基于灰色关联度与神经网络的我国铁矿石需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 12:17

本文选题：铁矿石 + 灰色关联理论　；参考：《武汉科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：铁矿产资源是世界上发现非常早，用途非常广泛，用量非常多的一种矿产资源，铁矿产资源的用量在人类使用的金属矿产资源中占95%以上。铁矿石作为一种重要的矿产资源，主要用于冶炼生钢和铁，还可用于合成氨的催化剂，天然颜料、饲料添加剂和名贵药石。作为铁矿石最终产品的钢铁是国民经济发展的基础性资源，，广泛应用于国民经济各个部门，是人们使用最广、用途最多的不可或缺的材料。人们常把一个国家钢材的产量、品种、质量、消费量作为衡量一个国家工业和科技发展水平的重要指标。铁矿石资源在人类社会发展中具有难以替代的重要作用，如何保障铁矿石资源的安全供给以保障经济发展的稳定，是一个急需思考和解决的问题。本文主要研究我国未来十年的铁矿石资源需求量，以灰色关联理论、BP神经网络理论，需求弹性系数理论为主要的理论支撑，在查阅了大量的国内外有关铁矿产资源需求预测与安全保障措施文献的基础上进行深入的分析。界定了矿产资源安全的概念，分析了我国铁矿石资源的分布和特点，研究了我国铁矿石的开发利用状况和我国矿产资源产业存在的问题，介绍了铁矿石需求量预测的一些基本理论方法。利用灰色关联理论对我国的铁矿石资源需求影响因素进行了分析，通过分析得到城市化率是影响我国铁矿石资源需求的最主要的因素。利用BP神经网络法和需求弹性系数法对我国未来十年的铁矿需求量进行了预测，通过预测分析得到我国铁矿石需求量与产量之间存在严重的缺口。为了解决我国铁矿产资源供需之间的缺口，保障我国铁矿产资源安全，从国内铁矿资源开发利用、全球铁矿资源竞争战略、国际铁矿石定价权竞争战略、海外铁矿石投资风险管理战略四个方面提出了相应的解决办法和战略措施。
[Abstract]:Iron mineral resource is a kind of mineral resource which was discovered very early in the world and is widely used. The amount of iron mineral resources accounts for more than 95% of the metal mineral resources used by human beings. As an important mineral resource, iron ore is mainly used to smelt raw steel and iron, and can also be used as catalyst for ammonia synthesis, natural pigment, feed additive and precious stone. Iron and steel, as the final product of iron ore, is the basic resource for the development of the national economy. It is widely used in all sectors of the national economy and is the most widely used and used indispensable material. The output, variety, quality and consumption of steel in a country are often regarded as an important index to measure the development level of industry and science and technology in a country. Iron ore resources play an important role in the development of human society. How to ensure the safe supply of iron ore resources to ensure the stability of economic development is an urgent problem to be considered and solved. This paper mainly studies the demand for iron ore resources in the next ten years in China. The main theoretical support is grey correlation theory and BP neural network theory, and demand elasticity coefficient theory as the main theoretical support. On the basis of consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literatures on iron mineral resources demand prediction and safety measures, this paper makes a deep analysis. This paper defines the concept of mineral resources safety, analyzes the distribution and characteristics of iron ore resources in China, studies the development and utilization of iron ore in China and the problems existing in the mineral resources industry in China. Some basic theories and methods of iron ore demand prediction are introduced. The influence factors of iron ore resource demand in China are analyzed by using grey relation theory. It is concluded that the urbanization rate is the most important factor affecting the iron ore resource demand in China. BP neural network method and demand elasticity coefficient method are used to forecast the iron ore demand in China in the next ten years. The serious gap between the iron ore demand and the output in China is obtained by forecasting and analyzing. In order to solve the gap between supply and demand of iron mineral resources in China and ensure the safety of iron mineral resources in China, the development and utilization of iron ore resources in China, the competition strategy of iron ore resources in the world and the competitive strategy of international iron ore pricing power are discussed. Four aspects of overseas iron ore investment risk management strategy are put forward the corresponding solutions and strategic measures.
【学位授予单位】：武汉科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.1;TP18

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