中国工业碳减排潜力估算

发布时间：2018-05-13 14:14

本文选题：工业碳减排 + 结构减排　；参考：《中国人口.资源与环境》2014年09期

【摘要】：工业是大多数国家碳排放最重要的领域,也是减排潜力最大、持续时间最长的领域。研究工业领域碳减排潜力对于理解中国碳排放峰值及参加国际气候变化谈判具有重大现实意义。本文采用经济核算的方法对2010-2050年我国工业碳减排潜力进行了估算。结果显示:在2030年工业碳排放达峰前,2010-2030年工业累积减排潜力为83.8亿t,其中,结构减排31.2亿t,强度减排52.6亿t;在2030年达峰之后,工业将继续为碳减排发挥积极贡献,2030-2050年累积减排潜力65.9亿t,其中,结构减排24.77亿t,强度减排41.15亿t。如果在这个过程中,工业内部结构和能源结构能得以进一步优化,则工业减排潜力更大,相应工业碳排放峰值将在原有预计基础上再下降8%左右,工业碳排放峰值也将提前至2025年前后出现。在估算中国工业碳减排潜力之前,考察了发达国家工业碳排放变化路径,发现工业可通过结构减排和强度减排"两个轮子"来为全国减排做出贡献,即使发达国家工业碳排放已越过峰值也是如此。文章的结论和对策建议是:1从工业碳排放达峰推断,中国不宜承诺于2030年之前实现总量达峰,并坚持绝对减排应在2035年之后;2我国工业部门持续碳减排潜力巨大,这为日后我国气候谈判增加了底气,"强度减排"主张可作为我国参加气候谈判的一个重要策略选项;3坚持市场在资源配置中的决定性作用改革取向,完善国内相关制度设计,将工业技术减排潜力充分发挥出来;4促进地区协调发展,充分发挥产业结构调整产生的减排效应,警惕由产业转移带来的产业结构逆向调整问题;5进一步加强国际合作,大力促进包括CCUS技术在内的工业碳减排技术的应用和发展。
[Abstract]:Industry is the most important area of carbon emissions in most countries. It is of great practical significance to study the potential of carbon emission reduction in industry for understanding China's peak carbon emissions and participating in international climate change negotiations. In this paper, the economic accounting method is used to estimate the industrial carbon abatement potential in China from 2010 to 2050. The results show that the potential of industrial cumulative emission reduction in the period 2010-2030 is 8.38 billion tons, of which structural emission reduction is 3.12 billion tons and intensity reduction is 5.26 billion tons. Industry will continue to make a positive contribution to carbon emission reduction. The cumulative emission reduction potential for 2030-2050 is 6.59 billion tons, of which structural emission reduction is 2.477 billion tons and intensity reduction is 4.115 billion tons. If the industrial internal structure and energy structure can be further optimized in the process, the potential for industrial emission reduction will be even greater, and the corresponding industrial carbon emission peak will be reduced by about 8% on the basis of the original forecast. Industrial carbon emissions peak will also be advanced to 2025 or so. Before estimating the potential of industrial carbon emission reduction in China, the paper examines the changing path of industrial carbon emissions in developed countries, and finds that industry can contribute to the national emission reduction through structural emission reduction and intensity emission reduction "two wheels". This is true even if industrial carbon emissions in developed countries have passed their peaks. The conclusions and suggestions of this paper are as follows: according to the industrial carbon emission peak, China should not commit to achieve the total carbon emission peak by 2030, and insist that the absolute emission reduction should be achieved after 2035. There is great potential for sustainable carbon emission reduction in China's industrial sector. This has increased the strength of our climate negotiations in the future. The "intensity reduction" proposal can be regarded as an important strategic option for our country to participate in climate negotiations. (3) We should adhere to the reform orientation of the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources and improve the design of relevant domestic systems. To give full play to the potential of industrial technology emission reduction to promote regional coordinated development, to give full play to the emission reduction effects of industrial structure adjustment, and to guard against the adverse adjustment of industrial structure brought about by industrial transfer. Vigorously promote the application and development of industrial carbon abatement technologies, including CCUS technology.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题“气候变化综合评价模型构建与模拟的关键技术研究”(编号:2012BAC20B01)
【分类号】：F423;X321

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