汇率波动对我国制造业的影响及对策研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 12:51

本文选题：制造业 + 汇率波动　；参考：《山西财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放30年来，我国制造业取得了举世瞩目的成就，制造业的出口规模迅速扩大，经常项目顺差不断增加。与此同时，近年来，迫于西方发达国家的压力，2005年中国人民银行实行了更加灵活的汇率制度，人民币开始进入快速升值的通道，截至2012年4月人民币兑美元已经累计升值30%左右。然而，我国制造业的出口产品中绝大多数仍是加工程度浅、高耗能及附加值低的劳动密集型产品，如纺织品、服装及粗钢等，在人民币持续升值的国际大环境下，生产这些初级产品的企业对汇率变动的敏感度不断增强，汇率已经成为影响我国出口企业生存的重要因素。因此，本文针对近年来人民币升值对我国制造业造成的巨大冲击，首先选择三条典型的人民币汇率传导路径，即对外贸易传导路径、生产成本传导路径和利率传导路径；然后，从理论层面分析人民币汇率通过上述三条典型路径对我国制造业的影响，理论分析表明：人民币升值削弱了我国制造业出口产品的国际竞争力，导致制造业出口减少，表现为负面效应，，而人民币升值降低了制造业的生产和资本成本，表现为正面效应，但是，整体上负面效应大于正面效应，即人民币升值对我国制造业的整体影响表现为负面效应；再从实证角度分析人民币汇率的传导效应，验证理论分析的结论，实证研究表明：人民币升值通过对外贸易路径对我国制造业形成了负冲击，与理论分析的结论一致，而原材料价格和利率对人民币汇率的波动不敏感，即人民升值不会改变原材料价格和利率，因此，实证分析也说明人民币升值对我国制造业形成了负冲击；最后，在借鉴国际经验的基础上，根据我国制造业的发展现状，提供规避汇率风险的策略及相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:During the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's manufacturing industry has made remarkable achievements. The export scale of manufacturing industry has expanded rapidly, and the current account surplus has been increasing. At the same time, in recent years, under pressure from Western developed countries, the people's Bank of China implemented a more flexible exchange rate system in 2005, and the renminbi began to enter the channel of rapid appreciation. As of April 2012, the RMB has appreciated about 30% against the dollar. However, the vast majority of our manufacturing exports are still labor-intensive products with a low degree of processing, high energy consumption and low added value, such as textiles, clothing and rough steel. In the international environment where the RMB continues to appreciate, The enterprises that produce these primary products are more sensitive to the change of exchange rate and the exchange rate has become an important factor affecting the survival of Chinese export enterprises. Therefore, in view of the huge impact of RMB appreciation on China's manufacturing industry in recent years, this paper first chooses three typical RMB exchange rate transmission paths, namely, foreign trade transmission path, production cost transmission path and interest rate transmission path. This paper theoretically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate on Chinese manufacturing industry through the above three typical paths. The theoretical analysis shows that the appreciation of RMB weakens the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing exports and leads to a decrease in manufacturing exports. The appreciation of RMB reduces the production and capital cost of manufacturing industry and shows positive effect, but the overall negative effect is greater than the positive effect. That is, the overall impact of RMB appreciation on China's manufacturing industry is negative, and then from the perspective of empirical analysis of the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate, verify the conclusion of theoretical analysis, The empirical study shows that RMB appreciation has a negative impact on China's manufacturing industry through foreign trade path, which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical analysis, while the price of raw materials and interest rate are not sensitive to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. That is, the appreciation of the people will not change the prices and interest rates of raw materials. Therefore, the empirical analysis also shows that the appreciation of the RMB has a negative impact on the manufacturing industry in China. Finally, on the basis of drawing lessons from international experience, according to the current situation of the development of the manufacturing industry in China, Provide strategies to avoid exchange rate risk and related policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F424;F832.6

【相似文献】