供应链视角下我国石油贸易海上安全风险评估及对策研究

发布时间：2018-11-23 12:23

【摘要】：加入WTO后,通过与世界各国的经济合作和往来,中国的对外经济有了迅速的发展,每年以接近300%的的速度在发展。同时,我国正处在快速发展工业化的时期,对于石油的需求缺口非常大,据数据统计,我国对国外物资的进口中有90%以上是通过海洋运输实现的。由于我国目前的经济发展是建立在高投入、高消耗的基础上,即使我国是世界上的资源大国也满足不了经济发展的需求,所以很多战略物资都需要从国际采购市场上购买。在所有的进口产品中,石油的进口状况对国内生产的影响是最大的。而近年来我国对石油、铁矿石、粮食等关系国计民生的战略物资的进口量逐年增大,对外依存度也逐年上升。根据《BP世界能源统计年鉴》数据,世界跨区原油贸易量在2001-2011年鉴的年增长率仅为1.71%,同期中国原油净进口量年增长率13.99%。与之相对应的原油进口依存度从2000年的28.2%上升到2012年的56.97%,进口量大幅度增长。在过去的五年里,中国与美国的石油净进口量的差距在逐渐减少。外国媒体预计,2013年末到2014年初,中国将超越美国成为全球最大的石油净进口国。随着我国对外贸易量的发展,我国对海洋的依赖程度也越来越大,不同方面的风险因素都严重威胁的我国进口战略物资的供应链安全,导致供应链中断或是失败,严重影响了国内的经济发展。目前影响我国石油贸易海上供应链安全的因素正在不断增加,我国能否在购买战略物资时解决“买得到”、“买得起”、“运得回”的问题。通过分析我国石油进口的数据,我们中国石油进口的对外依存度非常高,尽管在2013年1月25的能源十二五规划中计划在2015年中国原油的对外依存度控制在61%内,但是根据2012上半年的对外依存度59.4%的数据,中国如何实现2015年的目标呢? 本文在分析了影响我国战略物资海航贸易供应链安全的风险因素后,根据风险评估的模糊性特点,对物资进口来源地的多元性、对外依存度度、海洋运输过程和航线等进行了分析和模糊评价,并根据风险因素提出了对应的规避风险的措施,通过实现多元化,供应来源地和供应商的多元化；通过提高中国船公司的运力能力；通过提高我国在国际市场上定价能力等方式来规避风险。希望可以对日后中国的战略物资进口的安全性提出有利的意见或建议。
[Abstract]:After China's entry into WTO, China's foreign economy has developed rapidly through economic cooperation and contacts with other countries, and it is developing at a rate of nearly 300% every year. At the same time, our country is in the period of rapid development and industrialization, and the demand for oil is very large. According to the statistics, more than 90% of the imports of foreign materials are realized by sea transportation. Because the current economic development of our country is based on high input and high consumption, even if our country is a large country of resources in the world, it can not meet the demand of economic development, so many strategic goods need to be purchased from the international purchasing market. Of all imported products, oil imports have the greatest impact on domestic production. In recent years, China's imports of strategic goods related to the national economy and people's livelihood have increased year by year, and the degree of dependence on foreign countries has also increased year by year. According to the data of BP World Energy Statistics Yearbook, the annual growth rate of the volume of world inter-regional crude oil trade is only 1.71% in the 2001-2011 yearbook, and the annual growth rate of China's net crude oil import volume is 13.99% in the same period. The relative dependence on crude oil imports rose from 28.2 percent in 2000 to 56.97 percent in 2012, with a sharp increase in imports. Over the past five years, the gap in net oil imports between China and the United States has dwindled. Foreign media expect China to overtake the United States as the world's largest net oil importer by late 2013 and early 2014. With the development of China's foreign trade, our country is more and more dependent on the sea. The security of our import strategic goods supply chain is seriously threatened by different risk factors, which leads to the interruption or failure of the supply chain. Seriously affected the domestic economic development. At present, the factors affecting the safety of China's oil supply chain on the sea are increasing. Can we solve the problems of "buying", "affordability" and "shipping back" when purchasing strategic goods? By analyzing the data on China's oil imports, we find that China's oil imports have a very high degree of external dependence, although in the 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy on January 25, 2013, we plan to control the external dependence of China's crude oil within 61% in 2015. But how can China meet the 2015 target, based on 59.4% of its foreign dependence in the first half of 2012? After analyzing the risk factors that affect the supply chain security of HNA, according to the fuzzy characteristics of risk assessment, this paper analyzes the diversity of material import sources and the degree of dependence on foreign countries. The process and route of marine transportation are analyzed and fuzzy evaluated, and the corresponding measures to avoid risk are put forward according to the risk factors. Through the diversification, the supply sources and suppliers are diversified. By improving the capacity of Chinese shipping companies and by improving our pricing ability in the international market to avoid risks. It is hoped that it will be beneficial to the safety of China's import of strategic goods in the future.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.22;F752.61

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