全寿命周期成本理论在电力设备投资决策中的应用
发布时间：2018-12-14 15:19
【摘要】：电力是关系到国家经济社会发展命脉的战略性能源。近年来,国家不断加大对电网的投入,电网建设处于高速发展阶段。电力设备投资是电网企业固定资产投资的重要组成部分,投资决策的成败关系到电力企业的成本、资金利用率乃至企业在市场化改革中的竞争力和生存能力。目前电力设备采购过程中普遍存在重短期成本轻长期成本的现象,因此在电力设备投资决策过程中,如何从系统整体目标出发,统筹考虑电力设备采购、运行、维护、故障、报废等全过程,在满足安全、效能的前提下追求设备全寿命周期成本最低,实现系统最优是值得深入研究的一个课题。本文针对传统电力设备采购过程中偏重于一次性投入因素,对设备后期投入估计不足甚至忽略的特点,将全寿命周期成本(LCC)理论引入电力设备投资决策中。对电力设备全寿命周期成本进行细化,将其划分为初始投入成本、运行成本、维护成本、故障成本、报废成本五部分内容。具体工作如下：1、阐述了全寿命周期成本的概念、特点等内容,构建了电力设备全寿命周期费用分解结构(CBS),建立了各组成费用的估算关系式,结合资金的时间价值概念确定了电力设备全寿命周期成本估算模型。2、用区间理论来处理电力设备参数中存在的不确定性,介绍了区间的概念、运算等内容,建立了基于区间分析法的全寿命周期成本模型,运用于具体实例得出结论,选出最优方案。3、采用盲数理论来处理电力设备中存在的多种不确定信息,建立基于盲数的全寿命周期成本估算模型,通过开关设备AIS和GIS选型的算例来说明基于盲数理论的全寿命周期成本估算法具有实用性和合理性。4、引入了神经网络对电力设备进行全寿命周期成本估算可以使复杂的计算过程变得简单,使具有主观因素的计算过程变得更为客观,并且通过对500kV变电站建设中变压器的四种备选方案进行全寿命周期成本神经网络分析,选出最经济的方案。5、用一般净现值法对电力设备中变压器和开关设备的两种备选方案的全寿命周期成本进行了估算,将各项成本在全寿命周期内的具体数据通过表的形式显示出来,选出最优方案。最后将以上介绍的四种估算全寿命周期成本的方法进行了分析比较,总结出它们的优点以及各自适用的范围。6、设计并完成了电力设备全寿命周期成本估算平台的搭建,实现了电力设备全寿命周期成本的Web发布。提出了B/S模式下构建电力设备全寿命周期成本管理平台,客户只需打开网页,登录浏览器就可获取相关电力设备参数信息。让客户在采购电力设备时更直观、方便地做出决策。将全寿命周期成本理论应用于电力设备投资决策中能够提高采购效率,将设备多阶段目标统一起来,达到整体和系统的最优,具有重要的经济价值。
[Abstract]:Electric power is the strategic energy related to the national economic and social development. In recent years, the state has been increasing investment in the grid, power grid construction is in a high-speed stage of development. Power equipment investment is an important part of fixed assets investment in power grid enterprises. The success or failure of investment decision is related to the cost of electric power enterprises, the utilization rate of funds, and the competitiveness and survival ability of enterprises in the market-oriented reform. At present, in the process of purchasing power equipment, there is a phenomenon that the short-term cost is more important than the long-term cost. Therefore, in the decision-making process of power equipment investment, how to consider the purchase, operation, maintenance and failure of power equipment from the overall goal of the system as a whole, It is worth further study to pursue the lowest life-cycle cost of equipment under the premise of safety and efficiency in the whole process such as scrap and so on. The realization of system optimization is worthy of further study. In view of the fact that the traditional purchasing process of electric power equipment is focused on one-off input factors and the late investment estimation is not enough or even ignored, this paper introduces the life-cycle cost (LCC) theory into power equipment investment decision making. The whole life cycle cost of power equipment is refined and divided into five parts: initial input cost, operation cost, maintenance cost, fault cost and scrap cost. The main works are as follows: 1. The concept and characteristics of life-cycle cost are expounded, and the (CBS), structure of power equipment life-cycle cost decomposition structure is constructed. Combined with the concept of time value of funds, the cost estimation model of the whole life cycle of power equipment is established. 2. The uncertainty existing in the parameters of power equipment is treated with interval theory, and the concept and operation of interval are introduced. The whole life cycle cost model based on interval analysis is established, and the conclusion is drawn from a concrete example. 3. The blind number theory is used to deal with many kinds of uncertain information in power equipment. The life cycle cost estimation model based on blind number is established, and the feasibility and rationality of the whole life cycle cost estimation method based on blind number theory are illustrated by the examples of AIS and GIS selection of switchgear. The neural network is introduced to estimate the life-cycle cost of power equipment, which makes the complicated calculation process simple and the calculation process with subjective factors more objective. And through the analysis of the four alternatives of transformer in the construction of 500kV substation, the cost of the whole life cycle neural network is analyzed, and the most economical scheme is selected. The total life cycle cost of transformer and switchgear in power equipment is estimated by using the method of general net present value (NPV). The concrete data of each cost in the whole life cycle are displayed through the form of table, and the optimal scheme is selected. Finally, the four methods to estimate the life-cycle cost are analyzed and compared, and their advantages and scope of application are summarized. 6. Finally, a platform for estimating the life-cycle cost of power equipment is designed and completed. The Web issue of the whole life cycle cost of power equipment is realized. In this paper, it is proposed to construct a life-cycle cost management platform for power equipment in B / S mode. Customers need only open the web page and log in to the browser to obtain the relevant power equipment parameter information. Enable customers to make decisions more intuitively and conveniently when purchasing power equipment. The application of life-cycle cost theory to power equipment investment decision-making can improve the purchasing efficiency, unify the multi-stage objectives of equipment, and achieve the overall and systematic optimization, which has important economic value.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F406.72
