河南省新能源汽车产业化的风险研究
发布时间：2019-03-15 13:39
【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来,全球范围内石油资源短缺和环境污染问题日益加剧,以燃油为主的传统汽车的普及更增加了能源和环境压力,汽车消耗的石油占总耗油的40%到50%,同时向大气中排放大量的二氧化碳、氮氧化物、硫化物等,节能环保的新能源汽车日益成为汽车产业改革转型的新方向,新能源汽车产业也日益成为各国转移能源与环境压力的新兴产业。 同样,上世纪90年代以来,中国的汽车工业实现了跨越式发展,作为世界最大的汽车消费市场,近年来中国的汽车保有量在急剧上升,2007年年末全国私人轿车拥有量为2876.22万辆,2011年年末已达到7326.79万辆,比2010年末增长23.37%。随着汽车工业的迅速发展,给中国带来了巨大的能源消耗与环境污染,在能源危机与环境污染的双重压力下,发展新能源汽车已经成为我国实现汽车产业升级和持续发展的重要举措。新能源汽车的出现一直被誉为中国汽车产业弯道超车的好机会,但是从汽车行业的国际形势看,中国和欧美、日本的整车技术、零部件技术乃至市场的差距还是很大。 河南省作为国内发展新能源汽车较早的省份,拥有一批基础雄厚的汽车生产企业,并且已经形成相当规模技术先进的锂电池生产企业。地处中原的河南省,还拥有便捷的交通与物流、扎实的工业基础。随着中原经济区的形成与建设,中部崛起的号召与推进,以及河南省得天独厚的优势,为新能源汽车产业的发展提供了广阔的空间。虽然当前在新能源汽车产业发展方面河南省取得了阶段性的成就,但是要实现新能源汽车产业化还需要漫长的道路。任何一项经济活动的发展过程都是与风险并存的,河南省的新能源汽车产业在发展过程中也不可避免的伴随着政策风险、技术风险、市场风险以及运营风险。 本文首先分析了国内外以及河南省的新能源汽车产业发展现状来介绍目前国内外对新能源汽车产业的研究成果,再通过对河南省能源结构发展趋势的预测,用客观数据证实了河南省发展新能源汽车产业的必要性。最后是建立河南省新能源汽车产业化的风险体系,计算河南省新能源汽车产业化风险指标的权重,评价河南省新能源汽车产业的风险。其中运用计量经济学软件EVIEWS建立了ARIMA预测模型以及运用到了客观的权重计算方法—改进的熵值法,以客观的角度重新认识了河南省新能源汽车产业化过程中的风险,针对影响河南省新能源汽车产业发展的关键风险提出相对应的规避对策,从而也希望此篇论文的研究成果能为河南省新能源汽车的产业化发展献出绵薄之力。新能源汽车的产业化需要经历漫长的发展阶段,当技术、市场、运营、政策等各方面都处于成熟阶段时新能源汽车才是真正适应经济社会,为经济社会所应用的一项经济活动。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the shortage of petroleum resources and environmental pollution have become more and more serious around the world. The popularity of traditional cars, which are dominated by fuel, has increased the pressure on energy and the environment. Cars consume 40% to 50% of the total oil consumption. At the same time, emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfides and so on into the atmosphere, energy-saving and environmentally-friendly new energy vehicles are increasingly becoming a new direction for the reform and transformation of the automotive industry. New energy automobile industry has increasingly become a new industry to transfer energy and environmental pressure. Similarly, since the 1990s, China's automobile industry has achieved great-leap-forward development, as the world's largest car consumption market, in recent years, China's car ownership has risen sharply. Private car ownership reached 28.7622 million at the end of 2007 and 73.2679 million at the end of 2011, up 23.37 percent from the end of 2010. With the rapid development of automobile industry, it has brought huge energy consumption and environmental pollution to China. Under the double pressure of energy crisis and environmental pollution, The development of new energy vehicles has become an important measure to realize the upgrading and sustainable development of automobile industry in China. The emergence of new energy vehicles has always been regarded as a good opportunity for China's automobile industry to overtake. But from the international situation of automobile industry, there is still a great gap between China, Europe and the United States and Japan in vehicle technology, spare parts technology and even the market. Henan Province, as a province with the early development of new energy vehicles in China, has a number of strong-based automobile production enterprises, and has formed a considerable scale of advanced technology lithium battery production enterprises. Henan Province, located in the Central Plains, also has convenient transportation and logistics, a solid industrial foundation. With the formation and construction of the Central Plains Economic Zone, the call and promotion of the rise of the Central China, and the unique advantages of Henan Province, it provides a broad space for the development of the new energy automobile industry. Although Henan Province has made some achievements in the development of new energy automobile industry at present, it still needs a long way to realize the industrialization of new energy automobile. The development process of any economic activity is co-existing with risk. The new energy automobile industry in Henan Province is inevitably accompanied by policy risk, technical risk, market risk and operational risk in the process of development. This paper first analyzes the development of new energy automobile industry at home and abroad as well as Henan Province to introduce the research results of new energy automobile industry at home and abroad, and then forecasts the development trend of energy structure in Henan Province. The necessity of developing new energy automobile industry in Henan province is confirmed by objective data. Finally, the risk system of new energy automobile industrialization in Henan province is established, the weight of risk index of new energy automobile industrialization in Henan province is calculated, and the risk of new energy automobile industry in Henan province is evaluated. The econometrics software EVIEWS is used to establish the ARIMA prediction model and the improved entropy method, which is an objective weight calculation method, to re-understand the risks in the industrialization of new energy vehicles in Henan Province from an objective point of view. In view of the key risks affecting the development of new energy automobile industry in Henan Province, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward, and the research results of this paper are also hoped to contribute a little to the industrialization development of new energy vehicles in Henan Province. The industrialization of new energy vehicle needs to go through a long period of development. When technology, market, operation, policy and other aspects are in mature stage, new energy vehicle is a kind of economic activity that adapts to the economy and society and is applied for the economy and society.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.471
