考虑指标偏好间关联的新能源发电绩效评价及其在江苏省的应用

发布时间：2018-05-25 10:40

本文选题：新能源发电绩效 + 模糊测度　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于化石能源的日趋减少、环境污染及气候变化等问题的影响，大力发展新能源电力已成为全世界的广泛共识。然而不同国家在新能源资源、技术、环境及社会等方面的特征并不相同且每类新能源电力都有其自身的优势和劣势。如何在资金、政策和技术一定的情况下，确定新能源电力的重点发展领域，从而使新能源电力能够更加可持续性发展，，已成为各地区所广泛关注的问题。本研究从以上问题出发，构建新能源发电绩效评价指标体系，研究基于IVTI方法的多指标评价模型，并对江苏省新能源发电绩效评价进行了讨论。首先，基于新能源发电绩效评价指标体系构建原则，从技术、经济、环境和社会四个方面选取了技术效率、安全性、投资成本、运行维护成本、电力成本、二氧化碳减排量、土地使用、提供就业数和年均上网电量9个二级指标，并对指标偏好间存在的关联作了定性分析。随后，考虑到指标取值的不确定性及指标偏好间存在的关联，通过集成区间数运算和模糊测度理论定义了IVGAI算子，研究了该算子的相关性质，并基于IVGAI算子和II距离函数构建了基于IVTI方法的多指标评价模型。通过案例分析发现，基于IVTI方法的多指标评价模型更具有合理性、现实性与通用性。最后，基于常权和变权IVTI方法对江苏省新能源发电绩效进行了应用研究。其中常权IVTI方法评价结果显示江苏省最适合发展的是核电（0.781），其次分别是生物质发电（0.262）和风电（0.227），最后是光伏电力（0.173）。而从变权角度分析发现，指标权重的设置对新能源发电绩效最终评价结果具有较大的影响，江苏在进行新能源电力投资决策时，应更好结合当地技术、经济、环境及社会等各方面的实际情况，充分考虑各利益相关方的意见，选取最为有利的指标偏好方案。
[Abstract]:Due to the decrease of fossil energy and the impact of environmental pollution and climate change, it has become a worldwide consensus to develop new energy and electricity. However, different countries have different characteristics in new energy resources, technology, environment and society, and each kind of new energy power has its own advantages and disadvantages. How to determine the key areas of new energy and power development under the condition of certain funds, policies and technologies, so as to make the new energy and power development more sustainable, has become a widespread concern in various regions. Based on the above problems, this paper constructs a new energy generation performance evaluation index system, studies the multi-index evaluation model based on IVTI method, and discusses the performance evaluation of new energy generation in Jiangsu Province. First of all, based on the construction principle of performance evaluation index system of new energy generation, this paper selects technology efficiency, safety, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, electricity cost, carbon dioxide emission reduction from four aspects of technology, economy, environment and society. Land use, the number of jobs provided and the average annual power of the Internet are 9 secondary indicators, and qualitative analysis is made on the relationship between the index preferences. Then, considering the uncertainty of index value and the correlation between index preference, the IVGAI operator is defined by integrating interval number operation and fuzzy measure theory, and the related properties of the operator are studied. A multi-index evaluation model based on IVTI method is constructed based on IVGAI operator and II distance function. The case study shows that the multi-index evaluation model based on IVTI method is more reasonable, realistic and universal. Finally, the performance of new energy generation in Jiangsu Province is studied based on constant weight and variable weight IVTI methods. The evaluation results of constant weight IVTI method show that the most suitable for development in Jiangsu Province is nuclear power 0.781g, followed by biomass power generation 0.262) and wind power 0.227, and photovoltaic power 0.173. From the point of view of variable weight, it is found that the setting of index weight has a great influence on the final evaluation results of new energy generation performance, and Jiangsu should better combine local technology and economy in the investment decision of new energy and power generation. According to the actual situation of environment and society, and considering the opinions of all stakeholders, the most favorable index preference scheme is selected.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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