[Abstract]:Electric power is the strategic energy related to the national economic and social development. In recent years, the state has been increasing investment in the grid, power grid construction is in a high-speed stage of development. Power equipment investment is an important part of fixed assets investment in power grid enterprises. The success or failure of investment decision is related to the cost of electric power enterprises, the utilization rate of funds, and the competitiveness and survival ability of enterprises in the market-oriented reform. At present, in the process of purchasing power equipment, there is a phenomenon that the short-term cost is more important than the long-term cost. Therefore, in the decision-making process of power equipment investment, how to consider the purchase, operation, maintenance and failure of power equipment from the overall goal of the system as a whole, It is worth further study to pursue the lowest life-cycle cost of equipment under the premise of safety and efficiency in the whole process such as scrap and so on. The realization of system optimization is worthy of further study. In view of the fact that the traditional purchasing process of electric power equipment is focused on one-off input factors and the late investment estimation is not enough or even ignored, this paper introduces the life-cycle cost (LCC) theory into power equipment investment decision making. The whole life cycle cost of power equipment is refined and divided into five parts: initial input cost, operation cost, maintenance cost, fault cost and scrap cost. The main works are as follows: 1. The concept and characteristics of life-cycle cost are expounded, and the (CBS), structure of power equipment life-cycle cost decomposition structure is constructed. Combined with the concept of time value of funds, the cost estimation model of the whole life cycle of power equipment is established. 2. The uncertainty existing in the parameters of power equipment is treated with interval theory, and the concept and operation of interval are introduced. The whole life cycle cost model based on interval analysis is established, and the conclusion is drawn from a concrete example. 3. The blind number theory is used to deal with many kinds of uncertain information in power equipment. The life cycle cost estimation model based on blind number is established, and the feasibility and rationality of the whole life cycle cost estimation method based on blind number theory are illustrated by the examples of AIS and GIS selection of switchgear. The neural network is introduced to estimate the life-cycle cost of power equipment, which makes the complicated calculation process simple and the calculation process with subjective factors more objective. And through the analysis of the four alternatives of transformer in the construction of 500kV substation, the cost of the whole life cycle neural network is analyzed, and the most economical scheme is selected. The total life cycle cost of transformer and switchgear in power equipment is estimated by using the method of general net present value (NPV). The concrete data of each cost in the whole life cycle are displayed through the form of table, and the optimal scheme is selected. Finally, the four methods to estimate the life-cycle cost are analyzed and compared, and their advantages and scope of application are summarized. 6. Finally, a platform for estimating the life-cycle cost of power equipment is designed and completed. The Web issue of the whole life cycle cost of power equipment is realized. In this paper, it is proposed to construct a life-cycle cost management platform for power equipment in B / S mode. Customers need only open the web page and log in to the browser to obtain the relevant power equipment parameter information. Enable customers to make decisions more intuitively and conveniently when purchasing power equipment. The application of life-cycle cost theory to power equipment investment decision-making can improve the purchasing efficiency, unify the multi-stage objectives of equipment, and achieve the overall and systematic optimization, which has important economic value.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F406.72
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 沈广;苏海锋;袁U，
本文编号：2378836
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