我国制造业企业发展与碳排放关系的实证研究
发布时间：2019-03-17 10:13
【摘要】：中国作为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国,其碳排放主要来源于工业排放。工业是推动我国经济发展的主导力量,工业经济发展对能源消耗的需求主要取决于制造业企业的发展。工业部门碳排放的60%来源于中国制造业能源消耗,中国制造业企业的能源消耗以及由此导致的碳排放占工业部门能源消耗及总碳排放的比重高于其他行业企业。因此研究制造业企业发展与碳排放间的相关关系,分析不同碳排放影响因素的影响度,探析促进制造业企业实现碳减排的对策与建议具有重要作用。 本文首先研究环境库兹涅茨理论,并对该理论在国内外环境污染与经济发展间的延伸拓展应用及实证分析进行总结,最后对碳排放影响因素的研究方法、研究范围和研究结论进行分析。在理论研究的基础上,结合我国碳排放高危、次危、相对安全制造业企业能源消耗数据计算所得碳排放量,从制造业企业数、资产总额、总产值及从业人员等方面阐述制造业发展现状,并进行脱钩状态分析。 其次,在实证研究中本文对现状分析整理所得的基础数据(制造业GDP、碳排放高危制造业企业碳排放量X1、碳排放次危制造业企业碳排放量X2、碳排放相对安全制造业企业碳排放量X3)利用Eviews6.0软件进行制造业企业发展与碳排放间关系的实证测算。ADF单位根检验显示各变量为二阶单整序列,利用Johansen检验显示变量间存在一个协整方程LnGDP=1.3439LnX1-2.0154LnX2+1.6692LnX3,且LnGDP是LnX1、LnX2、LnX3的格兰杰原因,而LnX1、LnXn、LnX3却并非LnGDP的格兰杰原因。然后利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解,进一步解释LnX1、LnX2、LnX3对LnGDP的反应程度及贡献度。 再次,利用改进的STIRPAT模型对制造业企业碳排放(Ⅰ)的影响因素制造业固定资产投资(F)、制造业从业人员(P)、制造业GDP(A)、制造业技术水平即能源利用效率(T)取对数进行影响度分析。首先进行OLS回归分析发现该变量间存在多重共线性;为消除共线性进行岭回归分析,利用岭迹图及方差膨胀因子法确定k值,并求得该k值下的标准化岭回归方程及制造业企业碳排放影响因素的STIRPAT模型：分析发现LnF、LnP、LnA与LnI间为正向相关关系,而LnT与LnI间为负向相关关系,各变量与LnI的相关关系与预期假设基本相符,且LnP对LnI的影响程度最高,LnA次之;但是LnT对LnI的影响程度较弱,技术进步导致的碳排放量的降低远不及上述三变量所带来的碳排放量的增长。 最后,本文从政府和制造业企业两个角度结合上述分析结果提出了促进制造业企业碳减排的对策和建议,为实现国家减排目标、走可持续发展的低碳道路具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China's carbon emissions come mainly from industrial emissions. Industry is the leading force to promote the economic development of our country. The demand for energy consumption in the industrial economic development mainly depends on the development of manufacturing enterprises. 60% of the carbon emissions in the industrial sector come from the energy consumption of the Chinese manufacturing industry. The energy consumption of the Chinese manufacturing enterprises and the resulting carbon emissions account for more energy consumption and total carbon emissions in the industrial sector than in other industries. Therefore, it is important to study the relationship between the development of manufacturing enterprises and carbon emissions, to analyze the influence degree of different carbon emission factors, and to explore the countermeasures and suggestions to promote manufacturing enterprises to achieve carbon emission reduction. This paper first studies the environmental Kuznets theory, and summarizes the extended application and empirical analysis of the theory between environmental pollution and economic development at home and abroad. Finally, the research methods of influencing factors of carbon emissions are discussed. The scope and conclusion of the study were analyzed. On the basis of theoretical research, combined with the energy consumption data of high-risk, sub-dangerous and relatively safe manufacturing enterprises in China, the carbon emissions are calculated from the number of manufacturing enterprises and the total amount of assets. Gross output value and employees and so on elaborated the manufacturing industry development present situation, and carries on the decoupling state analysis. Secondly, in the empirical study, this paper analyzes and collates the basic data (manufacturing GDP, carbon emissions of high-risk manufacturing enterprises carbon emissions X1, carbon emissions of secondary-risk manufacturing enterprises carbon emissions X2, Relative carbon emissions of manufacturing enterprises X3) using Eviews6.0 software to measure the relationship between the development of manufacturing enterprises and carbon emissions, the unit root test shows that each variable is a second-order single integral sequence. The Johansen test shows that there exists a cointegration equation LnGDP=1.3439LnX1-2.0154LnX2 1.6692 LnX3 between variables, and LnGDP is the Granger cause of LnX1,LnX2,LnX3, while LnX1,LnXn,LnX3 is not the Granger cause of LnGDP. Then, by using impulse response function and variance decomposition, the degree of response and contribution of LnX1,LnX2,LnX3 to LnGDP is further explained. Thirdly, using the improved STIRPAT model to influence the carbon emissions of manufacturing enterprises (鈪，
本文编号：2442195
[Abstract]:As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China's carbon emissions come mainly from industrial emissions. Industry is the leading force to promote the economic development of our country. The demand for energy consumption in the industrial economic development mainly depends on the development of manufacturing enterprises. 60% of the carbon emissions in the industrial sector come from the energy consumption of the Chinese manufacturing industry. The energy consumption of the Chinese manufacturing enterprises and the resulting carbon emissions account for more energy consumption and total carbon emissions in the industrial sector than in other industries. Therefore, it is important to study the relationship between the development of manufacturing enterprises and carbon emissions, to analyze the influence degree of different carbon emission factors, and to explore the countermeasures and suggestions to promote manufacturing enterprises to achieve carbon emission reduction. This paper first studies the environmental Kuznets theory, and summarizes the extended application and empirical analysis of the theory between environmental pollution and economic development at home and abroad. Finally, the research methods of influencing factors of carbon emissions are discussed. The scope and conclusion of the study were analyzed. On the basis of theoretical research, combined with the energy consumption data of high-risk, sub-dangerous and relatively safe manufacturing enterprises in China, the carbon emissions are calculated from the number of manufacturing enterprises and the total amount of assets. Gross output value and employees and so on elaborated the manufacturing industry development present situation, and carries on the decoupling state analysis. Secondly, in the empirical study, this paper analyzes and collates the basic data (manufacturing GDP, carbon emissions of high-risk manufacturing enterprises carbon emissions X1, carbon emissions of secondary-risk manufacturing enterprises carbon emissions X2, Relative carbon emissions of manufacturing enterprises X3) using Eviews6.0 software to measure the relationship between the development of manufacturing enterprises and carbon emissions, the unit root test shows that each variable is a second-order single integral sequence. The Johansen test shows that there exists a cointegration equation LnGDP=1.3439LnX1-2.0154LnX2 1.6692 LnX3 between variables, and LnGDP is the Granger cause of LnX1,LnX2,LnX3, while LnX1,LnXn,LnX3 is not the Granger cause of LnGDP. Then, by using impulse response function and variance decomposition, the degree of response and contribution of LnX1,LnX2,LnX3 to LnGDP is further explained. Thirdly, using the improved STIRPAT model to influence the carbon emissions of manufacturing enterprises (鈪，
本文编号：2442195
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