多伦大河口煤炭物流园区建设项目投资风险研究

发布时间：2018-10-31 17:56

【摘要】：近年来,随着内蒙古锡林郭勒盟工业化进程步伐的加快,全盟煤炭资源开发力度也在不断加大。到2010年全盟计划生产煤炭8000万吨,争取达到1亿吨,其中,就地转化2000万吨,其余8000万吨铁路运输60%,公路运输40%。煤炭资源的开发带动了锡盟地区煤炭交易市场的火爆,但这些煤炭交易市场均是自发而成的,缺乏统一布局和规划,且都是在无序状态下运营,给市场管理带来诸多不便,因此投资建设一家综合性的煤炭物流园区是十分必要的。煤炭物流园区作为一项投资大、建设周期长的复杂工程,其在建设运营过程中面临着来自诸多方面的风险,选择正确的方法识别评价这些风险并提出对应的防范措施,直接影响着园区的经营效果。因此本论文研究多伦大河口煤炭物流园区投资风险具有重要的指导意义。本论文以多伦大河口煤炭物流园区建设项目的风险评价为主要的研究内容,首先介绍了物流园区项目风险评价的国内外研究现状和煤炭物流园区建设项目的相关理论基础；然后论文的第三部分介绍了多伦大河口煤炭物流园区与风险评价有关的详细情况,包括该项目的外部条件、市场需求现状及预测；第四部分以风险识别的原则和目的为依据,使用多种方法相结合的方式来对该项目进行风险识别,最终确定出自然风险、政策风险、市场风险、财务风险和管理风险五个一级风险和若干二级风险；第五部分首先根据上部分的结论建立起多伦大河口煤炭物流园区风险评价指标体系,然后选用模糊综合评价方法、层次分析法和专家打分法量化这些风险指标并赋予权重,最后进行项目风险的综合评价,结论为多伦大河口煤炭物流园区项目整体为一般风险,市场风险、财务风险和管理风险相对较大,项目建设是可行的,该部分还提出了每种风险对应的防范措施：本论文的最后一部分全面总结了文章的研究结论。本文通过对煤炭物流园区项目进行风险评价,建立了该项目的风险评价指标体系和风险评价模型,并将其运用到多伦大河口煤炭物流园区项目中,为项目的风险防范提供了一定的指导。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the accelerated pace of industrialization in the Xilingol League of Inner Mongolia, the development of coal resources in the whole League is also increasing. By 2010, the whole league plans to produce 80 million tons of coal, of which 20 million tons will be converted on the spot, the remaining 80 million tons will be transported by railway and 40 tons by road. The exploitation of coal resources has led to the popularity of the coal trading markets in Ximeng region. However, these coal trading markets are spontaneous, lacking a unified layout and planning, and operating in a state of disorder, which brings a lot of inconvenience to market management. Therefore, it is necessary to invest in a comprehensive coal logistics park. As a complex project with large investment and long construction period, the coal logistics park faces risks from many aspects in the process of construction and operation. It directly affects the management effect of the park. Therefore, this paper has important guiding significance to study the investment risk of Dulundahekou Coal Logistics Park. This paper takes the risk evaluation of Dulundahekou coal logistics park as the main research content. Firstly, it introduces the domestic and foreign research status of the project risk evaluation and the related theoretical basis of the coal logistics park construction project. Then the third part of the paper introduces the Dulundahekou Coal Logistics Park and risk assessment related to the detailed situation, including the external conditions of the project, market demand status and forecast; The fourth part is based on the principles and purposes of risk identification, using a combination of various methods to identify the project risk, and finally determine the natural risk, policy risk, market risk. Financial risk and management risk, five first-level risks and a number of second-tier risks; The fifth part first establishes the risk evaluation index system of Dulundahekou Coal Logistics Park according to the conclusion in the above part, then selects the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the analytic hierarchy process and the expert scoring method quantifies these risk indicators and gives weight to them. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation of project risk is carried out. The conclusion is that the overall project of Dulundahekou Coal Logistics Park is general risk, market risk, financial risk and management risk are relatively large, and the project construction is feasible. The last part of this paper summarizes the conclusion of this paper. Through the risk evaluation of the coal logistics park project, this paper establishes the risk evaluation index system and risk evaluation model of the project, and applies it to the Dulundahekou coal logistics park project. It provides some guidance for the risk prevention of the project.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.21;F259.27

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