能源制约条件下中国汽车产业的转型研究
发布时间：2019-02-12 16:28
【摘要】：随着我国经济的高速发展,我国能源(一次能源)消费量2011年已达到26.1亿吨石油当量,连续两年超过美国位列全球第一,但我国的石油自给率却在逐年下降。从我国的能源供给来看,我国存在缺油、少气、多煤的能源结构特点,石油自给率2011年仅为44.1%。从汽车保有量方面来看,2010年我国的汽车保有量已达到7802万辆,但每千人汽车保有量仅为60辆,与世界平均保有量水平(每千人139辆)存在较大差距,仅相当于美国1918年和日本1965年的水平。未来30年我国汽车保有量还将处于快速增长期,2012年汽车产业发展报告指出,预计2020年,我国汽车保有量将达到2.2亿～2.5亿辆,2030年将达到3.6亿～3.9亿辆。这种汽车保有量的快速增长必将带来石油的快速消耗和对环境的极大污染。因此,在汽车总保有量持续增长的背景下,大力发展节能与新能源汽车,在降低单车油耗的同时,加大天然气、生物燃料、电能、氢气对石油的替代力度,减缓石油消耗的增长势头,把石油对外依存度控制在一定范围,既是我国能源安全战略的重要举措,也是我国车用能源战略的必然选择。 本文参考《BP世界能源统计》、《中国统计年鉴》、《汽车工业统计年鉴》等权威数据,首先分析全球能源消费结构、我国传统能源消费结构和特点以及我国交通能源消费变化,得出我国的石油储量较低,石油消费自给率逐年下降。进而根据环保的要求,指出能源紧缺与价格上涨、环保与汽车尾气排放标准、新能源开发问题是我国汽车产业转型的三大背景,并同时对主要国家的汽车产业转型的经验和新能源汽车发展的取向进行详细分析,以期找到全球汽车产业转型的方向,其次对我国汽车产业转型进行分析,主要包括我国汽车产业产销量及保有量、我国推动汽车产业转型的政策与目标以及我国新能源汽车的发展进程,发展进程主要从电动汽车整车的产业化现状、主要汽车企业新能源汽车生产现状及新能源汽车的优缺点三方面进行分析。最后总结出我国新能源汽车发展所面临的主要问题,包括能源成本、产销规模及购入和使用成本,进而提出自己的结论和政策建议,以期推动中国汽车产业良好转型。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, China's energy (primary energy) consumption has reached 2.61 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2011, which ranks first in the world for two consecutive years, but the oil self-sufficiency rate of our country is decreasing year by year. From the point of view of energy supply in our country, the energy structure of our country is short of oil, less gas and more coal. The self-sufficiency rate of petroleum is only 44.1% in 2011. In terms of vehicle ownership, the number of cars held in our country has reached 78.02 million in 2010, but the number of cars per 1,000 people is only 60, which is quite different from the world average level of ownership (139 per 1,000 people). Only equivalent to the United States in 1918 and Japan in 1965. In the next 30 years, China's automobile ownership will also be in a period of rapid growth. The 2012 auto industry development report points out that the number of cars in China is expected to reach 220 million ~ 250 million vehicles in 2020 and 360 million ~ 390 million vehicles in 2030. The rapid increase in the number of such vehicles is bound to bring rapid oil consumption and great environmental pollution. Therefore, under the background of the continuous increase in the total vehicle ownership, we should vigorously develop energy-efficient and new energy vehicles, while reducing the fuel consumption of bicycles, and at the same time increase the substitution of natural gas, biofuel, electric energy, and hydrogen for oil. It is not only an important measure of energy security strategy of our country, but also an inevitable choice of our automobile energy strategy to slow down the increasing momentum of oil consumption and to control the degree of dependence of oil on foreign countries in a certain range. With reference to authoritative data such as BP World Energy Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook and Automotive Industry Statistics Yearbook, this paper first analyzes the global energy consumption structure, the traditional energy consumption structure and characteristics of China, and the changes of China's transportation energy consumption. It is concluded that the oil reserves in China are low and the self-sufficiency rate of oil consumption is decreasing year by year. Furthermore, according to the requirements of environmental protection, it is pointed out that energy shortage and price rise, environmental protection and vehicle exhaust emission standards, and new energy development are the three major backgrounds for the transformation of China's automobile industry. At the same time, the experience of automobile industry transformation in major countries and the orientation of new energy automobile development are analyzed in detail, in order to find out the direction of global automobile industry transformation, and secondly to analyze the transformation of China's automobile industry. It mainly includes the production, sales and quantity of automobile industry in our country, the policy and goal of promoting the transformation of automobile industry in our country, and the development process of new energy automobile in our country. The development process is mainly based on the status quo of the industrialization of the whole electric vehicle. The production status of new energy vehicles and advantages and disadvantages of new energy vehicles are analyzed. Finally, this paper summarizes the main problems facing the development of new energy vehicles in China, including energy cost, production and marketing scale, purchase and use cost, and then puts forward its own conclusions and policy suggestions in order to promote the good transformation of China's automobile industry.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.471
