我国城镇居民直接生活能源消费碳排放空间差异及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-09-19 09:56

【摘要】：能源消费及其引致的碳排放问题已经成为重大的战略课题，传统研究重点关注的是工业上的节能减排，对生活消费的节能减排关注力度不够。而随着经济的发展与人民生活水平的提高，生活用能强度逐年增大，居民生活能源消费碳排放日益成为碳排放的新增长点。对于生活能源消费碳排放的研究既是普通百姓的生计需要，也是我国实施节能减排的重要环节。通过对生活能源碳排放的特征、区域格局以及影响因素分析，能够为国家实施碳减排目标制定更有针对性的政策建议。本文首先分析了我国城镇居民直接生活能源消费特征，在此基础上采用碳排放系数法测算了城镇居民直接生活能源消费碳排放量，，并对碳排放总量变化进行分析。再次，运用空间计量模型和方法，分析了我国城镇居民直接生活能源消费碳排放的空间分布差异和空间相关性。考虑到空间异质性，选择空间地理加权回归模型（GWR）对直接生活能源消费碳排放的影响因素进行回归分析。最后，对本文的研究进行总结，提出相应的政策建议。通过本文的研究可以得出以下结论：①1995-2010年我国城镇居民直接生活能源碳排放总量明显上升，在区域空间分布上，东部地区城镇居民生活能源消费碳排放量最高，中部地区次之，西部地区最低；②对空间自相关模型的检验发现，在省际间城镇居民直接生活能源消费碳排放存在空间自相关，说明空间因素会对城镇居民直接生活能源消费碳排放产生影响；③通过GWR模型回归分析可知，能源消费结构、能源强度、碳排放强度、家庭可支配收入、家庭户数、能源效率六大主要因素不仅对城镇居民直接生活能源消费碳排放具有显著影响，而且在省际间各个影响因素的回归系数不断发生变化，同时不同省域影响因素对直接生活能源消费碳排放的影响程度也不一样。总体上能源消费结构的调整和能源效率的提高在很大程度上抑制了居民直接生活能源消费碳排放。能源强度、碳排放强度、家庭可支配收入、家庭户数在很大程度上促进直接生活能源碳排放。根据以上研究结论，本文提出通过征收碳税，采用税收政策调控能源消费价格，控制各地区能源消费量，降低碳排放总量；优化调整能源消费结构，提高电力、天然气等清洁能源消费比例，降低煤炭消费；加大清洁电力生产投入，限制高煤耗火力发电，降低电力碳排放强度；加大对企业节能减排技术研发的扶持，提高能源效率；加强环保宣传力度，增强居民环保意识，引导居民在日常生活中养成低碳生活理念，降低家庭生活中不必要的碳排放。
[Abstract]:Energy consumption and its carbon emissions have become an important strategic issue. Traditional research focuses on energy saving and emission reduction in industry, but not enough on domestic consumption. With the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standard, the intensity of energy consumption is increasing year by year, and the carbon emission of household energy consumption is becoming a new increasing point of carbon emission. The study of carbon emissions from domestic energy consumption is not only the livelihood needs of ordinary people, but also an important link of energy saving and emission reduction in China. By analyzing the characteristics, regional patterns and influencing factors of carbon emission from domestic energy, we can make more targeted policy recommendations for the implementation of carbon emission reduction targets. In this paper, the characteristics of direct energy consumption of urban residents in China are analyzed. Based on this, the carbon emissions from direct energy consumption of urban residents are measured by carbon emission coefficient method, and the total amount of carbon emissions is analyzed. Thirdly, the spatial distribution difference and spatial correlation of direct energy consumption carbon emissions of urban residents in China are analyzed by using spatial metrological models and methods. Considering the spatial heterogeneity, the spatial geographical weighted regression model (GWR) was selected to analyze the factors affecting carbon emissions from direct energy consumption. Finally, this paper summarizes the research, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations. Through the research of this paper, we can draw the following conclusion: total direct energy carbon emissions of urban residents in China increased obviously from 1995 to 2010. In terms of regional spatial distribution, urban residents in eastern China have the highest carbon emissions from domestic energy consumption. In the central region, the lowest spatial autocorrelation model in the western region shows that there is a spatial autocorrelation between the inter-provincial urban residents' direct energy consumption carbon emissions. Through GWR regression analysis, we can know that energy consumption structure, energy intensity, carbon emission intensity, household disposable income, household households, The six main factors of energy efficiency not only have significant influence on the carbon emissions of urban residents' direct domestic energy consumption, but also change the regression coefficient of each influencing factor among provinces. At the same time, the impact of different provincial factors on direct energy consumption carbon emissions is also different. On the whole, the adjustment of energy consumption structure and the improvement of energy efficiency greatly restrain the direct energy consumption carbon emissions of residents. Energy intensity, carbon emission intensity, household disposable income, household households largely contribute to direct living energy carbon emissions. According to the above conclusions, this paper puts forward that, by levying carbon tax, adopting tax policy to regulate energy consumption price, to control energy consumption in various regions, to reduce total carbon emissions, to optimize energy consumption structure, to improve electricity, The proportion of clean energy consumption, such as natural gas, to reduce coal consumption, to increase investment in clean electricity production, to limit high coal consumption thermal power generation, to reduce carbon emission intensity of electricity, to increase the support for research and development of energy-saving and emission reduction technology in enterprises, and to improve energy efficiency; Strengthen the propaganda of environmental protection, enhance residents' awareness of environmental protection, guide residents to develop the concept of low-carbon living in their daily life, and reduce unnecessary carbon emissions in family life.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X321;F426.2

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