我国省际制造业效率及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-25 20:17

本文选题：制造业 + 效率　；参考：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融危机对我国金融体系产生巨大冲击,同时也给我国制造业造成了深刻的影响。这让欧美国家认识到“去工业化”的危害,转而提出“重回制造业时代”的战略。“四万亿”投资计划对我国的上游制造业产生了直接的刺激作用,尤其是钢铁、建材等行业,同时也造成了投资过度的问题。近年来,出口受阻、用工荒、成本上升等不利因素也困扰着我国的制造业。由于我国区域经济发展的不平衡,制造业产出存在较大的地区和省际差异。在研究总结效率理论与模型的基础上,根据DEA方法的局限性和我国各省制造业所处的不同环境,本文选取三阶段DEA模型估计我国省际制造业效率。通过二阶段Tobit模型排除环境变量和随机误差项的影响,得出比较准确的效率输出结果。选用金融危机以后即2008年—2011年30个省市的制造业数据,选用制造业总产值、利润总额作为产出指标,制造业从业人数、制造业固定资产折旧作为投入指标,选用GDP、出口、创新、工资作为环境变量。实证研究表明：我国多个省市的制造业资本投入差额值较大,劳动投入没有差额值,说明我国存在明显的投资过多问题,也证实了用工荒的存在。GDP与投入差额值存在正向关系,说明经济越发达的省市投入过多的问题就越显著；创新、出口与投入差额值成负向关系,说明这两项对制造业效率有促进作用；工资与投入差额值成负向关系,说明工资提高带来成本上升的负面作用弱于对技术创新的正面作用,工资提高有利于促进制造业效率的进步。环境因素的存在使一阶段DEA效率值低于三阶段效率值。东部地区效率低于中西部地区,在生产过程中产生的投入差额值过多,产业转移是提高我国制造业效率的有效途径。我国大多省市的制造业处于规模报酬递减阶段,急需产业结构升级来改变现有的产出结构。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis has a great impact on our financial system, but also has a profound impact on our manufacturing industry. This made the European and American countries realize the harm of deindustrialization and put forward the strategy of returning to the manufacturing era. The "4 trillion" investment plan has a direct stimulating effect on the upstream manufacturing industry in China, especially in the steel, building materials and other industries, and has also caused the problem of excessive investment. In recent years, export is blocked, labor shortage, rising cost and other unfavorable factors haunt our manufacturing industry. Due to the imbalance of regional economic development in China, there are large regional and provincial differences in manufacturing output. Based on the study of efficiency theory and model, according to the limitation of DEA method and the different environments of manufacturing industry in various provinces of China, this paper selects the three-stage DEA model to estimate the efficiency of inter-provincial manufacturing industry in China. By eliminating the influence of environmental variables and random error terms, the two-stage Tobit model is used to obtain more accurate efficiency output results. Choose the manufacturing data of 30 provinces and cities after the financial crisis from 2008 to 2011, select the gross output value of manufacturing industry, total profit as the output index, the number of manufacturing workers, fixed asset depreciation of manufacturing industry as input index, choose GDP, export, etc. Innovation, wages as environmental variables. The empirical study shows that the difference value of manufacturing capital input in many provinces and cities in China is large, but the labor input is not, which indicates that there is an obvious problem of excessive investment in our country, and it also confirms the existence of labor shortage and the positive relationship between GDP and the difference value of input. It shows that the more developed provinces and cities have more investment, the more significant the problem is; the more innovation, the negative relationship between the value of export and the difference of input, which shows that these two items have a positive effect on the efficiency of manufacturing; and the negative relationship between wages and the difference of input. It is shown that the negative effect of higher wages is weaker than the positive effect on technological innovation, and wage increase is beneficial to the progress of manufacturing efficiency. The DEA efficiency of one stage is lower than that of three stages because of the existence of environmental factors. The efficiency of the eastern region is lower than that of the central and western regions, and the difference value of the input produced in the production process is too much. Industrial transfer is an effective way to improve the efficiency of China's manufacturing industry. The manufacturing industry in most provinces and cities of our country is in the stage of diminishing returns on scale, so it is urgent to upgrade the industrial structure to change the existing output structure.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F424

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