芙蓉江流域水电资源开发问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 02:14

本文选题：水能资源开发 + 项目投资　；参考：《清华大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：贵州北源电力股份有限公司成立十年，前后投资11亿多元进行贵州芙蓉江流域水能资源开发，公司计划通过流域滚动开发的方式，将已建电站的发电收益用于后续项目开发，用十年时间逐步开发建成贵州芙蓉江流域规划中的六个梯级水电站，共计装机规模23.5万kW。然而，从公司第一个项目投产至今，所建成水电站一直连续亏损运行，从2005年鱼塘水电站投产至2012年底，贵州北源电力股份有限公司已累计亏损1.6亿元，公司面临极大的生存压力。论文通过对已建和在建项目的经济指标的变化进行研究，得出了以下三个方面的结论：一是采用对比分析的方法，依据对建成项目的实际费用组成与项目核准概算数据间的对比分析，分别对照了项目总投资、建筑工程投资、移民工程投资等具体指标的绝对值变化和相对值变化，得出了“建设成本大幅增加是造成项目建成后实际经营效果无法达到预期的主要因素”的结论；二是依据收集到的鱼塘、清溪两个已经投产多年的水电站多年实际平均发电量与设计多年平均发电量的差异，计算实际的经营收入与设计预期之间的差距，得出了“已建成水电站发电能力无法达到设计预期是影响投产电站经营效益的重要原因”的结论；三是通过分析已投产项目的实际运行成本，进一步得到了“运行成本的增加也是造成项目经营困境的原因之一”的结论。针对上述结论，，论文提出了应该从以下五个方面采取措施：一是建设单位要重视项目决策过程中的设计审查和优化工作，确保设计概算能够真实的反映项目投资成本，为投资决策提供可靠依据，从源头上防止项目投资失控；二是地方政府的优惠承诺的落实是降低项目建设成本和运营成本的重要保证，投资人必须在项目落地前采取书面甚至法律的方式得到相关方面的认可和明确，避免项目一旦开工承诺多数沦为一纸空文的情况出现；三是利用行业协会等组织，积极争取国家对可再生能源的扶持政策得到真正落实，为中小水电项目争取到合理的上网电价，从而使得建成电站的营业收入得到合理稳定的增长；四是利用信息技术的发展，发挥水电站的资源优势，切实降低建成项目的管理成本；五是要结合水电项目生命周期长、运行稳定的特点，正确分析和评价项目的经济指标，在项目经济评价过程中引入动态评价参数，避免因短期效益达不到经济评价要求而错失项目开发机遇。
[Abstract]:Guizhou Beyuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. was established for ten years, and invested more than 1.1 billion yuan in the exploitation of hydropower resources in the Furong River basin in Guizhou. The company plans to use the power generation income of the established power station for the subsequent project development through the rolling development of the river basin. Six cascaded hydropower stations in the planning of the Furong River Basin in Guizhou Province have been gradually developed and built in ten years, with a total installed capacity of 235000 kW. However, since the company's first project was put into operation, the built hydropower station has been running at a continuous loss. From the year 2005 to the end of 2012, Guizhou Beiyuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. has made a cumulative loss of 160 million yuan. The company is under great pressure to survive. Based on the research on the change of economic indicators of the existing projects under construction, the paper draws the following three conclusions: first, the method of comparative analysis is adopted. Based on the comparative analysis of the actual cost composition of the completed project and the data of the project approval estimate, the absolute and relative value changes of the total project investment, the construction project investment and the resettlement project investment are compared respectively. It is concluded that "the substantial increase in construction cost is the main factor that causes the actual operating effect of the project to fail to achieve the expected results after the completion of the project"; the second is based on the fish ponds collected. The difference between the actual average power generation of two hydropower stations in Qingxi, which has been put into operation for many years, and the average power generation in the design years, and the difference between the actual operating income and the design expectation, It is concluded that the failure of power generation capacity of completed hydropower stations to meet the design expectations is an important reason for affecting the operational benefits of the power stations put into operation. The third is to analyze the actual operating costs of the projects that have been put into operation. The conclusion that the increase of running cost is also one of the causes of the project management dilemma is further obtained. In view of the above conclusions, the paper puts forward the following five measures: first, the construction unit should pay attention to the design review and optimization work in the decision-making process of the project to ensure that the design budget estimates can truly reflect the project investment cost. To provide a reliable basis for investment decisions and to prevent project investment from getting out of control at the source; second, the implementation of preferential commitments made by local governments is an important guarantee to reduce project construction costs and operational costs. Investors must adopt written or even legal means to obtain the approval and clarification of relevant parties before the project falls to the ground, so as to avoid the situation that most of the commitments to start the project will be reduced to a dead letter; third, they should make use of organizations such as trade associations. Actively strive for the implementation of the state's support policy for renewable energy, and strive for a reasonable electricity price for small and medium hydropower projects, thus making the operating income of the completed power station reasonably and steadily increase; fourth, the use of information technology for the development of the project. Give full play to the resource advantages of hydropower stations, and effectively reduce the management costs of completed projects. Fifth, we should correctly analyze and evaluate the economic indicators of hydropower projects in the light of the characteristics of their long life cycle and stable operation. Dynamic evaluation parameters are introduced in the process of project economic evaluation to avoid missing the opportunity of project development because short-term benefits can not meet the requirements of economic evaluation.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F426.91

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