稀有矿产资源的战略性评估——基于战略性新兴产业发展的视角

发布时间：2018-09-11 17:07

【摘要】：作为不可再生的资源,稀有矿产在战略性新兴产业中有着广泛而重要的用途。近年来,全球稀有矿产品供求关系趋紧,稀有矿产领域的国际竞争不断升级。在对六大类22种稀有矿产资源进行界定,分析其在战略性新兴产业中应用的基础上,本文采用三因素分析框架,从供应风险、环境影响、供应受限的经济影响三个维度,设计了9项指标,对稀有矿产资源的战略性做出定量评估。结果显示,铂族金属的战略性最高,铯的战略性最低。为进一步提高评估结果的可靠性,本文运用蒙特卡洛模拟进行不确定性分析。模拟结果表明,在考虑了分项指标估算结果的影响之后。本文对22种稀有矿产资源战略性的评估结果依然成立。鉴于稀有矿产资源在战略性新兴产业中日益增强的重要性,应尽快制定实施稀有矿产资源的国家战略,着力提升战略性新兴产业关键原材料保障能力,实现稀有矿产可持续开发利用,维护国家资源安全。
[Abstract]:As a non-renewable resource, rare minerals have a wide range of important applications in strategic emerging industries. In recent years, the supply and demand of rare mineral products in the world have become more and more tight, and the international competition in the field of rare minerals has been escalating. On the basis of defining 22 kinds of rare mineral resources in six categories and analyzing their application in strategic emerging industries, this paper adopts a three-factor analysis framework, which includes three dimensions: supply risk, environmental impact, and economic impact of limited supply. Nine indexes were designed to quantitatively evaluate the strategy of rare mineral resources. The results show that platinum group metal is the most strategic and cesium is the lowest. In order to further improve the reliability of the evaluation results, the Monte Carlo simulation is used to carry out uncertainty analysis. The simulation results show that, after taking into account the impact of the estimated results of the sub-indicators. The results of strategic evaluation of 22 kinds of rare mineral resources are still valid in this paper. In view of the increasing importance of rare mineral resources in strategic emerging industries, it is necessary to formulate a national strategy for the implementation of rare mineral resources as soon as possible and focus on enhancing the ability of key raw materials for strategic emerging industries, To realize the sustainable development and utilization of rare minerals and maintain the security of national resources.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;
【基金】：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“稀有矿产资源的国家战略研究”(批准号SKGJCX2013—04) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“金属矿产资源国际市场价格操纵问题与我国定价权研究”(批准号13&ZD169) 国家自然科学基金青年项目“能源和水资源消耗总量约束下的中国重化工业转型升级的动态CGE模型与政策研究”(批准号71203232)
【分类号】：F416.1;F276.44

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