生物质发电项目商业化可行性及政策支持研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 11:44

本文选题：生物质发电 + 效益分析　；参考：《杭州电子科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济发展，能源与环境问题成为世界各国需要面临的难题。据《世界能源统计2012》预测世界上三大主要的化石能源煤、石油、天然气将分别于112年、54年、63年以后消耗殆尽。不仅如此传统石化能源分布在少数几个国家，而那些国家多为战乱地区，因此石化能源的价格在不断上升。而全球气候变暖，温室效应，罕见雪灾，水灾，雾霾天气在这些年发生的频率也不断上升。发展可再生能源，可以缓解能源和环境压力，，可再生能源将逐渐替代传统能源，生物质能是可再生能源发展的重要领域。 2006年，我国第一座生物质发电厂在单县投入运行，到现在近6年。我国生物质发电还不够成熟，其商业化过程中还面临很多问题。本文研究围绕着生物质发电项目的商业化以及我国应采取的政策两个方面展开。在商业化研究方面本文做了以下工作：（1）根据我国生物质资源的分布以及数量，提出适合我国的生物质发电模式；（2）根据电监会等公布的历年电力数据，运用灰色预测模型对我国电力市场的需求，未来上网电价，装机规模进行了预测；（3）在合理选择发电模式的基础上，运用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对30MW的秸秆生物质发电厂的经济效益进行了分析；（4）分析了燃料成本和电价补贴对生物质发电项目经济效益的影响。在政策研究方面本文做了以下工作：（1）在大量翻阅国外网站的基础上，找出生物质发电开展较为先进的欧美国家，分析他们的生物质发电现状；（2）文献调查欧盟、美国的电力政策，总结其电力政策，并与我国的电力政策进行比较；（3）在商业化研究和政策比较后，分析了政府在商业化过程中扮演的作用，以及政府财政补贴政策、技术支持政策和规划与管理政策对生物质发电项目的支持作用，在此基础上提出了适合我国的生物质发电政策。本文在对商业化和政策研究得出了以下结论。商业化研究的结论：（1）在当前环境下，我国生物质发电项目具有合理的盈利空间，赢利概率在0.9左右；（2）短期内上网电价补贴仍将持续，未来可逐步下调政府的上网电价补贴，预计到2025年实现商业化发展；（3）我国目前的电价补贴力度是充分的，略有下调空间，可适当下调10元/千千瓦时；（4）秸秆成本的控制对生物质发电项目的效益影响很大，秸秆成本应控制在360元/吨以下。政策支持研究结论：（1）在技术上，需要加强在锅炉技术上的研发，逐步实现进口替代；（2）在规划和管理上，加强生物质电厂的布局，改变生物质电厂过度密集的现状；(3）在财政补贴上，加大对投资补贴的力度，可以将部分电价补贴转移到投资补贴上。
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economy, energy and environment problems have become a difficult problem all over the world. According to "World Energy Statistics 2012", it is predicted that the three major fossil energy coal, oil and natural gas will be exhausted in 112 years, 54 years and 63 years later respectively. Not only that, but traditional fossil energy is distributed in a few countries, most of which are war zones, so the price of fossil energy is rising. Global warming, Greenhouse Effect, rare snowstorms, floods and haze weather have also been on the rise in recent years. The development of renewable energy can relieve the pressure of energy and environment, renewable energy will gradually replace traditional energy, biomass energy is an important field of renewable energy development. In 2006, the first biomass power plant in China was put into operation in single county. Biomass power generation in China is not mature enough, and it still faces many problems in the process of commercialization. This paper focuses on the commercialization of biomass power generation projects and the policies to be adopted in China. In commercial research, this paper has done the following work: (1) according to the distribution and quantity of biomass resources in China, a biomass power generation model suitable for China is proposed. The grey forecasting model is used to forecast the demand of our country's electricity market, the electricity price and the installed scale in the future) on the basis of the reasonable selection of generation mode, Monte-Carlo simulation technology is used to analyze the economic benefit of straw biomass power plant in 30MW. (4) the influence of fuel cost and electricity price subsidy on the economic benefit of biomass power generation project is analyzed. In terms of policy research, this paper has done the following work: 1) on the basis of a large number of searches of foreign websites, we have found out the more advanced countries in Europe and the United States with regard to biomass power generation, and analyzed their status quo of biomass power generation.) the European Union and the United States have investigated the power policies of the European Union and the United States. After summing up its power policy and comparing it with the power policy of our country, this paper analyzes the government's role in the process of commercialization and the government's financial subsidy policy after the commercial research and policy comparison. On the basis of technical support policy and planning and management policy, the biomass power generation policy suitable for our country is put forward. This paper draws the following conclusions in the research of commercialization and policy. Conclusion of commercial research: 1) under the current environment, the biomass power generation project in China has reasonable profit space, and the profit probability is about 0.9%) the subsidy for electricity price on the Internet will continue in the short term, and the government subsidy for the electricity price on the Internet can be gradually reduced in the future. It is estimated that commercial development will be realized by 2025) the current power price subsidy in China is sufficient, and the space for a slight reduction can be reduced appropriately by 10 yuan per kilowatt-hour) the cost control of straw has a great impact on the benefit of biomass power generation projects. The cost of straw should be controlled under 360 yuan / ton. Policy support Research conclusion: 1) technically, it is necessary to strengthen the research and development of boiler technology, and gradually realize the import replacement, so as to strengthen the layout of biomass power plants in terms of planning and management. In order to change the over-intensive status quo of biomass power plants and increase the intensity of investment subsidies, some electricity price subsidies can be transferred to investment subsidies.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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