基于离散选择模型的家庭乘用车消费者选择行为研究
发布时间：2018-08-07 11:29
【摘要】：能源环境问题已经成为21世纪全球范围内的重要议题之一。汽车产业不仅在经济方面已经成为影响我国经济发展的重要产业之一,也是在能源环境方面与之密切相关的产业。自我国加入WTO以来,汽车产业进入了空前高速发展阶段。到2010年,我国汽车新车市场的销售规模已经超过美国历史最高水平；截止2011年6月,我国汽车保有量超过日本,成为世界第二大汽车保有国。而进入2012年以来,我国汽车的居民普及率已经达到20%,真正进入了“汽车社会”时代。随着汽车社会的到来,汽车除了为人们的出行带来了极大方便,逐步改变了社会大众的出行习惯,也带来了能源消费的快速增长、城市空气污染日趋严重、城市交通堵塞状况加剧等问题,尤其是汽车尾气排放导致的城市空气污染,直接影响了居民健康,成为了严重的社会问题。近十年来,我国政府认识到问题的严重性,借鉴发达国家通过政策经济手段缓解这些问题的经验,通过一系列法律法规、技术规和税收财政政策制定等手段,促进汽车节能减排技术的发展,并引导消费者选择和市场朝着节能减排的目标发展。 对于汽车市场的研究,本文选择了消费者购车选择行为的视角。国内外对于消费者行为的研究有着较长的历史和大量详实的文献,形成一套较为完整的理论研究体系。通过对理论和应用的梳理,最终决定选择构建离散选择模型的计量方法进行微观层面消费者行为选择的分析。在离散选择模型方面,国外学者很早已经开始运用嵌套Logit模型进行了消费者行为及市场决策方面的研究,尤其在交通运输及汽车产业领域以及有较多成果,而国内采用这种方法的研究起步较晚,但最早是将其运用于交通运输方面的研究。在这样的研究背景下,本文构建了三层嵌套Logit模型,对目前的汽车产业相关政策的实施效果进行分析,并通过调整政策相关参数,包括车辆购置税、燃油附加税等税率,设定了一系列政策模拟情景,进一步分析政策及其改进对消费者购车选择乃至汽车销售量的影响。 本文最终得出以下结论和建议：1、车辆购置税改进方面,对于大中型车的增税或小微型车的减税政策都能达到一定效果,而要达到削减燃油消费量的目标,还需要针对高油耗车的增税或低油耗车的减税政策,并且奖罚并行的政策会更加有效；2、目前燃油消费税增加在鼓励居民购买低油耗车型方面的影响相对较弱,必须设定较高的燃油消费税税率才能达到较大的燃油消费量削减效果,而这一调整会对GDP产生一定的负面效应；3、在促进消费者选择低油耗车方面,绿色税制非常有效,比如补贴小排量低油耗环保车等。各项政策的调整互相受到制约,因此政策的调整实施之前,需要明确政策目标,权衡政策综合成本。
[Abstract]:Energy and environmental problems have become one of the most important issues in the world in the 21 st century. Automobile industry not only has become one of the important industries that affect the economic development of our country, but also is closely related to it in the aspect of energy and environment. Since China's entry into WTO, the automobile industry has entered an unprecedented stage of rapid development. By 2010, the sales scale of the new car market in China has exceeded the highest level in the history of the United States. As of June 2011, the number of cars in our country has surpassed that of Japan and become the second largest automobile country in the world. Since 2012, the populace rate of automobile in our country has reached 20%, which has entered the era of "automobile society". With the arrival of the automobile society, the automobile not only brings great convenience for people to travel, gradually changes the travel habits of the public, but also brings the rapid growth of energy consumption, and the urban air pollution becomes more and more serious. Urban traffic congestion and other problems, especially the urban air pollution caused by automobile exhaust emissions, directly affect the health of residents and become a serious social problem. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has recognized the seriousness of the problems, learned from the experience of developed countries in alleviating these problems through policy and economic means, and adopted a series of laws and regulations, technical regulations, and tax and fiscal policy formulation, etc. Promote the development of automotive energy saving and emission reduction technology, and guide consumers to choose and market towards the goal of energy saving and emission reduction. For the study of the automobile market, this paper chooses the perspective of consumer car purchase behavior. The study of consumer behavior at home and abroad has a long history and a large number of detailed literature, forming a relatively complete theoretical research system. Through combing the theory and application, it is decided to choose the measurement method of constructing discrete choice model to analyze consumer behavior choice at the micro level. In the aspect of discrete choice model, foreign scholars have used nested Logit model to study consumer behavior and market decision, especially in the field of transportation and automobile industry. However, the research on this method started late in China, but it was first applied to the research of transportation. In this research background, this paper constructs a three-layer nested Logit model, analyzes the effect of the current automobile industry related policies, and adjusts the relevant policy parameters, including vehicle purchase tax, fuel surtax and other tax rates. A series of policy simulation scenarios are set to further analyze the impact of the policy and its improvement on the choice of car purchase and even the sales volume of cars. This paper finally draws the following conclusions and suggestions: in the aspect of improving the vehicle purchase tax, the tax increases for large and medium-sized vehicles or the tax reduction policies for small and medium-sized vehicles can achieve certain effects, and the goal of reducing fuel consumption should be achieved. There is also a need for tax increases for high-fuel efficient vehicles or tax cuts for low-fuel consumption vehicles, and incentives and penalties will be more effective. At present, the impact of fuel consumption tax increases on encouraging residents to buy low-fuel vehicles is relatively weak. A higher fuel consumption tax rate must be set in order to achieve a greater reduction in fuel consumption, and this adjustment will have a certain negative effect on GDP. The green tax system is very effective in promoting consumers to choose low fuel consumption cars. For example, subsidies small emission low fuel consumption environmental protection cars and so on. The adjustment of each policy is restricted to each other, so it is necessary to define the policy objective and weigh the policy comprehensive cost before the policy adjustment is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.471;F713.55;F224
