基于LEAP模型的电动汽车发展对广州能源环境影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-31 07:42

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,随着全球能源危机的不断加深,石油资源的日趋枯竭以及大气污染、全球气温上升的危害加剧,各国政府都普遍意识到大力推进交通发展模式转变,积极发展以电动汽车为代表的新能源汽车,将会有效缓解能源危机,促进人与自然和谐发展。本文首先分析了电动汽车在国内外的发展情况、目前世界各国对电动汽车的推广情况,研究了纯电动、燃料电池、混合动力和插入式混合动力四种电动汽车的特点和各种汽车发展模式。随后对广州近年来交通发展状况、能耗情况和环境排放情况进行了研究,广州作为中国第三大城市,交通运输业发达,公路交通每年都在增长,交通能源需求和环境排放压力逐渐增大,对新能源汽车的需求迫切。本文在此背景下,通过模型对比,建立了基于自下而上方法选择LEAP模型和情景分析法对广州电动汽车发展对能源和环境的影响进行研究。以2010年为基准年,建立了广州(2010-2030)未来电动车-能源-环境模型,根据经济社会发展和政策展望设定了基准情景、政策情景和低碳情景。再通过灰色系统预测等方法预测广州人口、GDP、城市交通周转量和汽车发展数量,计算能源强度和排放强度等模型参数。将交通工具划分为公交车、出租车、集团用车和小汽车四个部门,燃料类型主要考虑柴油、汽油、天然气、电力,汽车污染物主要考虑二氧化碳、一氧化碳、氮氧化合物和PM10。并利用LEAP模型计算和分析广州2010年-2030年不同情景下的能源需求与环境排放。模型结果表明,相对于基础情景,所设计的各个政策发展情景对能源需求和环境排放均有不同程度的降低,低碳情景是综合了多种政策情景的优化模型,在各种污染物的排放方面都有很好地降低效果。最后,本文在上述研究基础上,从节能减排的角度对广州电动汽车发展进行思考,希望能为广州的电动汽车发展提供一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the deepening of the global energy crisis, the depletion of petroleum resources and air pollution, and the increasing harm of global temperature, governments all over the world are generally aware of vigorously promoting the transformation of traffic development model. The positive development of new energy vehicles, represented by electric vehicles, will effectively alleviate the energy crisis and promote the harmonious development of man and nature. This paper first analyzes the development of electric vehicles at home and abroad, the current countries in the world on the promotion of electric vehicles, the study of pure electric, fuel cells, Hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle features and a variety of vehicle development patterns. Subsequently, the traffic development, energy consumption and environmental emissions in Guangzhou in recent years were studied. Guangzhou, as the third largest city in China, has developed transportation and road traffic is increasing every year. Traffic energy demand and environmental emission pressure gradually increase, the demand for new energy vehicles is urgent. In this context, based on the bottom-up method of selecting LEAP model and scenario analysis method, this paper studies the impact of the development of Guangzhou electric vehicle on energy and environment through model comparison. Taking 2010 as the base year, Guangzhou (2010-2030) future electric vehicle-energy-environment model was established, and the benchmark scenario, policy scenario and low carbon scenario were set up according to the economic and social development and policy outlook. Then the GDPs of Guangzhou population, the amount of urban traffic turnover and the number of cars are predicted by grey system prediction, and the model parameters such as energy intensity and emission intensity are calculated. The main fuel types are diesel, gasoline, natural gas, electricity, automobile pollutants, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and PM10. LEAP model is used to calculate and analyze the energy demand and environmental emissions in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2030. The results show that, compared with the basic scenario, each policy development scenario designed has different degrees of reduction in energy demand and environmental emissions, and the low-carbon scenario is an optimized model that integrates many policy scenarios. It has a good effect in reducing the discharge of all kinds of pollutants. Finally, based on the above research, this paper thinks about the development of Guangzhou electric vehicle from the perspective of energy saving and emission reduction, hoping to provide some reference value for the development of Guangzhou electric vehicle.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F426.471;F424.1

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