基于动态调整模型的制造业上市公司资本结构研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 11:37

本文选题：制造业 + 资本结构　；参考：《中原工学院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：论文不同于以往文献中将全部上市公司作为研究对象的做法，，而是选取制造业这一具体行业进行研究。论文从资本结构的概念和相关理论入手，分析了我国制造业上市公司资本结构的特征，并在此基础上提出了部分影响我国制造业企业资本结构的因素及影响调整速度的因素，进而构建资本结构动态调整模型并对模型进行估计。论文对资本结构特征的研究发现，我国制造业上市公司的资本结构存在以下特征：一是内部融资所占比重低于外部融资，且债务融资优先于股权融资；二是资产负债率较之发达国家相比，偏低，但有缓慢上升的趋势；三是负债结构中流动负债占比过高，负债结构不合理。而对于实证部分，论文则选取了332家制造业上市公司2007-2011年的数据，利用Gauss-Seidel迭代、非线性最小二乘法（Nonlinear LeastSquare）对模型进行了估计。估计结果显示，资本结构与企业规模、成长性及资产有形性等因素正相关，而与盈利能力、资产流动性、非债务税盾、收益波动性以及实际贷款利率、通货膨胀率两个宏观经济因素负相关；调整速度则与所选的三个解释变量（偏离最优资本结构的程度、企业规模、成长性）显著正相关；调整速度在0.3-0.35左右。同时，论文还对动态模型和静态模型作了比较，两个模型的估计结果显示，动态模型较之静态模型有更好的解释力，而且动态模型还能提供企业随时间变化的调整速度。最后，论文在理论与实证分析的基础上，从外部宏观环境和企业自身发展两个方面提出了部分政策建议。论文弥补了以往静态模型在研究资本结构方面的不足，从行业层面分析制造业企业资本结构的影响因素、调整速度及调整速度的影响因素，其结果更有针对性且更具指导意义。
[Abstract]:The paper is different from the previous literature that all listed companies are regarded as the research object, but choose the manufacturing industry as the specific industry to study. Starting with the concept and related theories of capital structure, this paper analyzes the characteristics of capital structure of listed manufacturing companies in China, and puts forward some factors that affect the capital structure of manufacturing enterprises and the factors affecting the adjustment speed. Then the dynamic adjustment model of capital structure is constructed and the model is estimated. The capital structure of listed manufacturing companies in China has the following characteristics: first, the proportion of internal financing is lower than that of external financing, and debt financing takes precedence over equity financing; Second, the ratio of assets to liabilities is lower than that of developed countries, but it has a tendency of rising slowly; third, the proportion of current liabilities in debt structure is too high, and the structure of liabilities is unreasonable. In the empirical part, the data of 332 listed manufacturing companies from 2007 to 2011 are selected, and the model is estimated by using Gauss-Seidel iteration and nonlinear least square method. The results show that the capital structure is positively related to the size of the firm, growth and physical properties of assets, but to profitability, asset liquidity, non-debt tax shields, volatility of returns, and real interest rates on loans. The rate of adjustment is positively correlated with the three explanatory variables (the degree of deviation from the optimal capital structure, the size of the firm, and the growth), and the adjustment rate is about 0.3-0.35. At the same time, the paper also compares the dynamic model with the static model. The estimation results of the two models show that the dynamic model has better explanatory power than the static model, and the dynamic model can also provide the adjustment speed of the enterprise over time. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations from the external macro environment and the development of enterprises themselves. The paper makes up for the deficiency of the static model in the study of capital structure, analyzes the influencing factors of the capital structure, the adjustment speed and the adjustment speed of the manufacturing enterprises from the industry level. The results are more targeted and more instructive.
【学位授予单位】：中原工学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.4

【参考文献】