智能电网危险源评价方法的研究

发布时间：2018-07-29 12:29

【摘要】：随着经济社会的发展,人类活动对环境产生了巨大的影响,能源短缺、环境污染和气候恶化已成为困扰全球的严重问题。加之电力市场化的进程不断深入,用户对电能可靠性和质量的要求也在不断提升。电力行业面临前所未有的挑战和机遇,建设更加安全、可靠、环保、经济的电力系统已经成为全球电力行业的共同目标。智能电网也由此应运而生。作为21世纪人类最伟大的能源技术变革,智能电网已成为当今各国创新研究的热点和焦点。智能电网是现代科学技术、先进管理理念与传统电网的完美结合,是解决能源安全与环境问题、应对全球气候变化、实现经济社会可持续发展的必然选择。电网智能化的发展离不开信息网络、自动化、电力系统的技术进步,同时智能电网建设也必将促进我国科学技术创新,带动新能源、新材料、新服务等战略性新兴产业的发展。随着智能电网的建设进入实质性阶段,其运行中的安全问题受到越来越广泛的重视。本文在充分的理论研究的基础上,针对智能电网运行中可能存在的危险源,构建了智能电网危险源评价指标体系。提出了危险度的概念及度量方法,并以可信性理论为基础,建立了可信性熵权系数评价模型,进而结合实际情况,分别从发生频率与影响程度两方面对我国智能电网危险源进行了分析,从而在相应的置信区间下,测算智能电网的危险程度。最后,本文通过算例分析,验证了可信性熵权系数评价方法的科学性与可行性,并对智能电网危险源的监控提出初步建议,为智能电网的安全管理提供理论与方法支持。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, human activities have a great impact on the environment. Energy shortage, environmental pollution and climate deterioration have become a serious problem in the world. In addition, the process of electricity marketization continues to deepen, and the requirements of power reliability and quality are also increasing. The electric power industry is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities. Building a more secure, reliable, environmentally friendly and economical power system has become the common goal of the global power industry. The smart grid also arises at the historic moment. As the greatest energy technology revolution in the 21st century, smart grid has become the hot spot and focus of innovation research in various countries. Smart grid is a perfect combination of modern science and technology, advanced management concept and traditional power grid. It is the inevitable choice to solve the problems of energy security and environment, to deal with global climate change and to realize the sustainable development of economy and society. The development of power grid intelligence is inseparable from the development of information network, automation and power system technology. At the same time, the construction of smart grid will promote the innovation of science and technology in our country, and promote the development of new strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, new service and so on. With the construction of smart grid entering the substantive stage, the security problem in its operation has been paid more and more attention. On the basis of sufficient theoretical research, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of smart grid hazard sources, which may exist in the operation of smart grid. This paper puts forward the concept of risk degree and its measurement method, and based on the credibility theory, establishes the evaluation model of credibility entropy weight coefficient, and then combines with the actual situation. In this paper, the risk sources of smart grid in China are analyzed from two aspects of occurrence frequency and influence degree, and the dangerous degree of smart grid is calculated under the corresponding confidence interval. Finally, through the example analysis, this paper verifies the reliability entropy weight coefficient evaluation method is scientific and feasible, and puts forward the preliminary suggestion to the smart grid dangerous source monitoring, provides the theory and the method support for the smart grid security management.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;TM76

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