本文编号：2420591
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, China's energy (primary energy) consumption has reached 2.61 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2011, which ranks first in the world for two consecutive years, but the oil self-sufficiency rate of our country is decreasing year by year. From the point of view of energy supply in our country, the energy structure of our country is short of oil, less gas and more coal. The self-sufficiency rate of petroleum is only 44.1% in 2011. In terms of vehicle ownership, the number of cars held in our country has reached 78.02 million in 2010, but the number of cars per 1,000 people is only 60, which is quite different from the world average level of ownership (139 per 1,000 people). Only equivalent to the United States in 1918 and Japan in 1965. In the next 30 years, China's automobile ownership will also be in a period of rapid growth. The 2012 auto industry development report points out that the number of cars in China is expected to reach 220 million ~ 250 million vehicles in 2020 and 360 million ~ 390 million vehicles in 2030. The rapid increase in the number of such vehicles is bound to bring rapid oil consumption and great environmental pollution. Therefore, under the background of the continuous increase in the total vehicle ownership, we should vigorously develop energy-efficient and new energy vehicles, while reducing the fuel consumption of bicycles, and at the same time increase the substitution of natural gas, biofuel, electric energy, and hydrogen for oil. It is not only an important measure of energy security strategy of our country, but also an inevitable choice of our automobile energy strategy to slow down the increasing momentum of oil consumption and to control the degree of dependence of oil on foreign countries in a certain range. With reference to authoritative data such as BP World Energy Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook and Automotive Industry Statistics Yearbook, this paper first analyzes the global energy consumption structure, the traditional energy consumption structure and characteristics of China, and the changes of China's transportation energy consumption. It is concluded that the oil reserves in China are low and the self-sufficiency rate of oil consumption is decreasing year by year. Furthermore, according to the requirements of environmental protection, it is pointed out that energy shortage and price rise, environmental protection and vehicle exhaust emission standards, and new energy development are the three major backgrounds for the transformation of China's automobile industry. At the same time, the experience of automobile industry transformation in major countries and the orientation of new energy automobile development are analyzed in detail, in order to find out the direction of global automobile industry transformation, and secondly to analyze the transformation of China's automobile industry. It mainly includes the production, sales and quantity of automobile industry in our country, the policy and goal of promoting the transformation of automobile industry in our country, and the development process of new energy automobile in our country. The development process is mainly based on the status quo of the industrialization of the whole electric vehicle. The production status of new energy vehicles and advantages and disadvantages of new energy vehicles are analyzed. Finally, this paper summarizes the main problems facing the development of new energy vehicles in China, including energy cost, production and marketing scale, purchase and use cost, and then puts forward its own conclusions and policy suggestions in order to promote the good transformation of China's automobile industry.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.471
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前9条
1 陈柳钦;;我国新能源汽车产业发展面临的问题[J];汽车工业研究;2011年06期
2 张曼茵;;当前影响世界汽车产业发展因素分析[J];上海经济研究;2009年01期
3 陈柳钦;;我国新能源汽车产业发展及其困境摆脱的探讨[J];能源工程;2011年03期
4 曾春花;邹长城;;中国汽车产业技术创新路径依赖分析[J];企业研究;2010年20期
5 陈耀龙;;低碳经济与我国汽车产业低碳化转型[J];中国市场;2010年10期
6 曾庆新;;我国新能源汽车发展探讨[J];上海汽车;2010年12期
7 邱伟冰;;上海新能源汽车产业竞争力分析[J];上海汽车;2012年01期
8 赵大晖,卢凤君,何发,郭锐;汽车工业及其产业政策效应的评估方法综述[J];武汉汽车工业大学学报;2000年02期
9 柳长立;;“城市病”阻碍汽车产业发展[J];中国汽车界;2012年01期
，本文编号：2420591
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/shengchanguanlilunwen/2420591.html
