新建风力发电项目成本分析与竞价机制研究
发布时间：2018-10-20 18:12
【摘要】：随着能源与环境问题的突出，风力发电日益受到重视，尤其是它的环境效益和社会效益。但在开放的电力市场中，由于我国风电发电成本偏高，同常规能源相比缺乏竞争力，如果不考虑风电的外部效益，风电根本无法与常规能源的电力项目竞争。针对此种情况，一方面要不断改进生产技术，降低风电实际成本和上网电价，提高产业本身的经济效益。另一方面需要国家针对风电的环境优势推行各种激励政策，并将常规能源电力生产负外部性内部化。近年来由于国家引入了风电特许权机制和清洁发展机制，在风力发电市场内部存在着激烈的竞争，风力发电企业为了在风电特许权项目招标过程中中标，也在相互进行着竞价期权博弈。因此，一个风电报价策略的好坏对风电项目能否中标起到至关重要的作用。 本文首先从社会总成本角度对风电成本进行研究，介绍了风力发电的实际成本构成，建立了实际成本模型，对成本因素进行敏感性分析，给出降低实际成本的途径。还介绍了风力发电外部成本，给出风电环境价值模型，测算出风电的环境价值。其次，研究基于成本效益分析的风力发电项目上网电价，，对风力发电上网电价进行水平测算，以一个风电项目为例，将单位风电成本与风电价格进行财务分析，说明在不考虑风电的外部效益情况下，风电根本无法与常规能源的电力项目竞争。最后，在得到风电上网电价基本盈利水平的基础之上，用博弈论理论制定出一套风力发电CDM项目在招标制下的竞价上网模型，并进行实际案例分析，使得风电企业在电力市场中更加具有竞争力。
[Abstract]:With the outstanding problems of energy and environment, wind power has been paid more and more attention, especially its environmental and social benefits. However, in the open power market, because of the high cost of wind power generation in China, compared with the conventional energy, wind power is not competitive with the conventional energy. If the external benefits of wind power are not considered, wind power can not compete with the conventional energy. In view of this situation, on the one hand, it is necessary to continuously improve the production technology, reduce the actual cost of wind power and increase the economic benefits of the industry itself. On the other hand, it is necessary for the state to carry out various incentive policies in view of the environmental advantages of wind power, and internalize the negative externalities of conventional energy and electricity production. In recent years, due to the introduction of wind power concession mechanism and clean development mechanism, there is fierce competition in the wind power market. Wind power enterprises bid in the bidding process of wind power concession project. They are also competing with each other in option games. Therefore, a wind power bidding strategy plays a crucial role in winning a wind power project. In this paper, the cost of wind power is studied from the point of view of total social cost, the composition of actual cost of wind power generation is introduced, the model of actual cost is established, the sensitivity of cost factor is analyzed, and the way to reduce the actual cost is given. The external cost of wind power generation is also introduced, the environmental value model of wind power is given, and the environmental value of wind power is calculated. Secondly, the paper studies the grid price of wind power generation project based on cost-benefit analysis, calculates the electricity price of wind power generation horizontally, taking a wind power project as an example, carries on the financial analysis of unit wind power cost and wind power price. Without considering the external benefits of wind power, wind power can not compete with conventional energy. Finally, on the basis of getting the basic profit level of wind power grid price, a set of bidding model of wind power CDM project under bidding system is worked out by using game theory, and the actual case analysis is carried out. So that wind power enterprises in the electricity market more competitive.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61
本文编号：2283985
[Abstract]:With the outstanding problems of energy and environment, wind power has been paid more and more attention, especially its environmental and social benefits. However, in the open power market, because of the high cost of wind power generation in China, compared with the conventional energy, wind power is not competitive with the conventional energy. If the external benefits of wind power are not considered, wind power can not compete with the conventional energy. In view of this situation, on the one hand, it is necessary to continuously improve the production technology, reduce the actual cost of wind power and increase the economic benefits of the industry itself. On the other hand, it is necessary for the state to carry out various incentive policies in view of the environmental advantages of wind power, and internalize the negative externalities of conventional energy and electricity production. In recent years, due to the introduction of wind power concession mechanism and clean development mechanism, there is fierce competition in the wind power market. Wind power enterprises bid in the bidding process of wind power concession project. They are also competing with each other in option games. Therefore, a wind power bidding strategy plays a crucial role in winning a wind power project. In this paper, the cost of wind power is studied from the point of view of total social cost, the composition of actual cost of wind power generation is introduced, the model of actual cost is established, the sensitivity of cost factor is analyzed, and the way to reduce the actual cost is given. The external cost of wind power generation is also introduced, the environmental value model of wind power is given, and the environmental value of wind power is calculated. Secondly, the paper studies the grid price of wind power generation project based on cost-benefit analysis, calculates the electricity price of wind power generation horizontally, taking a wind power project as an example, carries on the financial analysis of unit wind power cost and wind power price. Without considering the external benefits of wind power, wind power can not compete with conventional energy. Finally, on the basis of getting the basic profit level of wind power grid price, a set of bidding model of wind power CDM project under bidding system is worked out by using game theory, and the actual case analysis is carried out. So that wind power enterprises in the electricity market more competitive.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61
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