未来10年中国矿山铜供应能力分析

发布时间：2018-07-25 21:04

【摘要】：中国铜资源稀缺且分布相对集中。建国以来,矿山铜产量增长迅速,但远不能满足下游行业需求;同时,我国矿山铜产业布局和精炼铜产业布局并不匹配,一些省区需大量外购铜精矿。本文基于资源、采选技术、产业政策等方面的假设条件,考虑近10年实际产量变化趋势、保有资源储量的利用程度、主产区和资源集中区资源储量与产量的匹配度、资源禀赋条件、未来矿产资源需求量等因素对未来我国矿山铜的年供应能力进行预测。分析结果表明,西藏矿山铜供应能力增长潜力巨大,是未来我国铜矿资源供应的一个主要增长点;预计到2020年,我国矿山铜产量仍将继续保持上升趋势;此后,矿山铜产能增长受限,将在一段时期内保持稳定。
[Abstract]:China's copper resources are scarce and relatively concentrated. Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, copper production in mines has increased rapidly, but it is far from meeting the demand of downstream industries. At the same time, the layout of mine copper industry and refined copper industry in China is not matched, and some provinces and regions need to purchase a large amount of copper concentrate from abroad. Based on the assumptions of resources, selection techniques, industrial policies, this paper takes into account the trend of actual production changes in the past 10 years, the degree of utilization of retained reserves, and the matching degree between reserves and production in major production areas and resource concentration areas. The annual supply capacity of mine copper in China is forecasted by the factors of resource endowment and mineral resource demand in the future. The results show that the growth potential of copper supply capacity in mines in Tibet is huge, and it is a major growth point of copper resources supply in China in the future. It is expected that the copper production of mines in China will continue to increase by 2020; thereafter, Mine copper production capacity growth is limited, will remain stable for a period of time.
【作者单位】：中南大学有色金属成矿预测教育部重点实验室;中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院;中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所;
【基金】：中国地质调查局地质调查工作项目“我国矿业形势动态跟踪及竞争力研究”资助(编号:1212011120347);中国地质调查局地质调查工作项目“中国战略性矿产安全评价与支持系统建设”资助(编号:12120114052901)
【分类号】：F426.32

【参考文献】