实际较为吻合，因此，，所建立的模型具有较好的理论价值和实际应用价值。
[Abstract]:This paper comes from the project of the Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Research Planning Fund, "Research on risk Assessment Technology for overseas Development of important Mineral Resources" (Project No.: 12YJA790208). In this paper, the investment environment evaluation of overseas mineral resources development is the main line of study, on the basis of investment environment evaluation theory and research progress at home and abroad, Taking iron ore resources as an example, the investment environment of overseas mineral resources development is evaluated by using variable weight theory and method. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: The background of the topic and the theoretical and practical significance of the research are expounded. This paper summarizes the theoretical basis of the investment environment, the evaluation methods of the traditional investment environment and the research progress of the investment environment evaluation at home and abroad, and puts forward the research methods and technical routes based on the variable weight theory. Has enriched the traditional investment environment appraisal method. Taking crude steel output, pig iron output and GDP growth rate as driving variables, a scenario mathematical model of iron ore resource demand in China is established, and the model is calculated by using BP software. It is concluded that the import dependence of iron ore resources in China from 2013 to 2025 is between 25% and 35%. The main factors affecting the development of overseas iron ore resources are systematically analyzed, including political and regulatory environment, macroeconomic environment, mining market environment, social and cultural environment and natural resource environment. According to the main factors affecting the development of overseas iron ore resources, the evaluation index system of investment environment for overseas iron ore resources development is constructed, and the weight of each evaluation index is determined by the method of expert investigation. Then, according to the index value, the index classification rule and evaluation grade set are determined. 14 countries with rich iron ore resources are selected as the evaluation objects, the situation of each index of the country evaluated is analyzed in detail, the evaluation models of constant power and variable weight are established, and the political and regulatory environment and macroeconomic environment of the countries evaluated are also given. The mining market environment, social and cultural environment and natural resources environment were evaluated respectively. Finally, the investment environment of iron ore resources in the evaluated country was comprehensively evaluated. The results show that the evaluation results of countries with extreme indicators will change after being punished, and the influence of extreme indicators of host country should be paid attention to when selecting the location of overseas iron ore resources development. According to the evaluation results, the preferred area, sub-district and careful selection area for the exploitation of overseas iron ore resources are put forward. The evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual situation. Therefore, the established model has good theoretical value and practical application value.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F416.1

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