我国天然气供需预测研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 00:12

本文选题：天然气 + 供给　；参考：《中国石油大学（华东）》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年，随着产业结构的不断调整、城市化进程的快速推进以及人们使用清洁能源意愿的日益增强，我国天然气需求量迅速增长。然而，由于我国天然气产业发展起步较晚，相应的技术理论体系和法律法规还不健全，当前我国天然气产业发展中还存在诸如生产基地与消费中心逆向分布突出、稀缺优质资源缺乏有利价格保障、天然气加工和利用市场缺乏有效衔接机制、天然气对外依存度持续增加、市场用气季节性不均衡以及市场发展地域不均衡等问题。面对日益突出的供需矛盾以及影响产业发展的种种弊端，为保证我国天然气产业健康有序发展、保障国家能源安全，需要准确地呈现出我国天然气供给和需求市场现状格局，进一步分析相关数据选取合适的预测模型对我国天然气供给和需求进行科学的预测，在科学预测的基础上准确评估我国天然气供需缺口，继而结合相关影响因素制定和实施未来我国天然气产业发展战略。从供需预测的结果来看，随着时间的推移，我国天然气供求缺口会越来越大。未来一段时间，我国天然气产业发展的总体思路应以保证国内需求和保障国家能源安全为目标，不断加大勘探开发投入，提高资源保障程度；积极推进管网建设，不断完善管网布局；以市场为导向，，逐步完善天然气定价机制；建立健全制度法规，促进产业协调发展；加强国际合作，拓展多元化供气渠道；增加资源战略储备，抵御能源危机。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous adjustment of industrial structure, the rapid progress of urbanization and the increasing willingness of people to use clean energy, the demand for natural gas in China has increased rapidly. However, due to the late development of the natural gas industry in China, the corresponding technical theory system and laws and regulations are not perfect. At present, in the development of natural gas industry in our country, such as the reverse distribution of production bases and consumption centers are still prominent. The scarcity and high quality resources lack favorable price guarantee, the natural gas processing and utilization market lacks the effective link mechanism, the natural gas external dependence degree increases continuously, the market uses the gas seasonally unevenly and the market development region is not balanced and so on. In the face of the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand and the malpractices affecting the development of the industry, in order to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the natural gas industry in China and ensure the national energy security, it is necessary to accurately present the present situation of the natural gas supply and demand market in China. Further analysis the relevant data to select the appropriate forecasting model to forecast the natural gas supply and demand of our country scientifically, on the basis of the scientific forecast, accurately evaluate the gap between supply and demand of natural gas in our country. Then combined with the relevant factors to formulate and implement the future development strategy of natural gas industry in China. According to the forecast results of supply and demand, the gap between supply and demand of natural gas in China will be bigger and bigger with the passage of time. For some time in the future, the overall idea of the development of natural gas industry in China should be aimed at ensuring domestic demand and ensuring national energy security, continuously increasing the investment in exploration and development, improving the degree of resource guarantee, and actively promoting the construction of pipe networks. Constantly improve the distribution of pipeline network; take the market as the guide, gradually perfect the natural gas pricing mechanism; establish and perfect the system and regulations to promote the coordinated development of the industry; strengthen international cooperation, expand diversified gas supply channels; increase the strategic reserve of resources, Resist the energy crisis.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.22

【参考文献】