本文编号：2440679
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the shortage of petroleum resources and environmental pollution have become more and more serious around the world. The popularity of traditional cars, which are dominated by fuel, has increased the pressure on energy and the environment. Cars consume 40% to 50% of the total oil consumption. At the same time, emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfides and so on into the atmosphere, energy-saving and environmentally-friendly new energy vehicles are increasingly becoming a new direction for the reform and transformation of the automotive industry. New energy automobile industry has increasingly become a new industry to transfer energy and environmental pressure. Similarly, since the 1990s, China's automobile industry has achieved great-leap-forward development, as the world's largest car consumption market, in recent years, China's car ownership has risen sharply. Private car ownership reached 28.7622 million at the end of 2007 and 73.2679 million at the end of 2011, up 23.37 percent from the end of 2010. With the rapid development of automobile industry, it has brought huge energy consumption and environmental pollution to China. Under the double pressure of energy crisis and environmental pollution, The development of new energy vehicles has become an important measure to realize the upgrading and sustainable development of automobile industry in China. The emergence of new energy vehicles has always been regarded as a good opportunity for China's automobile industry to overtake. But from the international situation of automobile industry, there is still a great gap between China, Europe and the United States and Japan in vehicle technology, spare parts technology and even the market. Henan Province, as a province with the early development of new energy vehicles in China, has a number of strong-based automobile production enterprises, and has formed a considerable scale of advanced technology lithium battery production enterprises. Henan Province, located in the Central Plains, also has convenient transportation and logistics, a solid industrial foundation. With the formation and construction of the Central Plains Economic Zone, the call and promotion of the rise of the Central China, and the unique advantages of Henan Province, it provides a broad space for the development of the new energy automobile industry. Although Henan Province has made some achievements in the development of new energy automobile industry at present, it still needs a long way to realize the industrialization of new energy automobile. The development process of any economic activity is co-existing with risk. The new energy automobile industry in Henan Province is inevitably accompanied by policy risk, technical risk, market risk and operational risk in the process of development. This paper first analyzes the development of new energy automobile industry at home and abroad as well as Henan Province to introduce the research results of new energy automobile industry at home and abroad, and then forecasts the development trend of energy structure in Henan Province. The necessity of developing new energy automobile industry in Henan province is confirmed by objective data. Finally, the risk system of new energy automobile industrialization in Henan province is established, the weight of risk index of new energy automobile industrialization in Henan province is calculated, and the risk of new energy automobile industry in Henan province is evaluated. The econometrics software EVIEWS is used to establish the ARIMA prediction model and the improved entropy method, which is an objective weight calculation method, to re-understand the risks in the industrialization of new energy vehicles in Henan Province from an objective point of view. In view of the key risks affecting the development of new energy automobile industry in Henan Province, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward, and the research results of this paper are also hoped to contribute a little to the industrialization development of new energy vehicles in Henan Province. The industrialization of new energy vehicle needs to go through a long period of development. When technology, market, operation, policy and other aspects are in mature stage, new energy vehicle is a kind of economic activity that adapts to the economy and society and is applied for the economy and society.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.471
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