2013年国际天然气市场供需形势及价格走势分析与展望

发布时间：2018-06-22 09:29

本文选题：天然气 + 市场　；参考：《天然气工业》2014年07期

【摘要】：2013年,世界天然气市场运行总体平稳,产量和消费量均稳定增长,供需基本平衡。定量、定性分析北美、欧洲、亚太地区三大天然气市场的供需形势和价格趋势后认为:1供需方面,北美天然气消费量小幅增长,供应相对宽松;欧洲天然气消费在2010年之后首次企稳,供需基本平衡;亚太地区天然气消费量增速减缓,新兴经济体仍是主要增长动力;全球LNG液化能力和接收能力同时增加,贸易量小幅反弹。2价格方面,北美和欧洲的天然气2013年平均价格均有较大幅度增长,亚洲地区年均价格小幅下降,三地市场价格差异明显缩小;但亚洲LNG进口价格却长期高于其他地区,承担着不合理的亚洲"溢价"。据此做出展望:预计2014年世界天然气供需将保持平稳增长,但地区市场差异仍将存在;预计北美天然气消费量将与2013年持平,供应由宽松趋于平衡,价格大幅上涨;受经济疲软、气温平稳等因素的综合影响,欧洲气价将同比下降;在国际油价与2013年水平基本持平或略有下降的情况下,预计2014年亚洲LNG进口价格将稳中有降;上述三大天然气市场价格差异有望进一步缩小。
[Abstract]:In 2013, the world natural gas market was stable, production and consumption increased steadily, and supply and demand were basically balanced. Quantitative, qualitative analysis of the supply and demand situation and price trend of the three major natural gas markets in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region shows that the consumption of natural gas in North America increases slightly and the supply is relatively loose. Natural gas consumption in Europe stabilized for the first time after 2010, with supply and demand basically balanced; the growth rate of natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region slowed, with emerging economies still the main engine of growth; and the global LNG liquefaction capacity and reception capacity increased simultaneously. The average price of natural gas in North America and Europe increased by a large margin in 2013, while the average annual price in Asia decreased slightly, and the price difference between the three markets narrowed obviously. But Asian LNG import price is higher than other regions for a long time, bear unreasonable Asian "premium". Based on this outlook: world natural gas supply and demand is expected to maintain a steady growth in 2014, but regional market differences will remain; North American natural gas consumption is expected to remain unchanged from 2013, supply from easy tend to balance, prices have risen sharply; Under the influence of weak economy, stable temperature and other factors, the gas price in Europe will drop from the same period last year. When the international oil price is basically flat or slightly lower than in 2013, the Asian LNG import price is expected to drop steadily in 2014. These three major natural gas market price gap is expected to further narrow.
【作者单位】：中国石油集团经济技术研究院;
【分类号】：F416.22;F764.1

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