节能减排约束下浙江

发布时间：2018-09-06 08:08

【摘要】：浙江省能源消费结构以煤炭为主,而且能源95%以上都需要从外省或者国外调入,能源安全和能源消费所带来的环境问题日趋凸显。大力发展核能、太阳能、风能等清洁新能源,改变现有的能源结构,不仅能够缓解能源消耗所带来的环境压力,还可以减轻浙江省能源消耗对外省的依赖和掣肘程度。能源结构优化调整之后减轻了节能、污染物排放和碳排放的压力,但能源成本的上升对经济增长、就业造成冲击。本文通过对能源结构的战略调整,寻找节能减排约束下的浙江省最优能源结构比例,并模拟探究这一调整对浙江省经济、环境的影响分析,平衡浙江省的经济发展与环境保护,从而实现浙江经济与环境协调发展。本文首先通过灰色系统模型预测无约束下的浙江省2015年能源消费结构,得出该消费结构下的节能减排指标只达到浙江省规划目标的72%,结构亟待优化。再构建多目标规划模型求解出浙江省各种节能与减排多重约束下的最优能源结构,结果表明完成节能减排规划下的浙江省2015年最优一次能源消费结构为：煤炭、石油、天然气、一次电力及其他的比重分别为55%、19%、6.79%、19.21%。不同节能减排约束下的浙江省能源结构,其不同的能源成本与减排费用对经济增长、就业等宏观经济变量及环境的影响也有所不同。然后,分别从模型结构(生产活动和要素市场、贸易、经济主体行为与最终需求以及宏观均衡与闭合规则)和数学描述(价格模块、产出和需求模块、贸易模块、机构模块、市场均衡模块、动态递归模块)构建区域动态能源环境可计算一般均衡模型来模拟能源成本上升与减排费用减少对宏观经济及环境的影响。最后,以2010年的数据基础编制的浙江省能源环境SAM利用构建的浙江省能源环境动态CGE模拟能源结构优化结果表明随着节能减排力度的加大,能源结构调整导致的能源成本上升对经济增长、就业、出口、进口等宏观经济要素都呈负面经济效应,而且其影响程度非线性递增；能源结构调整导致的减排费用的减少却有利于宏观经济的增长,其影响程度也呈非线性递增。总体来说,完成节能减排规划目标约束是以牺牲经济增长和人口就业为代价的,而且在进一步减排超标10%的情况下,还在浙江省经济社会发展的容忍限度之内。模拟结果还说明,能源结构的优化调整引起的能源成本上升虽然对宏观经济造成一定的冲击,但是有利于环境的改善。而能源结构优化后减排投入节约转移到生产部门经济产出中新增的污染物与减排部门投入减少导致的污染物排放增加两者叠加构成了减排费用变化的环境冲击,基于环境质量考虑的能源结构调整将会大打折扣,所以要实现经济一环境的协同发展,需要在能源结构优化调整的同时继续加大减排投入。
[Abstract]:The energy consumption structure in Zhejiang Province is dominated by coal, and more than 95% of the energy needs to be transferred from other provinces or abroad. The environmental problems brought by energy security and energy consumption are becoming increasingly prominent. Vigorously developing clean new energy, such as nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy and so on, and changing the existing energy structure, can not only alleviate the environmental pressure brought by energy consumption, but also reduce the dependence and constraint of energy consumption on other provinces in Zhejiang Province. The optimization and adjustment of energy structure reduces the pressure of energy saving, pollutant emission and carbon emission, but the rising energy cost has an impact on economic growth and employment. Through the strategic adjustment of energy structure, this paper seeks the optimal proportion of energy structure in Zhejiang Province under the constraint of energy saving and emission reduction, and simulates and explores the impact of this adjustment on the economy and environment of Zhejiang Province, and balances the economic development and environmental protection of Zhejiang Province. Thus realizing the coordinated development of Zhejiang economy and environment. In this paper, the energy consumption structure of Zhejiang Province in 2015 is forecasted by grey system model, and the energy saving and emission reduction target under this consumption structure can only reach 72of the planning target of Zhejiang province, and the structure needs to be optimized urgently. The multi-objective programming model is constructed to solve the optimal energy structure of Zhejiang province under the multiple constraints of energy saving and emission reduction. The results show that the optimal primary energy consumption structure of Zhejiang Province in 2015 is coal, oil and natural gas. The proportion of electricity and other things is 55 and 6.79, respectively, and 19.21. Under the constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction, different energy cost and emission reduction cost of Zhejiang Province have different effects on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, employment and environment. Then, from the model structure (production activity and factor market, trade, economic agent behavior and final demand, macro equilibrium and closure rules) and mathematical description (price module, output and demand module, trade module, institutional module, respectively), Market equilibrium module, dynamic recursive module) to build regional dynamic energy environment computable general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of energy cost rise and emission reduction cost reduction on macroeconomic and environment. Finally, based on the data of 2010, the energy environment SAM of Zhejiang Province is used to construct the energy environment dynamic CGE simulation energy structure optimization results show that with the increase of energy conservation and emission reduction, The increase of energy cost caused by the adjustment of energy structure has negative economic effects on macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, employment, export, import and so on, and its influence degree is increasing non-linear. The reduction of emission reduction cost caused by energy structure adjustment is beneficial to the growth of macro-economy, and its influence degree is also nonlinear increasing. In general, the restriction of energy saving and emission reduction planning is at the expense of economic growth and employment, and it is also within the tolerance limit of economic and social development in Zhejiang province if the emission reduction is more than 10%. The simulation results also show that the increase of energy cost caused by the optimization and adjustment of energy structure is beneficial to the improvement of the environment although it has a certain impact on the macro economy. The environmental impact of the change of emission reduction cost is caused by the combination of the new pollutants added in the economic output of the production sector and the increase of the pollutant emissions caused by the reduction of the input in the emission reduction sector after the energy structure optimization has been transferred to the economic output of the production sector. The adjustment of energy structure based on environmental quality will be greatly reduced, so in order to realize the coordinated development of economy-environment, it is necessary to continue to increase the input of emission reduction while optimizing the energy structure.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.2;F205

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