基于自由现金流量法的济草堂公司企业价值评估研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 14:16

本文选题：企业价值评估 + 自由现金流量　；参考：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于目前我国企业之间的并购重组、股权交易等活动日趋频繁，对企业价值进行合理评估，不仅是企业投资者评价经营者绩效，对其进行合理激励的依据，同时也是企业上市、并购和融资的前提。我国中小企业处于证券市场之外，缺乏市场定价，并且由于获取信息的数量、质量、渠道等存在着一定的差异，使得这类企业的价值评估方法在一定程度上有别于其他一些上市公司。近年来，以凉茶为主导产品的饮料行业异军突起，其资本运作也日渐活跃，产生了对资产评估业务的极大需求。自由现金流量模型是基于公司过往的比率，结合行业的发展大环境以及企业自身情况来预测该公司未来的经营情况，从而预测未来的现金流。由于饮料行业的中小企业规模小，所处的细分市场明确，只要产能足够大就能较快适应市场需求，发展速度呈高位增长，这样在评估中，，一些小的偏差并没有在本质上改变一个企业的价值，适合采用自由现金流量模型对其进行企业价值评估。本文试图将该模型应用于饮料行业的一家民营企业济草堂公司的企业价值评估中，为饮料行业的非上市中小企业价值评估提供参考。本文结合饮料行业的发展背景和产品特点，通过对济草堂公司进行SWOT分析、财务分析和风险分析，全面了解其发展现状、核心竞争力以及财务状况，并对其是否适用于自由现金流量法进行可行性分析。济草堂各类财务比率比较稳定并拥有正的现金流，其所在行业发展前景是可预期的，即可对其未来现金流量进行预测。本文采用自由现金流模型的两阶段法对济草堂公司进行企业价值评估，通过参数选择、数据筛选、计算过程、预测判断等整体流程，确定自由现金流量和折现率，从而得到合理的企业估价。最后，结论部分阐明了企业价值评估在为企业决策和理性投资提供指导方面的重要性。同时也从增加企业内在价值的角度，在经营管理者管理资产、控制成本费用方面提出建议。
[Abstract]:At present, M & A and stock exchange among enterprises in our country are becoming more and more frequent. To evaluate the enterprise value reasonably is not only the basis for enterprise investors to evaluate the performance of managers, but also the basis for reasonable incentives for them, and it is also the basis for the listing of enterprises. The premise of M & A and financing. Small and medium-sized enterprises in our country are outside the stock market and lack of market pricing, and because of the quantity, quality and channels of obtaining information, there are some differences. This kind of enterprise value evaluation method is different from some other listed companies to some extent. In recent years, the beverage industry with herbal tea as the dominant product has emerged suddenly, and its capital operation has become more and more active, resulting in a great demand for assets evaluation business. Free cash flow model is based on the company's past ratio, combined with the industry development environment and the enterprise's own situation to predict the company's future operating situation, thus predicting the future cash flow. Because of the small size of small and medium-sized enterprises in the beverage industry, they are in a clear market segment. As long as the production capacity is large enough, they will be able to adapt to the needs of the market and develop at a high rate of growth. Some small deviations do not fundamentally change the value of an enterprise, so it is suitable to use the free cash flow model to evaluate the enterprise value. This paper attempts to apply the model to the evaluation of the enterprise value of a private enterprise in the beverage industry, which provides a reference for the evaluation of the value of the non-listed small and medium-sized enterprises in the beverage industry. Based on the development background and product characteristics of beverage industry, this paper makes SWOT analysis, financial analysis and risk analysis to Jicaotang Company, so as to understand its development status, core competitiveness and financial situation. The feasibility of free cash flow method is analyzed. All kinds of financial ratios of Jichaotang are stable and have positive cash flow, and its industry development prospect is predictable, which can predict its future cash flow. This paper adopts the two-stage method of free cash flow model to evaluate the enterprise value of Jicaotang Company. Through the whole process of parameter selection, data screening, calculation process, prediction and judgment, the free cash flow and discount rate are determined. Thus obtains the reasonable enterprise appraisal. Finally, the conclusion illustrates the importance of enterprise value evaluation in providing guidance for enterprise decision-making and rational investment. At the same time, from the angle of increasing the intrinsic value of the enterprise, the paper puts forward some suggestions on managing assets and controlling cost and expense.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.82

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