我国通信设备制造业的关联度分析

发布时间：2018-11-28 17:21

【摘要】：经过改革开放30多年的发展,我国通信设备制造业已经逐步走出了模仿阶段；研发与创新能力不断增强,形成了一个较为完整的产业体系。在只能遵从其他国家通信企业制定的通信标准之后,我国终于也拥有了自己的第三代移动通信标准—-TD-SCDMA。在行业不断发展的同时,如华为、烽火科技、中兴等一批中国本土的通信制造企业也在不断成长壮大,并且逐步走出去到国际上和传统的通信设备制造巨头竞争,取得了丰硕的成果。尤其是,华为在2012年的净利润已经超过了爱立信,营业额成为了全球第二,代表着我国通信设备制造业已经进入了国际巨头之列。而通信设备制造业本身由于具有高技术、高知识含量等特点成为了高技术产业、信息产业和电子信息产业的代表产业。在2008年金融危机之后,由于受到全球经济低迷的影响,我国通信设备制造业的出口受到了重创,各种产品的经济指标持续低迷。但是在国家宏观政策刺激下,特别是在3G项目大规模建设的带动下,我国通信设备制造业正逐步回到了正轨,各项经济指标都在回稳。但是由于金融危机的阴霾尚未散尽,在全球经济尚未完全复苏并且经济形势尚不明朗的背景之下,清晰且准确地定位我国通信设备制造业在整个国民经济中的地位,了解围绕着通信设备制造业有哪些相关密切产业?通信设备制造业和这些相关产业的关联度具体是多少?我国通信设备制造业与国民经济之间的影响程度和依赖程度是怎么样的?以及了解通信设备制造业的产业波和波效应的情况。这都有助于准确地了解我国通信设备制造业以及确立通信设备制造业在国民经济中的地位。并有针对性地制定我国通信设备制造业的发展规划和经济政策,充分发挥通信设备制造业的高科技产业扩散效应,在促进通信设备制造业自身平稳高效发展的同时,更可以推动和带动国民经济总体协调有效发展。本文采用了中国国家统计局发布的2007年135×135部门的投入产出表,将其中的通信设备制造业作为着眼点,定量的分析了通信设备制造业的关联度,包括通信设备制造业的直接后向关联度、完全后向关联度、直接前向关联度、完全前向关联度。并结合感应度系数和影响力系数来分析通信设备制造业对相关产业的直接和间接作用。通过感应度系数和影响力系数的计算,确定我国通信设备制造业是敏感关联型的产业,并且对前向产业和后向产业都有强烈的影响力。通过生产诱发系数和最终依赖度的分析确定在国民总体经济中各项最终需求对我国通信设备制造业推动程度和通信设备制造业对各项最终需求的依赖关系。本文的研究对我国电信业尤其是我国通信设备制造业的分析模式提供了新的思路。并针对得出的关联度数据,给出了制定决策建议的参考依据。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China's communication equipment manufacturing industry has gradually stepped out of the imitation stage, and its R & D and innovation capabilities have been continuously enhanced, forming a relatively complete industrial system. After only complying with the communication standards formulated by other countries' communication enterprises, China finally has its own third generation mobile communication standard, TD-SCDMA.. While the industry continues to develop, such as Huawei, Fiberhome Technology, ZTE and other local Chinese telecommunications manufacturing enterprises are also growing and growing, and gradually going out to compete with the traditional communications equipment manufacturing giants. Fruitful results have been achieved. In particular, Huawei has surpassed Ericsson in net profit in 2012, making its turnover the second largest in the world, indicating that China's telecommunications equipment manufacturing industry has entered the list of international giants. The communication equipment manufacturing industry has become the representative industry of high technology, information industry and electronic information industry because of its characteristics of high technology and high knowledge content. After the financial crisis in 2008, because of the global economic downturn, the export of China's communications equipment manufacturing industry has been hit hard, and the economic indicators of various products continue to be depressed. However, under the stimulus of national macro policy, especially driven by the large-scale construction of 3G projects, China's telecommunications equipment manufacturing industry is gradually returning to the right track, and all economic indicators are stabilizing. However, as the haze of the financial crisis has not disappeared, under the background that the global economy has not fully recovered and the economic situation is still unclear, the position of China's telecommunications equipment manufacturing industry in the whole national economy is clearly and accurately located. What are the closely related industries around the communications equipment manufacturing industry? What is the relationship between the communication equipment manufacturing industry and these related industries? What is the degree of influence and dependence between the communication equipment manufacturing industry and the national economy? And understand the communication equipment manufacturing industry wave and wave effect. All these are helpful to understand accurately the communication equipment manufacturing industry in China and to establish the position of communication equipment manufacturing industry in the national economy. And the development plan and economic policy of China's communication equipment manufacturing industry should be formulated in order to give full play to the diffusion effect of high technology industry in communication equipment manufacturing industry, and promote the smooth and efficient development of communication equipment manufacturing industry itself at the same time. More can promote and drive the overall coordinated and effective development of the national economy. In this paper, the input-output table of 135 脳 135 departments issued by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in 2007 is adopted. The communication equipment manufacturing industry is regarded as the starting point, and the correlation degree of the communication equipment manufacturing industry is analyzed quantitatively. It includes the direct backward correlation degree, the complete backward correlation degree, the direct forward correlation degree and the complete forward correlation degree of the communication equipment manufacturing industry. The direct and indirect effects of communication equipment manufacturing on related industries are analyzed by combining sensitivity coefficient and influence coefficient. Through the calculation of sensitivity coefficient and influence coefficient, it is determined that China's communication equipment manufacturing industry is a sensitive and interrelated industry, and has strong influence on both forward and backward industries. Through the analysis of the production inducement coefficient and the final dependence degree, the relationship between the final demand and the final demand of the communication equipment manufacturing industry in our country and the final demand of the communication equipment manufacturing industry in the national economy is determined. The research in this paper provides a new idea for the analysis mode of telecommunication industry, especially the telecommunication equipment manufacturing industry in China. According to the data of correlation degree, the reference basis for making decision-making suggestion is given.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.6

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