基于AHP和熵值法的中小医药企业灰色综合信用评价

发布时间：2018-05-17 10:36

  本文选题：信用评价 + 中小医药企业　； 参考：《电子科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的不断发展，作为民生类基础性行业——医药行业，受关注程度越来越高。人们在越来越关心自身健康的同时，也更加关注医药企业的信用状况，尤其是中小医药企业。国家不断适时地出台各项规章制度来约束和规范医药市场，银行与投资者也越来越关注新兴中小医药企业的信用状况，以减少投资风险。目前国内信用评价体系陈旧，评价方法不够具体成熟，针对性与适用性较弱。因此，需要我们改变研究思路，寻找新方法，不断尝试引入新兴交叉学科的优秀科研成果，结合我国具体国情社情设计一套有利于客观、公平、公正地对我国中小医药企业进行信用评价的体系和方法，，这对于规范医药市场、改善融资环境，促进企业快速、健康、可持续发展有着重要而积极的意义。 我国中小医药企业特点：一、我国医药行业属于技术密集型产业，对技术含量、创新能力和技术资本投入要求高，具有高门槛、高投入、高风险、长周期的特点；二、中小企业的标志是规模小、不成熟、高速成长性和不确定性。因此本文结合两者特点，设计了包含财务与非财务因素、静态与动态指标、还款能力与信用历史状况相结合的中小医药企业信用评价指标体系，打破了国内信用评级机构已有的因素考虑不周全、财务信息过重、无行业针对性、不考虑政策和国情因素影响的现状，提高了信用评价结果的可信度和可解释性。 本文的研究内容如下： 首先，本文系统介绍了我国中小医药企业、信用风险和灰色系统的研究现状和理论基础；其次，本文通过大量的文献阅读、问卷调查和专家学者访问结合的方法来确定我国中小医药企业的信用评价指标体系，在指标权重确定方面，结合AHP和熵值法，对已筛选的评价指标进行组合赋权，使得指标权重既反映了专家主观经验，又反映了数据自身特点，从而尽量避免现有指标权重设计过分依赖专家经验的不足；再次，依据我国中小医药企业成立时间短、原始数据缺乏、样本量不足、信息披露不彻底等诸多不确定因素的特点，运用灰色系统理论的方法来评估中小医药企业信用状况是比较恰当的，并且做了对比分析；最后，对深交所中小板全部18家中小医药企业的信用风险进行实证研究，验证了方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of social economy, as the basic industry of people's livelihood-pharmaceutical industry, the degree of concern is getting higher and higher. People are more and more concerned about their own health, but also pay more attention to the credit status of pharmaceutical enterprises, especially small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises. In order to reduce the investment risk, banks and investors are paying more and more attention to the credit status of the new small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises. At present, the domestic credit evaluation system is old, the evaluation method is not specific and mature, the pertinence and applicability are weak. Therefore, it is necessary for us to change our research ideas, find new methods, constantly try to introduce the outstanding scientific research results of emerging interdisciplinary disciplines, and design a set of scientific research results that are beneficial to objectivity and fairness in the light of the specific conditions of our country. The system and method of credit evaluation for small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises in China are fair, which is of great and positive significance for standardizing the pharmaceutical market, improving the financing environment, promoting the rapid, healthy and sustainable development of the enterprises. The characteristics of small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises in China are as follows: first, the pharmaceutical industry in China is a technology-intensive industry, which requires high technological content, innovation ability and technical capital investment, and has the characteristics of high threshold, high investment, high risk and long period; second, The symbol of small and medium-sized enterprises is small, immature, high-speed growth and uncertainty. Therefore, combining the characteristics of the two, this paper designs a credit evaluation index system for small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises, which includes financial and non-financial factors, static and dynamic indicators, repayment ability and credit history. The existing factors of domestic credit rating agencies are considered insufficiently, the financial information is too heavy, the industry is not targeted, the influence of policy and national factors is not considered, and the credibility and interpretability of the credit evaluation results are improved. The contents of this paper are as follows: First of all, this paper systematically introduces the research status and theoretical basis of the small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises in China, credit risk and grey system; secondly, this paper through a large number of literature reading, The credit evaluation index system of small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises in our country is determined by the methods of questionnaire survey and experts and scholars' visits. In the aspect of determining the index weight, combined with AHP and entropy method, the selected evaluation indexes are combined and weighted. The index weight not only reflects the subjective experience of experts, but also reflects the characteristics of the data itself, so as to avoid the deficiency of the existing index weight design relying too much on expert experience. Thirdly, according to the short time of establishment of small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises in China, The characteristics of many uncertain factors, such as lack of original data, insufficient sample size, incomplete information disclosure, etc., it is more appropriate to use the method of grey system theory to evaluate the credit status of small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises, and make a comparative analysis. An empirical study on the credit risk of all 18 small pharmaceutical enterprises on Shenzhen Stock Exchange is carried out, which verifies the feasibility of the method.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.72;F276.3;N941.5

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