本文编号：2169878
[Abstract]:Energy and environmental problems have become one of the most important issues in the world in the 21 st century. Automobile industry not only has become one of the important industries that affect the economic development of our country, but also is closely related to it in the aspect of energy and environment. Since China's entry into WTO, the automobile industry has entered an unprecedented stage of rapid development. By 2010, the sales scale of the new car market in China has exceeded the highest level in the history of the United States. As of June 2011, the number of cars in our country has surpassed that of Japan and become the second largest automobile country in the world. Since 2012, the populace rate of automobile in our country has reached 20%, which has entered the era of "automobile society". With the arrival of the automobile society, the automobile not only brings great convenience for people to travel, gradually changes the travel habits of the public, but also brings the rapid growth of energy consumption, and the urban air pollution becomes more and more serious. Urban traffic congestion and other problems, especially the urban air pollution caused by automobile exhaust emissions, directly affect the health of residents and become a serious social problem. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has recognized the seriousness of the problems, learned from the experience of developed countries in alleviating these problems through policy and economic means, and adopted a series of laws and regulations, technical regulations, and tax and fiscal policy formulation, etc. Promote the development of automotive energy saving and emission reduction technology, and guide consumers to choose and market towards the goal of energy saving and emission reduction. For the study of the automobile market, this paper chooses the perspective of consumer car purchase behavior. The study of consumer behavior at home and abroad has a long history and a large number of detailed literature, forming a relatively complete theoretical research system. Through combing the theory and application, it is decided to choose the measurement method of constructing discrete choice model to analyze consumer behavior choice at the micro level. In the aspect of discrete choice model, foreign scholars have used nested Logit model to study consumer behavior and market decision, especially in the field of transportation and automobile industry. However, the research on this method started late in China, but it was first applied to the research of transportation. In this research background, this paper constructs a three-layer nested Logit model, analyzes the effect of the current automobile industry related policies, and adjusts the relevant policy parameters, including vehicle purchase tax, fuel surtax and other tax rates. A series of policy simulation scenarios are set to further analyze the impact of the policy and its improvement on the choice of car purchase and even the sales volume of cars. This paper finally draws the following conclusions and suggestions: in the aspect of improving the vehicle purchase tax, the tax increases for large and medium-sized vehicles or the tax reduction policies for small and medium-sized vehicles can achieve certain effects, and the goal of reducing fuel consumption should be achieved. There is also a need for tax increases for high-fuel efficient vehicles or tax cuts for low-fuel consumption vehicles, and incentives and penalties will be more effective. At present, the impact of fuel consumption tax increases on encouraging residents to buy low-fuel vehicles is relatively weak. A higher fuel consumption tax rate must be set in order to achieve a greater reduction in fuel consumption, and this adjustment will have a certain negative effect on GDP. The green tax system is very effective in promoting consumers to choose low fuel consumption cars. For example, subsidies small emission low fuel consumption environmental protection cars and so on. The adjustment of each policy is restricted to each other, so it is necessary to define the policy objective and weigh the policy comprehensive cost before the policy adjustment is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.471;F713.55;F224
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